tnweathernut
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Everything posted by tnweathernut
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Used to be when the Euro and UK were in lockstep with each other 3-4 days out you could go ahead and dust off your snow shovel.
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It's obvious there are two camps this am, but the ensembles tells me there's a great degree of uncertainty between those two camps at this point. As long as you set your expectation level low, it's pretty easy to take the swings (or in this case, Sherman's march to the northwest). Just a hunch, but I think the trend stops at 12z and moves back toward something weaker as shown on the 6z Euro.
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My two cents…. I lean toward the general solution the Euro has, and not just because it shows more winter potential for the weekend. I say that because beyond day 5ish, the GFS is (a lot of the time) too much northern stream (progressive) and not enough southern stream, squashing chances. The Euro (at least in days of old, lol) would handle this setup much better. Interested to see where this week takes us.
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Only a matter of time before the two streams connect and we have another legit trackable snow/ice system, IMO
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It wasn't just that, but at 500 you could see the two streams beginning to phase. Fantasy land, but not an unreasonable solution given where modeling takes us in the LR. Also, the Jan 15th period looked a bit closer than I remember it on the GFS and CMC yesterday.
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I guess we can put that in the bin of things that can screw up a snow event…. It’s a BIG bin.
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I have numerous friends from Nashville to Gallatin, Hendersonville, and Westmoreland. A lot of them scored a 6-8" event and a couple have indicated they received almost 9"... It's been a LONG time since this widespread a snowstorm occurred for the midstate. Happy for them.
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Thanks, Jeff. Were there any changes noted for KTRI?
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Agree, this is crazy talk.
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Makes sense with the speed of the system and limited gulf interaction............
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Weenie rule number 62. Never, and I mean NEVER............ use anything the NAM throws out beyond 36,42 hours. lol
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I might jinx it, but we don’t often get fairly clean opportunities for snow in TN. Hope this is one of those times.
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Steady back to back runs from the Euro. I am still holding out hope this can snow for more of those back west of the TN river.
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6z NAM is north and is a KY snow.
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The overnight global were on board for this event. 6z continued the party. The GFS and RGEM snow maps are below .
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Heavy snow now in north Johnson City. The ground turned white quickly, roads also trying to cave. -
Radar shows all rain here in north Johnson City. I can confirm we are now at least 50/50 snow/rain/mix. No accumulation yet.
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Is this your back yard? If so, that’s AWESOME!! Congrats….
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Just saw the 18z NAM….. Dang, Jeff…. Had no idea your powers were that quick. lol
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3k leaves the door open for more in the mid-south.
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12z NAM 3k looks better for the state of TN as a whole……
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Well it took a lot longer than anticipated, but the 12z NAM finally NAM’d east TN properly.
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@Holston_River_Ramblergood to see each model run (so far) generally holding serve.
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Good luck out that way!
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Rates always trump ground temps. The chance (and a good one at that) is there for a significant snow for east and northeast TN. The mountains likely get plastered with tree snapping concrete. For lower elevations it depends heavily on the strength & track of the low, and timing the change from heavy rain to heavy snow. I’m optimistic, but cautiously so…. It’s good to see MRX bullish, they are generally very conservative
