Chinook

This is my best interpretation of the storm survey of the Jonesboro tornado (12.55 mile track)

Here is the 4-hr rotation track map for the Jonesboro tornado (MRMS) at 20:30z-00:30z. I wonder how long the tornado was on the ground.

There could be a CC drop representative of a TDS near Kirkwood, Illinois.

So, what happened then? I'm seeing reports of 1.5" to 2.5" on the southern side of Denver.

As an interesting note, we'll have some storms develop near or at areas of 90 kt of effective shear. I don't think I've seen that. Most of the time, you can only get up to about 70 kt of shear in areas of surface instability.

Now tonight's 3km NAM run has 73/68/ 3200 J/kg near Fort Madison IA at 18z Saturday

Temperatures on the Colorado plains range from lower 40s to 80 degrees. Stratus clouds filled in northeast Colorado earlier today.

With a 986mb low over Iowa, and 60-65F dew points from Louisiana up to Springfield IL/Davenport IA, I believe the SPC will have to give a slight risk outlook for the entire cold front and adjacent areas. Especially with 75 kt winds at 500mb over this region.

Anybody know if there has been any confirmed damage at Triana to Owens Cross Roads AL?

As for now, this is a radar-confirmed tornado warning at Sewanee.

There is likely going to be some mixed rain/snow for our area on Friday/Saturday morning, with the potential for heavy snow at Estes Park.

It looks like this storm north of Huntsville is trying to develop a stronger rotation

The southern supercell near Vina, AL is ramping up with stronger rotation and a tornado warning.

Thunderstorms near Tupelo MS seem to be increasing in intensity quickly.

It seems quite likely that scattered severe storms will move across Tennessee and Kentucky, as well as adjacent areas of Mississippi and Alabama. According to most CAMs, the storms may be quite late in the day, with some stronger storms at 00z (8:00PM eastern/7:00PM central). With strong wind fields aloft, these storms will have fast movement, and I would expect a wind/tornado threat

It looks like my area got 3.9" of snow and 1.35" of total precipitation (nearest CoCoRAHS observers.)

Today has been kind of low on the storm report total, given the two different enhanced-risk areas. This is a radar-confirmed tornado north of Little Rock.

This tornado-warned storm has tracked northeastward from Fort Smith metro area. (near Mulberry, AR)

My place has about 2" on grass, and just some slush on the streets.

A storm near Essex, IA is already starting to show signs of being a discrete supercell with 1-2" hail.

latest radar, with p-type. we have snow here, maybe 1/2" on rooftops.

I don't know if this is going to accumulate. At Fort Collins, there has been 0.77" of liquid equivalent since yesterday. There is only a trace of snow right now. I guess I can deal with that. I did plenty of shoveling in February. I'm not sure I want to do more shoveling today or tomorrow.

Why not use math? The 10% tornado area is 113,928 sq mi, the 5% tornado area is 140,381 sq mi, and the 2% tornado area is 168,806 sq mi. The SPC system forecasts a probability that any one point in a certain zone will see a report within 25 miles. That means that each point in space is something of a 25 mi radius storm-report-detector. A 25-mi radius circle takes up (pi)*(25)^2 square miles of area. Aside from using more advanced methods of statistics, let's just apply simple math. The number of 25 mile circles covered by the 10% outlook is 58.02, and likewise, 71.50 circles, and 85.97 circles. Then (58.02)*(0.10)+(71.50)*(0.05)+(85.97)*(0.02) = 11.1 tornadoes. 11 seems like a possible number of tornadoes. Qualitatively, I think it's reasonable to say the 10% risk for a large section of the Ohio Valley/Mississippi may seem too much. Otherwise, using real statistical methods may calculate a different number of expected tornadoes.

Tiny tornado vortex signature (near Albany TX)

we've had two tornado reports here. The current tornado warning is not directly over the velocity couplet (unless the radar is delayed somehow)