Maestrobjwa
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Everything posted by Maestrobjwa
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I know for me, I'm not looking for distinct threats at hr 240...just whether the pattern is changing. And on that side of things...we've had a lot of positive moved on the ensembles the last several days, haven't we? Don't put the cart before the horse...getting the pattern to not look completely crappy going into January is step one, lol
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Better than the opposite...lol Having the opposite issue blows games...I'll take this all the day!
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That was an absolutely CRAZY throw and catch...that defender was just sitting on the ground like "Whhhhhyyyyyyy???" Lol
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Yeeeeeaaaaah buddy!!! (If I wasn't on a partial fast from this forum I would've posted that first, lol) This is a global holiday as far as I am concerned
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I think I'd be too ashamed to show up to a forum gathering...lol
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Yeah I remember that year the Winter Olympics were in Canada and they were having a snow shortage, lol (remember laughing at that irony while we were buried deep here!) So yeah it was definitely warm! Wait so what was the mechanism that made the cold for those storms?
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I actually wasn't sure it had something to do with that or not. I keep seeing folks say the artic air is "kicked" or "trapped" on the other side of the globe...Now from a layman perspective, I thought that implied there was another mechanism that did that. So you're saying all the pac air kicks the colder air to the other side of the hemisphere, or? And from that same perspective...I also don't get how "that" problem means warm or our side of the hemisphere but still cold there. May be a dumb question, but remember...non-scientifically oriented poster here. Sometimes we need a "for dummies" explanation of these things!
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Anybody care to weigh in on why we've been seeing this more often lately?
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To bad you got married on top of a winter unicorn...hard to recreate that one
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Sure hope they're right. I would hate for something like a +NAO all winter to mess this up...because not only would it suck for this year, we still wouldn't know whether a Niño still works since we could point to that as a culprit. Like you said earlier...hopefully we won't have to do that analysis, lol
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I'm almost sure getting moisture won't be an issue this year, lol This is why I feel like this winter is either gonna be above average or a complete ratter. If something cold-ruining were to lock in (let's hope not), then it'll be hard to get anything it seems...But all it takes is for the cold to be there even a few times to result in the many AN snowfall predictions to come true.
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To me this isn't worth tracking at all...thread the needle hasn't worked for years. But, to each their own!
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Meanwhile, that dang +NAO going absolutely nowhere on the ens...
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So for now, no matter what else gets better...I'm taking a "better NAO or it didn't happen" approach, lol (since that seems to be the main villain at the moment)
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For now it's the pied NAO...
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May as well just call 'em dailies and be done with it, lol
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What mechanism is causing that? (Does it have to do with things just being more difficult overall?)
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So...if the NAO were to end up sinking the ship this winter, would you attribute that to worsening climo, just bad luck, or worsening climo making said bad luck harder to overcome?
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Yeah man this is like watching a high stakes game where you are hiding your face because ya can't watch, yet keep looking with one eye, hoping for the best yet having the worst keep flashing before you too, lol The suspense is magnified given our recent stretch (if we'd done better the last 7 years it wouldn't feel as tense!)
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No worries--all good And btw if anyone doubts that you weenie out to snow just like most of us, all they need to do is look at the pics you shared yesterday That was a montage I'd like to call "the snowlover's heart" because that was a perfect encapsulation of our love of this frozen water we love/obsess over so much
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You're right. And to be clear, please do not take this as me saying "Oh please don't deliver bad news!" or that purely scientific analysis should be held back to preserve feelings, or that personal preference should interfere with good analysis. That's not what I meant. You've been expressing that you didn't understand why you were getting pushback, right? When I said "consider the psychological side", I was responding to your slight surprise/bewilderment about the reaction people have, I gave my theory on why that is...I'm not at all suggesting you quit making good analysis just because it's bad news. I was just explaining what I saw as the reason why people were reacting to it, sometimes in a not-so-scientific way. Doesn't make the reactions scientifically sound...lol I'm a very big "why" person when it comes to people's reactions, because often times the problem lies within, than with whoever is posting good analysis like you do.
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Have you ever considered the psychological side of this? Good news leads to good feelings, bad news leads to bad. So of course someone is gonna try to dig for a positive in hopes it means the news is not so bad (even if said digging leads to more of reach) So it's not exactly against you...just against the news itself, lol I wouldn't take that personally...people just have their reactions to even the most objective bad news.
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Man did you just forget 2015/16? Smh 1986-87 BWI had a TRACE in December. 78-79 niño had zilch. So tell me again why the winter predictions are in trouble?
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I don't know whether it's controversial, but rather, uncomfortable. A "controversial" reaction seems more like emotion to me! We all have uncomfortable things we either don't want to/aren't ready to accept. And there's mental resistance/negative reaction when seeing said realities. All the reaction is stemming from that place of not wanting it to be true, and the emotions tend to outweigh the logical side of things in conversation because of it. Psychologically, we don't tend to enjoy seeing a reality that points to getting less of something you get joy out of. So yeah, logically, it's getting warmer. But I challenge ya to find any snow lover that doesn't feel a certain way about that, lol Some handle it better than others!
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I mean...yeah I kinda wish they would, but at the same time ya don't wanna have too many strict rules either. Yes it can be annoying (unless it's being used as an example to demonstrate how a particular setup could work), but all we can do is try to ignore it!
