Maestrobjwa

Gonna pull a you and say: I'm not saying it won't snow again. It just...may be more difficult. All the discussion boils down to that, really.

Pws?

So it's warming. We don't have to dance around it...Now of course, we don't actually know how this winter pans out...so there's no conclusion to be had yet! But IF it doesn't work out we'll know. Like, can't we all just get to a space where we acknowledge the possibility of the effect on our climo? Yeah it might be climate...there. Out in the open, no elephants...if this is where we are we're gonna have to find a way to deal with it. No amount of denial is gonna change it. All that being said...at least for now we still have our best shot in this niño, and it may be better not to torture ourselves in the short term until we see how this season goes

Now hang on a second man...real talk: From your comments like this one, or your weenieing anybodt who mentions anything about it, I'm guessing you don't believe anything about any changes in climo? I'm curious if there's a particular reason why you don't. (And btw, I'm not trying to pick a fight, but I am genuinely curious about your position)

This look fits the airmass prior to our last blizzard almost exactly. I remember that whole week it was quite cold barely making it out of the mid 30s. That's closer to "the look", no?

Yep, and the antecedent airmass was exactly what PSU described using the fantasy range of the 12z gfs. I remember it being sufficientlyrics cold that week, barely making it out of the mid 30s!

But the GEM is always cold though, isn't it? Lol

Tomer indicated that in the Twitter thread @WxUSAF shared as well. Hopefully it indeed meant just meant "first" lol

This is why I hope he wasn't being completely serious/trolling vs him actually seeing something that would indicate such an outcome.

While that scenario would hurt...at least it wouldn't go in the book as being because we're warming, lol It would just be really, REALLY crappy luck. But hopefully that won't happen (or we get another shot with the next one) BTW is HM using a different handle or was this posted somewhere else?

If you're a snowlover, wouldn't a warm Phase 4 MJO mess all of that up? Would hate to have all that blocking but too warm, smh

Good thing the long range doesn't actually look too crappy

Good to see ya post here again! On a comical note I case you missed it...someone mentioned you but accidentally spelled your username as "usedrobe" Lolol

Didn't the blocking in most of our best Niños come later (like after mid-Jan?) Edit: Like @CAPE's post, lol

BWI. (Perhaps this is less banter and more LR discussion, but I was about to share this list JB2 made several years ago) See what I mean? Lol The only outlier was January 1996...which I can imagine was a combination of ninas being front-loaded, and having that crazy anomalous blocking regime you and others have talked about.

Combination of the latest model runs suggest more rain for I-95 and more frozen n & w, do they not? Now you gave me a weenie emoji the other day when I said that even when model runs looked better...but here we are, lol It just smelled like that on Monday to me. This isn't a setup that has the snowiest of the three options, I don't think. Besides...it's maybe a week or two too early (I looked up past snowstorms and only one fell the first week of January. I'm not sure why that happens but that seems to be a historical trend!)

Yes I kinda knew it was a joke--but it certainly didn't feel like a harmless one but one meant to embarass/shame for the way I thought about something even after I explained the reason why (the proverbial being laughed at as opposed to laughed with) I was being genuine about my thought process I didn't take it too well when somebody makes light of it. If you didn't intend that...I apologize. Overreacted

I'm not sure if this is sarcasm, but in case it's not...I'll give you a hint: we are all familiar with Jay, lol

Was that really necessary? Some of you have no sensitivity for psychology whatsoever. I just explained my brain (or tried to) just as a way of getting folks to understand my thinking (as I often do)...but sheesh that was a tar and feathering! I KNOW I'm not the only one who worries about stuff sometimes...

Well I mean...it's been nothing but bad news and things going wrong the last 7 years, compounded by more bad news of a potential negative change in climo. I think I've been interpreting everything in that lense...Now to be fair, the main part of your post pointed out a speculative negative...so I kinda went "UGH" because again, we've had so many negatives over the last 7 years, and often your posts during that stretch (that are factual--not criticizing that or saying you shouldn't say something) have been bad news...I guess it's a bit of a learned reaction! You haven't been able to deliver much good news before now, so I assume it's gonna be bad, lol And anytime you post even a tiny concern, it seems magnified...but that part is a me problem so pay that no mind, lol

We can never go without SOMETHING to worry about, can we? So we're getting the GEFS full lat ridge idea out of the way (admittedly I zeroed in on watching that after you mentioned it)...but now here's something else, lol Ah well...life in our climo!

Have you looked at the history of our best Niños? Just take a look at our biggest snows and tell me when most of them fell. (Hint: Only one of them fell before mid-January)

Try not to fall into the trap of expect TOO much from NWP for some details from a certain range. Said details that make a big difference can't always be seen from 6 days out...Computers are way, way ahead of 1998, but still not at a place where they can say a week out what it will do when you have various shortwave interactions. I think we get starry eyed at a Day 6 bomb and subconsciously expect that to happen. But the change we saw with this storm is normal variability at this range as the models focus in. Rule of thumb for weekend threats: Don't let yourself get invested before Wednesday. I find that's always a line of demarcation for big shifts (and even then...weather still has chaos). That's how I look at it, anyway.

It shouldn't be if folks look at the pattern beyond this weekend. Sure you can't shovel pattern, but better pattern=better chances. And remember, we are just outside the sweet spot on the calendar for most niño succeses!