Maestrobjwa

Same. I'm getting out of the business of paying closer attention before then...details jump around way too much at this lead time (especially with storms that are dependent on in how this wave interacts with that one and that other one...lol). Not gonna drive myself crazy with that! The rule of thumb for weekend threats? If it's still there Tuesday evening or Wednesday morning, then watch

Nice to see the GEFS losing full lat ridge of doom look as well. Nice ensemble trends today so far

Let me ask this...why do we give the CMC any credence? It's always biased cold, lol

You've reached a healthy point with this...I kinda envy you, lol I'd love to get to the point where it not snowing in winter no longer bothers me in the slightest! (Although recently I am finding not dwelling on it too much to be helpful...the more you expose your mind to it the worse it gets! I'm trying, but days like to today show me I've still got a ways to go)

Doesn't change reality. What you want to happen, wish could happen, just hasn't. I'd like to have what I used to prior to 2017. But we seem to have fallen off even further from that.

I don't know about anybody else, but for me it's not even about just expecting something: It's what you want to happen. Low expectations don't cure disappointment--because you're looking for something better than you've had. Just one snowfall of 6 inches, something with a little bit more of something. When what you desire doesn't happen, there's disappointment regardless of whether you had low expectations or not.

So much for "just move north", lol You'd have to move north, west, and maybe a little further west!

Yeah something like this...it feels like it's either gonna be too amped that it overwhelms or too weak and it gets squashed. That's a battle that, given the state of things...we're unlikely to win, imo Don't see much point in tracking it myself, but as CAPE said, it's all that's there for right now, lol

Whatever is afflicting us is gonna afflict them too...that's the crazy part. Like the snow climo of the entire northeast may have taken a hit all at once, smh (Well, at least we're not alone, lol)

Yeah but once you threw that fail scenario out there yesterday and what would happen...the thread latched onto it (I mean I know I did...I was somewhat anxiously waiting for the eps last night to make sure it wouldn't bleed that way). It was kinda like "What if it's not wrong?"

Was thinking about posting that--glad I was looking at it right. Not gonna lie the correction is a relief...hopefully it continues.

Welp, if that was the tipping point, at least it went out with one big blizzard, lol

Given the GEFS runs today, the subjects overlapped. That's gonna happen sometimes. Ensemble runs are long range: but the 12z and 18z gefs showed (or burped) something comparable to the previous years, raising the questions.

Please don't tell me how to use my app...Now, I may not need it if things go to crap...I'll just lose interest on tracking like I did last February and won't have a desire to be on here or TT, lol

So basically, the pattern progression the next few weeks is gonna have huge implications for the future. Will be watching ensembles closely (and a bit nervously given what it could mean). Man I hope the GEFS is wrong!

But wait...how does that compare to this? It was an epic outlier--but it didn't exactly set off a 7-year heater (though 2009-2016 did have some great years obviously). This is different: 2016 happened, the boom: a precipitous drop. Not gradual...but sharp!

If things don't work out and this is it (we don't know that yet of course), I wanna know why it happened so quickly. Like something just flips on a dime in 2016...that doesn't make sense to me. Somebody needs to study that year...To see such a precipitous drop, it had to be a catalyst somewhere, right?

Yeah even from a layman perspective, I'm not sure why some are comparing the two as if they're similar. Wouldn't any comparison to ash/sulfur eruptions of the past be irrelevant because we're dealing with water vapor instead?

Simply (or maybe not so simply)...I think those that have such responses, and snow lovers in general, don't want to admit it's a possibility (not 100% certain but possible) that the snow climo could be permanently altered. I don't think any of us WANT that to be true...so is the resistance/cognitive dissonance really such a surprise? And of course there are those that don't want to be wrong anyway, lol I think we need to be real about where things may be, yet understanding of how we're feeling about the POSSIBILITY of a new reality. No matter what, anybody that loves snow may have to adjust if it's true because it would potentially suck for everybody...so let's just be patient with each other as we grapple with that possibility.

So like...are we in a climate where Ninas couple really well but niños have trouble? Is that where we are now? Smh (The 2018-19 barely coupled at all)

I can't believe how folks are still ungrateful for that storm...I mean, look how the winters since that one have looked! Be grateful for crying out loud!

The fact that El Niños are mostly backloaded is reason for more optimism...or at least middling expectations, lol This is not the first above average niño to look like this on December 27th. So looking forward to mid/late January isn't unreasonable given the history.

Not a SE ridge. Look at the 500 mb panels. A SE ridge is usually that orange blob that comes out of the southeast...but that isn't there now.

Might I suggest the Site blocker app? It will prevent you from coming on here, TT, Weatherbell, or any other weather site for however long you want. I've started using it to limit my time on here...Less exposure will be better for ya--trust me, lol

You also can't be picky either. If 2009-10 or 95-96 was your minimum, you won't be happy even if we get an epic storm that gives us more than we've gotten in a storm since 2016. I'd suggest considering the last 7 years and adjust your gratitude for what we get accordingly.