roardog

Yes there was a strong SE ridge for a while in February but what about December and January? When the mid Atlantic was getting warning criteria snow, I’m sure the snow lovers in NYC and Boston were hoping for a SE ridge. The SE ridge this winter only occurred for a small fraction of the winter. It was a +PNA winter overall. I mean, the pattern this winter was completely different than what we’ve had overall the last decade. Sometimes snowfall just comes down to luck.

I know you like to talk about how the SE ridge is killing winter in NYC and the northeast in general and it was in recent years because we had troughs digging into Mexico every winter but I don't think there was even a SE ridge in the means this past winter. The Lake effect areas got slammed this winter because the arctic air came in fast in late November/early December after a very warm fall and warm previous two winters which really helped to keep the lakes unusually warm with the warmer waters even getting a little deeper which caused ice formation to be delayed despite below average air temperatures. None of that had anything to do with a SE ridge. As a matter of fact, not having a SE ridge is what helped cause the prolific lake effect season as there was fairly continuous NW flow bringing Canadian and or arctic air over the region.

It’s kind of like the people that have been saying -PDO and associated -PNA pattern is the new normal due to the warmer Oceans. So what happens this past winter? We have a +PNA winter and the PDO has gone much less negative. Could this be the start of a flip to more +PDO and more +PNA patterns? It wouldn’t surprise me in the least.

The PDO looks strongly positive there. I’m not so sure that’s going to happen.

It’s funny how much warmer it has been there than over here. Maybe because the airmass had to travel over one extra lake(Lake Huron) to get to you? While we never had any clear and calm nights to really crash the temperatures, we did have some nights below zero with wind which doesn’t really happen too often here.

I could see a situation where the PDO continues to rise overall and we end up with a warm neutral winter followed by a Nino the following winter similar to the 2013-2016 timeframe, just not to that extreme. I wouldn't expect a super Nino in 26-27.

Don’t worry. It’ll be warm in Florida. lol

Let’s watch the storm for the middle of next week and see if it trends SE and weaker. There’s always complaints about how a storm that is modeled to produce rain never trends SE. Right now as modeled it would probably get to 60F or higher here with a decent rain. It will probably trend SE and weaker and give me 36F and rain. lol

At least it’s going to be March later this week so you know daily snow melting season is just about here. That’s better than when you lose a good snowpack in like mid January.

That’s crazy. We are still running almost 4 degrees below average for February here after -2.3 degrees in January and only .6 degrees above average for December.

Once you get to March, snow retention becomes almost impossible for any extended period of time for most of this sub forum. So an active pattern with wild temperature swings and contrasts is what March is really about and what to hope for IMO.

Yeah. How many days with snow on the ground doesn't mean anything. We had a lot of days with snow on the ground in a winter like 07-08 but it was because it was a stormy and mild winter. The snow kept melting but more would fall when it cooled down again. I could see that situation playing out a lot in Ohio. I mean, it's never been "normal" for southern Michigan to keep snow on the ground for an entire winter, there's no way it's "normal" for Ohio.

Considering we just had a super Nino last winter, I can’t believe we would have another strong Nino this soon.

That would be nice here because it would be a wet pattern too. We went into winter very dry and could use a wet spring.

This was a much, much colder winter nationally than we’ve seen in awhile. Almost the entire country was below normal for January. Maybe now we can get less of the obnoxious posts about how there will never be a cold winter month again.

I think it was 2017 when there was a day in mid May that had some heavy snow showers around that even managed to whiten the ground for a few minutes.

Early March is generally pretty useless for real warmth even down in your neck of the woods so you’re probably not missing too much. You would think it should at least come with quite a bit of sun.

Maybe we’ll have neutral for a change.

That depends on what you consider consistent spring warmth. That’s kind of relative to where you’re located. Once we start to get consistent highs 40 and above, that’s Spring to me. Any consistent “warm” weather of like 70 and above is Summer to me. lol. Obviously, someone in central Indiana would strongly disagree with that. Anyway, the first week of March looks like we could have well below normal temperatures for this entire sub forum. Of course in March, that could still mean above freezing highs in the central and southern areas of our sub forum.

Medium range is brutal looking if you’re looking for Spring warmth just about anywhere after about day 10. The MJO should be in the colder phases too so it makes sense. I guess enjoy the warmer weather next week although that just looks more closer to normal than anything torchy.

I feel like that would be like having it rain all day and the ground never getting wet and the crops never getting water. lol

I’ve noticed over the years that the low moisture lake effect snow has a problem sticking during the day as you get into late winter and the sun angle gets higher. I remember probably about 25 years ago there was some very heavy lake effect snow squalls in early March. We had bare ground before that and every time it snowed hard, the ground would get covered but as soon as there was a lull, it melted. So we never gained anything. Also, a lot of times the cloud cover is actually quite thin during lake effect snow which doesn’t help either.

If I moved to Florida, I would probably still briefly look at the situation if Michigan had a possibility of something interesting but other than that, I wouldn't care and would go about my day. lol

Don't worry. We're almost to the warm fronts getting stuck at the Michigan border season. Spring is my least favorite season BTW.

At least the WAA snow did end up developing so the early morning HRRR was on crack. Estimating probably 2-2.5 inches of new snow now and still coming down at a decent clip. It looks like it might start winding down soon though.