roardog

How many times have we seen a MCS two hundred miles to the north send a lake enhanced outflow down the lake causing a NE wind and big drop in temps? It happens over here with Lake Huron too. You guys should be in the clear from that by Sunday though.

Yeah. If dewpoints really are in the mid 70s, I wouldn’t be surprised if we see a lot of low 90s for highs. Nights on the other hand are going to be awful.

Yeah. It seems people that don’t follow the weather always have this misconception that drastic daily changes in weather and or extreme heat or cold never used to happen. It doesn’t help when any media story about the weather basically reinforces that idea.

Without looking back at the specifics from that time I feel like the 12Z euro almost has a July ‘95 look to it.

Next weekend looks like it could be interesting as the heat starts to move northeast. It could be one of those situations where most of the sub is hot and capped but our area could be far enough northeast for something.

This year looks different though in the sense that the western US is going to be very cool with maybe some significant snow in the mountains.

You keep saying this but outside of the lake effect snow belts, this area had a dry winter which is very uncharacteristic of a Nina winter. The Nina winters that are dry here are usually the ones that have the giant vortex over Alaska that keeps the entire country mild. This past winter obviously didn’t have anything close to that.

Yeah. We saw the -PDO hold in what was I believe technically a super Nino. So it’s not like it’s never happened before during a very -PDO regime.

At least we're now in the short 3 months or so where even normal temperatures are pleasant.

82-83 and 97-98 are what I think of when I think of a very strong El Niño winter in the Midwest. I actually had quite a bit of wet 32F snow in 15-16, it just always started melting shortly after it fell. 15-16 was missing the “dry” part of a strong Nino around here.

I wouldn’t think 98-99 would be your kind of winter. Some great snow depth in January for awhile but it certainly wasn’t a cold, snow covered winter overall. I would actually put this past winter above 98-99 for overall wintery feel.

That doesn't seem likely since the fires haven't been burning that long and I would think any smoke thick enough to slow daytime heating would also reduce radiational cooling. I think it's just been a long time since we've seen a pattern that can deliver this cold and dry of an airmass in June. We've grown accustomed to what seems like consistent warmth and high dewpoints during the three summer months in recent years or even decades. However, history says this chilly type of airmass does happen sometimes in early June.

Yeah but I guess I wasn't thinking government conspiracy.

lol. what?

What is up with these Canadian wildfires every May? I understand a couple of years ago when Canada had that record or near record warm May. That would obviously cause the snow to melt and everything to dry up but not greened up yet. This year, the majority of Canada has had below normal temperatures this month. It seems all it takes anymore is a few “warm” days and you have spontaneous combustion of the forests. Are warmer and shorter winters causing more vegetation that then goes dormant for the winter allowing more fuel for the fires?

Hope you’re feeling better.

Yeah. I like the low heights and cool showing up starting next week across Canada while some “heat” starts showing up for much of this sub. That should make for some fun somewhere.

It seems unusual for bowtie to go 2 months without cloud pics.

You would hate it here today. Right now it’s sunny and 49F. Frost possible with mid 30s tonight and yes the furnace is definitely on. lol

There will be for sure. This kind of goes back to what I was talking about also. Yes, this week into the weekend will definitely have below average temperatures but the type of weather coming up is far from unusual for late May/Memorial Day Weekend. There's been many times when Memorial Day Weekend is chilly. I even feel like there might be more that are what you would call chilly than warm. However, most people that don't pay attention to the weather are not going to remember that. They'll remember the ones that had highs in the 80s each day and forget about all of the ones that had highs in the 50s or 60s. Then they'll say how they can't believe how cold it is and they never remember it ever being this cold for the holiday.

I like this post. This is why there's so much disagreement among the general population(and even some posters here)about climate change. How many people that don't understand anything about weather or climate would guess that there were 4 winters in Detroit between 1874 and 1882 that were warmer than today's average with some significantly so? Not many I bet. People just can't grasp that we're talking about an average global temp and in many cases, it's tenths of a degree we're talking about. It's still cold in the arctic and warm along the equator. It still snows at the North Pole in the summer and can even snow around here in May. That doesn't mean the earth isn't warming and it doesn't mean the earth is cooling. It's just "normal" weather variation. You will still have cold records, it's just that warm records are likely to outpace the cold records. If you aren't someone that pays attention to the weather(like most people)then you don't know this stuff because the media is just as clueless about any of this as the average person.

This time of year is when you can get weird stuff like Minneapolis being warmer than Paducah. The high sun angle this time of year can build warmth in the north with the right pattern. It doesn’t have to advect in like during the cold season. Then you get one of those classic May cut off lows that trap “cool” air with lots of clouds and rain to the south and you can get a couple weeks of warm north, cool south type weather. So while it isn’t common it’s also not really unheard of this time of year either.

I feel like there’s a chance that dewydews might grow palms somewhere near Milwaukee. lol

Your buddy JB and Weatherbell in general are forecasting a wet summer on the east coast with near normal temperatures. So it looks like you agree with him. lol. They have big heat in the central part of the country.

The warmth is good for getting t-storms but that’s about it. This 80 degree stuff is too warm for me. lol.