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roardog

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Everything posted by roardog

  1. roardog
    Part of the issue is that the water temps have come way down over the last month. As of a couple of days ago Lake Michigan water temps were just a smidge above average and dropping fast. Lake Huron was average but dropping fast and Erie and Ontario were both below average now. I know you only care about Lake Michigan but the way the water temps are dropping, it’s going to take a significantly cold airmass for heavy lake effect snow. Also there was 1.2% ice cover already too.
  2. roardog
    Lake Superior is only one of the Great Lakes though. Both Lake Erie and Lake Ontario are below average right now for this date. Lake Huron is right about average but dropping fast and Lake Michigan is a little above average. This is much different than what it was like in October when all of the Great Lakes were very warm.
  3. roardog
    I don’t think the lakes are that warm anymore. They were in October when the article in that link was written but the cold blasts in November that caused the heavy lake effect snow and the recent cold is putting a damper on that.
  4. roardog
    I don’t think the lake temps are even above normal anymore.
  5. roardog
    Chicago snow futility is already off the table for this season and it's only Dec. 4th. It just won't be the same here this winter without that thread. lol
  6. roardog
    I would think air that cold will drain south and east and cause wintry chances even if you aren't under the blue negative height anomalies.
  7. roardog
    I think it has to do with the lack of sustained western US riding the last 10 years or so. You need the +PNA to dive those systems southeast along the temperature gradient. They're still there, they’re just tracking north or northeast of most of this sub because the flow is too fast and pushing the ridging too far east into the western midwest.
  8. roardog
    Yeah. To really have a great winter around here, you need a wintry December. Without all three months it’s hard to label the winter as great imo. When winter doesn’t start until January, it feels like it’s over prematurely by March because it feels short at that point regardless of how good it is.
  9. roardog
    That’s quite a change. lol
  10. roardog
    Since AI is supposed to learn, it probably just looked at the last 10 years of every winter storm tracking south and weaker of the projected track a few days out. lol
  11. roardog
    Is a +WPO common during a Nina Autumn? Without looking into it, I feel like we usually see low heights out there during a Nina Autumn which helps with the common mild October we so often experience in a Nina.
  12. roardog
    It was interesting to track 10 years ago, now it’s just boring.
  13. roardog
    Doesn’t it pretty much always strengthen in November as we head into Winter?
  14. roardog
    It just seems crazy to me that a volcano can throw as much water vapor into the atmosphere as this one did and it’s pretty much shrugged off as nothing to see here.
  15. roardog
    Over here, we're only down .64 for the year and actually slightly above normal at this point in the month with 1.59 inches this month. You guys have definitely been much drier over there.
  16. roardog
    If I'm remembering correctly, isn't this what you want to see in October according to the research Bluewave has done?
  17. roardog
    That’s crazy. The sensible weather even felt the same.
  18. roardog
    I can’t remember for sure but I always thought it was based on how much the snowcover advances from the beginning of October until the end. In that case, you wouldn’t want above normal snowcover in early October I would assume.
  19. roardog
    If we’re going to have nice “warm” days it might as well be October(especially early October). A cold and wet October isn’t exciting to me anyway unless you’re just looking for the first flakes of snow. November on the other hand is when we need a more active pattern for severe and or winter weather.
  20. roardog
    I think these warm blobs are nothing more than a result of the pattern and not an influencer of the pattern. I think it could help feedback but no way can it overpower other influencing factors IMO.
  21. roardog
    Yeah. Volume doesn't really tell you much about what's happening now. The low volume is the result of decades of warming. We could have an asteroid impact the planet today and cool it 3 degrees and the volume would still be low next year.
  22. roardog
    I never really compared those winters so I don't know without looking into it.
  23. roardog
    In the end, the 500mb height anomalies in 72-73 were very similar to 23-24 when you adjust for the current climate.
  24. roardog
    Yeah. The dewpoints usually aren’t real high and the longer nights allow it to start cooling down fairly early even if it does get really warm during the afternoon.
  25. roardog
    Mid 30s here this morning. I looked for frost on the rooftops this morning but didn't see any.
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