Chinook

Cleveland heavy snow squall that has developed on the pre-cold front (i.e. there are 2 fronts noted on the WPC surface analysis. The one up by Lake Huron is where the real arctic air is.)

The squall is tracking over the lake now, passing Port Clinton right now.

Local storm reports in the CLE area, Feb 10 to 11

115-mile long band of heavy snow, stretching westward into non-lake-effect-snow territory of Norwalk and Clyde

Sorry about the jumpiness. I did the best I could. I was intending to use UCAR/RAP national radar images, but that web site broke down for a few hours during the storm. Nice satellite/radar/500mb loops!

I made this radar loop so that we would be able to see the storm's features from start to finish. It starts January 22, 0018z, which is when it was transitioning to being a snowstorm for some areas of the South. http://www.greatlakes.salsite.com/Blizzard_of_2016_radar_loop.html

Northeasterly wind lake effect snow... I have still never seen northeasterly wind LES hit Toledo in 20 years of watching the weather

Question: both snowfall with 10-1 snow/liquid ratio with the 4km NAM, 12z run. What is going on with the wiggliness of the Pivotalweather.com depiction of this?

Even though the models have trended east/ with more snow into Indiana, it will likely not be a snowstorm for NW Ohio, not of much impact anyway. The surface to 925mb winds should be pretty strong out of the NW- probably lots of gusts over 25mph for open areas, 12z Sunday to 06z Monday, maybe with some steady snow or flurries. I suppose the LES may visit Cleveland. Note: the 06z GFS and the 12z GFS don't quite agree on wind direction after the storm-- perhaps this means more uncertainty for Cleveland LES. 90 hr GFS sounding over western Lake Erie-- potential for 100-200 J/kg of lake-CAPE, winds at 300 degrees NW. (?)

One of the cool things available now is the Sharppy soundings directly off of the forecast maps on both College of Dupage and Pivotalweather.com. These could be quite helpful for future lake-effect snow scenarios. College of Dupage web site also allows you to view sounding text after generating a sounding. I was playing around with generating a NAM sounding over Lake Erie tomorrow. Pivotalweather allows soundings from the 4km NAM and HRRR too. Unfortunately it doesn't allow adjustments for warm lake temperatures that are above the 2m temperature.

I believe CLE had the 4th warmest November at 48.6 degrees (plus or minus a tenth or so)

GFS is showing some strong winds for the middle of Lake Erie. The NWS zone forecast offshore from Cleveland has 27kt gusting to 36kt Saturday. GFS shows 45kt close to the surface (950mb), Saturday, before the cold sector.

Keeping the lake warm only helps the snowlovers if there is a cold airmass aloft to create the lake effect snow. Personally, I like walking on a frozen Lake Erie, you know, like 5 feet from the shoreline.

Council Bluffs IA just got 9" of rain and a flash flood

some September tornadoes near KC

NW Ohio and NE Indiana both had a very wet summer compared to average. These areas were among the wettest in the country, considering climate division precipitation rankings. NW Ohio climate division had the record wettest summer. link to NOAA (similar plot) http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/service/national/divisionalpcpnrank/201506-201508.gif Summer precipitation in Ohio ranked 114 out of 121 (i.e. it was the 8th wettest summer in 121 years) http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/service/national/statewidepcpnrank/201506-201508.gif

hail and wind reports in Kansas and Nebraska yesterday

Cypress, you may also want to read the Lakes/Ohio Valley severe thread, covering basically the same thing today. Hopefully that helps.

SPC has upgraded the day 2 outlook to enhanced for Minnesota/Iowa including the Twin Cities. The 18z NAM predicts around 300 m2/s2 of SRH tomorrow at 21z in the enhanced risk area.

7.50" of rain measured in Omaha. That's gotta flood something.

Radar at the time of Quincy's report

MCC over the central plains. This radar is from 07z. That's quite a large area that got rain, considering that there were just a few isolated storms in Colorado to start off last night.

that is a pretty massive storm in Mantioba. I think it is developing a new circulation.

There is a severe thunderstorm watch for WY/SD/MT, and a few isolated severe storms starting to pop up. There is almost a dryline pushing eastward in Wyoming, although this isn't really the time of year for drylines. There is 40-50kt of 0-6km shear in Wyoming and Montatna now.

Some places that I drove through today on my 570 mile trek: Lincoln NE made it up to 99 with dew point of 75 this afternoon. heat index of 111.9F Gothenburg NE is now getting dumped on with a severe thunderstorm warning.