Maestrobjwa

Love how the Ravens are keeping up the intensity even in a game where we're resting some players! It may not seem like a big thing, but it speaks volumes about the mentality and focus. Love it!

Keep seeing some say the south may see a snow event before we do. And looking at those maps wouldn't that be more suppressive? (For that week, at least) Man if NC gets a snow event before we do...*screams into pillow* Still have snow ptsd from Dec 2018 (though that was a little bad luck, lol) If it happens it would kinda make sense...as someone posted earlier...we do better on the relax.

You a warmista, Chuck?

You have folks here who were ungrateful for the Jan 2016 blizzard just because it was a one and done winter. I don't get that...but to each their own! That being said, given how bad things have been, I am growing to appreciate said nickel and dime events when they come (and going forward, in la ninas I think we need to appreciate them more given how bad things can get in a nina). But ask me my preference? BIG DOG...like, that's not even a question!

So let me get this straight...despite alllll the snow drought we've had the past 7-8 years, you're still gonna be picky if we get a big storm? Maaan get outta here with that, lol

Yep...that would be an absolute troll job! But it is 7 days away...if it looks like this now only way it can look worse is all rain! Maybe it gets better who knows, lol But the period I'm more interested in is after that as our historically prime climo window opens...no matter what, that window (mid Jan-President's day) will be put up or shut up time, lol

Nah not playing that game two weeks in a row, lol (Actually I didn't play the game this week either!) Now if it's modeled more under us on Wednesday then we can talk!

Gonna pull a you and say: I'm not saying it won't snow again. It just...may be more difficult. All the discussion boils down to that, really.

Pws?

So it's warming. We don't have to dance around it...Now of course, we don't actually know how this winter pans out...so there's no conclusion to be had yet! But IF it doesn't work out we'll know. Like, can't we all just get to a space where we acknowledge the possibility of the effect on our climo? Yeah it might be climate...there. Out in the open, no elephants...if this is where we are we're gonna have to find a way to deal with it. No amount of denial is gonna change it. All that being said...at least for now we still have our best shot in this niño, and it may be better not to torture ourselves in the short term until we see how this season goes

Now hang on a second man...real talk: From your comments like this one, or your weenieing anybodt who mentions anything about it, I'm guessing you don't believe anything about any changes in climo? I'm curious if there's a particular reason why you don't. (And btw, I'm not trying to pick a fight, but I am genuinely curious about your position)

This look fits the airmass prior to our last blizzard almost exactly. I remember that whole week it was quite cold barely making it out of the mid 30s. That's closer to "the look", no?

Yep, and the antecedent airmass was exactly what PSU described using the fantasy range of the 12z gfs. I remember it being sufficientlyrics cold that week, barely making it out of the mid 30s!

But the GEM is always cold though, isn't it? Lol

Tomer indicated that in the Twitter thread @WxUSAF shared as well. Hopefully it indeed meant just meant "first" lol

This is why I hope he wasn't being completely serious/trolling vs him actually seeing something that would indicate such an outcome.

While that scenario would hurt...at least it wouldn't go in the book as being because we're warming, lol It would just be really, REALLY crappy luck. But hopefully that won't happen (or we get another shot with the next one) BTW is HM using a different handle or was this posted somewhere else?

If you're a snowlover, wouldn't a warm Phase 4 MJO mess all of that up? Would hate to have all that blocking but too warm, smh

Good thing the long range doesn't actually look too crappy

Good to see ya post here again! On a comical note I case you missed it...someone mentioned you but accidentally spelled your username as "usedrobe" Lolol

Didn't the blocking in most of our best Niños come later (like after mid-Jan?) Edit: Like @CAPE's post, lol

BWI. (Perhaps this is less banter and more LR discussion, but I was about to share this list JB2 made several years ago) See what I mean? Lol The only outlier was January 1996...which I can imagine was a combination of ninas being front-loaded, and having that crazy anomalous blocking regime you and others have talked about.

Combination of the latest model runs suggest more rain for I-95 and more frozen n & w, do they not? Now you gave me a weenie emoji the other day when I said that even when model runs looked better...but here we are, lol It just smelled like that on Monday to me. This isn't a setup that has the snowiest of the three options, I don't think. Besides...it's maybe a week or two too early (I looked up past snowstorms and only one fell the first week of January. I'm not sure why that happens but that seems to be a historical trend!)

Yes I kinda knew it was a joke--but it certainly didn't feel like a harmless one but one meant to embarass/shame for the way I thought about something even after I explained the reason why (the proverbial being laughed at as opposed to laughed with) I was being genuine about my thought process I didn't take it too well when somebody makes light of it. If you didn't intend that...I apologize. Overreacted