Maestrobjwa

We don't know. Better to just watch and not assume the worst. (Or better yet maybe not watch too closely until mid Jan). The better thing about this year as opposed to last is that this is a Niño. So we can't just say it won't work out because of what happened last year. Niños past have taken time (usually to mid-Jan at the earliest) to flip more favorable. So we legit just don't know what it's gonna look like...so may as well just watch, lol

Indeed--!lways has been! All but maybe 4 of our biggest storms have fallen in that time frame.

And relocating well inland if what he says is indeed happening. That's the craziest part to me. I'm seeing this model run demonstrating his point...and I see rain even in Boston!! I guess if you're further up 95 like Boston you have to go west, down here north AND west? Lol

It's not a "weenie hive-mind" when you carefully make a forecast based on multiple factors that have worked before (Nino, blocking, etc). That's actually a tad insulting (even if you didn't mean it that way) If any warming effects have actually sped up and that's the reason it doesn't work out, you cannot blame anybody for not seeing that. There is no way to know if it were to happen that fast. But let's not talk about something that hasn't happened and just wait and see. To my brain, I have both the great outcome and the other outcome as legit possibilities. Fact of the matter is...we just don't know yet, and all we can do is sit back and watch!

Why do folks kinda bristled at the term base state, though? I mean...if you start seeing things you can't quite explain...wouldn't that mean some kind of pre-existing state may be to blame? Like if it worked 10 years ago but doesn't now...isn't that something to be considered?

If it's any comfort...if we are closer to "that day"...so is the entire east coast up 95. Like even up in Boston that's not snow. So whatever it is...at least it's not just down here while north is still cold enough, lol (Would the old joke of "just move north" Turn into "Just move north AND inland"?) That would be a crazy implication for it to happen to everybody at once, and seemingly flip on a dime like that!

Statement game by the Ravens tonight. A literal "Our goal is the Superbowl but put some respect on our name" kind of night! Heck yeah they felt dissed (as they should have--I mean 4 or 5 point underdogs? Seriously? Lol)--and they went and took care of business. Proud of the way they are playing--and now, they are FINISHING games, and actually getting stronger in the 2nd half as opposed to fading. Beautiful to see--this is how you potentially start peaking at just the right time. On to the potential No. 1 seed decider next week! GO RAVENS!!

Yes indeed. And yeah, I think Lamar is a little annoyed at that too...tonight he literally called it "noise", lol

Also, Merry Christmas to you all (didn't chime in earlier because I wanted to keep my focus on Christmas...but I did peek, lol). Hope everyone has had a blessed day!

Woooooowee!!! Man this Ravens D is showing Purdy some stuff tonight, lolol

I start Chapter 33 today: Thankful for another year! And another chance to get it right, lol 32 was rocky...esepcially professionally/emotionally. Yet somehow...said rockiness could serve to cultivate my growth for the future. Here's to being better at age 33! Merry Christmas everyone!

Don't know the reason for the snark here as I just asked a layman question...but getting back to the point I get it. I was legit wondering--this is my first niño tracking since being on this board (I was here in 2016 but wasn't looking at things as closley), so I really haven't known what to expect on some things like that. How much NS we get in a niño, how it looks...etc.

Thought a flurry of NS vorts was usually a Nina problem?

That would be a birthday/Christmas wish for me, lol

Alright it's clear I'm gonna have to sue for copyright infringement....avocado be mine invention

Believe it or not, I'm just about there! For some reason, this year my tolerance level for it has taken a nosedive (ironic, I know lol). Wish folks would keep some stuff in the Panic Room...and stop overreacting to details of a fantasy range model output (I mean some of the worst posters have also been on this site awhile and oughta know better!) I'm just getting to a "I can't take it anymore" level with that kind of stuff.

What would this imply? (Forgive me...this layman is lost on the SSW discussion, lol)

Doesn't have to be. It's all in how you think about it

I actually didn't either until I think @SnowenOutThere told me about it (thank you!) There are actually a few apps you can choose from. It blocks sites and apps for whatever increments of time you choose. I only just started using it last week, but it already seems to be helping (I'm not touching the other part of your response, lolol)

This is why I'm glad I downloaded site blocker to limit my time on this site, lol All I need are the insights from the good posters after the models and ensembles run on the Zs...I can't keep dealing with this other stuff and all the swings...nor do I wanna get sucked back into that myself.

Huh...red flag? Like I said...such a rapid deterioration of snow climo even up to Boston would be crazy to see...like somebody just flipped a switch as opposed it happening gradually. Seeing this helps keep the expectations sober...

That would be my farewell to this forum--I'd put the site blocker on permanently, lol Like there would literally be no point to tracking snow anymore, then coming in here to be collaboratively miserable. I mean why do that? Quite frankly if this doesn't work this time, and you aren't in it for the enjoyment of the science, and are just here for the snow like many of us, you'd best sign off and not waste anymore time and emotional energy. Not to mention though...wouldn't that also show that the entire snow climo of entire I-95 corridor even up to Boston just deteriorated so rapidly? That would be pretty crazy to see. I mean mercy the blitz of 2013-2016 wasn't THAT long ago was it? Lol

Yeah and besides, if it's a good winter, AND one where we get a big one, as long as you don't travel from Jan 10th-Feb 20th, ya won't miss it most of the time (looking at the historical records, it's amazing how many fell in that date range, but there were a couple somewhat recent exceptions in 1993, 1996 & 2009 of course)

And quite frankly...I thought climate stuff was gradual? Could it have really just turned on a dime after 2016 and suddenly get drastically worse (as opposed to incremental changes) after one particular year? I've always been a bit skeptical of that...but hey, I'm just a layman here!

Why is that, anyway? And looking at our previous snows...I'm curious about what percentage came as the pattern broke down vs. the beginning of it.