roardog

Those crazy abnormal heights in Canada are probably going to kind of act like a block which might keep it from getting too warm or cold. Days and days of low clouds and fog with easterly flow at the surface?

A lot of people on this board would hate that type of winter. I would probably get tired of the extreme cold with hardly any precip though too. From what I've read, it actually started to get milder in February then there was an early Spring which turned into a very mild Spring. So there was definitely some balancing that went on after the cold fall and winter.

It won’t take long in January to get air cold enough to snow if the flow is from northern Canada regardless of how much pacific air Canada gets filled with.

I think I speak for most here when I say I would love to read your winter forecast if you are willing to post it.

We all know what JB is but his call this time around wasn't bad. I have Weatherbell so I read all of them guys that post on there. JB has been saying since early Fall that his hurricane analog showed cold in the east between Thanksgiving and Christmas but it isn't useful beyond that time frame. So it's actually going to end up being a decent call that he made before the models were ever showing any sign of cold in the east in December.

You’re not wrong but since we just saw this happen recently and it could be at least partially responsible for our current pattern maybe it will cause more competing influences and we’ll go back to the pattern we have now. Maybe we should think about that instead of looking at it from the negative point of view and saying west based Nina pattern when we really don’t know.

You guys that complain about the cold and dry pattern should want the -PNA/SE ridge pattern. That’s what will open the Gulf of Mexico to Chicago. It could also bring 50 degrees and rain too but that’s the chance you have to take if you only want big storms.

It seems like the models have been trying to lower the heights in Alaska and western Canada after day 10 for awhile now but as we get closer in time more ridging keeps showing up. The forecasted cold in the east next week that wasn’t showing up even a couple of days ago is a good example of this.

I know we talk about RONI and how warm the oceans are and everything but it wasn’t that long ago that 3.4 was actually at a warm neutral level and the SOI was barely positive. We seem to finally be getting some strengthening of the cold waters in that region along with the recent big jump in the SOI. I kind of wonder if the atmosphere is still responding to the warm enso waters we just had. It wouldn’t surprise me if we start to see a more Nina like pattern as we head into January in response to what’s happening right now.

None of this means anything if the pattern is going to look like a Nino. Mild weather is coming but it’s not really because of a Nina look. It’s more strong Nino looking than anything.

The earlier discussion was about sea surface anomalies. Coral reef, OISST, CDAS are all at the lowest they have been in a long time.

There’s actually been a lot of cooling globally for whatever reason. The global anomalies are the lowest they’ve been in a long time.

I don't know. I mean if the atmosphere is classic Nina, wouldn't the global pattern reflect that? It looks nothing like Nina now and if the ensembles are correct with the Aleutian low in the medium range, that's about as opposite of Nina as you can get.

It's because he isn't using the real definition of major stratwarm. He's said before in posts on Weatherbell that he's calling it that even if it doesn't technically fit the definition. It's like when he calls any El Nino with warmer anomalies in 4 than in 1.2 a Modoki El Nino even though that is not actually the true definition of it.

The models are really fighting any kind of persistent western trough. They keep trying to go back to a more Nino type look with some semblance of an Aleutian low and ridging across western North America.

You don’t like it if it’s cold and you don’t like it if it’s warm. You only want a record breaking storm which is unrealistic. lol

The reality is that most of the people posting in this thread probably know what type of pattern the models are showing in the medium or long range before the natural gas market does. I don’t really think it’s telling us anything we don’t already know.

Yeah if you live in Dallas or Seattle. The more south and west you are in the sub, the more risk you're going to have of having some very mild days mixed in with cold ones. Maybe Chicago will be too far SW to get any of the clipper snows but on the other hand you need to be close to the mild air to get the good clipper snows so it's hard to say right now. If you're only goal is to get a major Gulf of Mexico moisture laden monster storm, the yes, this is an awful pattern. If you just want to experience some winter cold and clippers in December for a change and get the ground/lakes frozen then it doesn't look bad at all.

We are finally getting a sustained rise in the SOI. I wouldn’t be surprised if we start to see a little SE ridge start to show up in a week or so. I noticed the 6Z GEFS starting to hint at a SE ridge after day 10 with the coldest air moving to the upper Midwest/northern plains.

I guess if we are talking about the NE part of the country then I agree there won’t be any “extreme” cold for now since the coldest of the air is routed to the south and west of there. International Falls, Lacrosse, etc are some cities that could have “ extreme” cold for late November/early December. It will take a little bit of time to fill eastern Canada with Arctic air after this mild pacific flow we’ve had this fall across North America.

I’ve noticed that 2M temps anomalies are usually too warm on the models already by day 10 or so. Just look at the euro weeklies. By the time you get to week three they usually show no below normal 2M temps anywhere in the world. lol. I think we should see what verifies first. Detroit will have no shot to reach 2002 level cold due to the Great Lakes but I think Chicago or Indianapolis has a shot to get some real mid winter type cold.

I'd rather have a cold and dry pattern that at least gets arctic air established in the area so that when moisture does come back you have a good chance of something wintry as opposed to the garbage in recent winters where every system is thread the needle slush balls falling from the clouds that take an hour just to start to accumulate.

That medium range look on the ensembles are a cold but dry look that's ripe for clippers. That's a pattern we haven't seen in like 70 years. Ok, maybe that's an exaggeration but it's been a long time since we've seen a pattern like the one shown.

Maybe the American models have just improved over the years.

This is off topic of Enso but I’m not convinced that the SST anomalies that drive oscillations like the PDO aren’t more of a result of the pattern as opposed to a driver of it. While everyone is watching for those anomalies to start to change, maybe it’s the pattern that needs to change first to get those anomaly changes rolling.