Maestrobjwa

Whoa boy.....so now we REALLY need next weekend to somehow trend favorably! Might be then or never, lol (barring a March 1993-style miracle!)

So you're saying that it's unlikely unless something changes, or you don't see things more favorably the next few runs? (trying to figure out if we need to just toss this one or not...would be a shame seeing as it may be our last shot--at least for now. And you guys don't sound too optimistic about early February right now so...hope this can trend better!)

Could someone post?

So basically it's just a bad track that screws us in what would otherwise be a decent area of opportunity?...(what's going on up top to cause that, and is there any chance it could recover?)

Yeah I was wondering why he said "the last two years" when the last half of 2019 appears to be the actual solar minimum?

Yeah and getting back-to-back-to-back 30+" seasons was kinda rare too, lol (although some, for some strange reason, like to discount 2016 because it all came at once!). So this snow "drought" really isn't anything major by historical standards!

I knew somebody was gonna come back with a cynical batting analogy, lol But think about it...after hitting the equivalent of 5 homers in 2010--but then, look how long it was in between then and 2014! Then boom, boom, boom...three above average winters in a row (with 2016 being a single homer that was a grand slam, lol). So now, here we are, 4 years later...and all it takes is one homerun (we've been here before) I make the argument that there are other periods in our history where snow lovers could be (and probably were) quite cynical, fearing "oh, it may never snow again" (like the early to mid-70s), and then boom. 1977-78, and 1978-79. Then a big one in 1983. Then a layoff...1986-87. Etc...And the most recent trend is not going more than 4 years without getting a foot. Does that 100% guarantee anything? Not necessarily...but it is the most recent trend, so I'll ride with it unless it breaks! Point is...we've been here before!

Mercy this forum is somethin' else, lol What we need is swings right now...this weekend is one swing--maybe we get a single at best. Next weekend is perhaps another swing yet to be determined. See, I think my relative calm about this winter may be a bit illogical...because I believe in the every 3-4 trend saying BWI is due for a footer this year (and all it would take is for one of the opportunities to come together a la Jan. 2000. Would love for it to be next weekend because we're nice and cold for most of next week. But I'm trying not to put all the eggs in that basket!)

Starting to wonder if day 9 sneaks up in the medium range...

Well thankfully this is just day 10 and we don't have to overanalyze it!

How is that even possible, lol

Lol...I was just asking because I've had to shift through weekend posts to look for posts about how things up top were lookin' beyond that! (Not looking past this threat, though...but I am looking for anymore potential in the pipeline!)

Err...is it time to make a separate thread for this?...

Man I despise that emoji, lol Why man? Ain't the setup after that what we're focusing on more anyway? And could you elaborate a bit on what you mean by "wants no parts of it" (imo it does make it a bit confusing when people will say things like that without saying exactly what--we folk without full EURO access rely on you guys' descriptions!)

Figured it out! (I forgot to wait for it to embed automatically before posting)

I try that and it only shows the link text and not the image

Quick website question: How do you guys embed a tweet like that so that it shows up like this?

I'd argue that peak snow climo, which I give more credence to, is mid-January through President's Day

Yep, that was the epic 2009-10 winter! And I remember the Canada warmth because of the difficulties it caused for the winter Olympics, lol And I hope that wasn't a "grand finale" of good blocking...hopefully it was just a decadal cycle that some theorize the NAO to go in!

What about the opposite? Like 2010 when they couldn't buy a flake up there while we got buried? Lol (was that a rare case where a warm Canada wasn't bad? Haha)

Hey...I'd rather transient cold shots be the worst case scenario than a pac flood, lol (and btw...we still managed a pretty good storm at the end of January 2000...so there's that! ) Hey @psuhoffman Ya got one of those maps for that month?

Lol I've been meaning to ask about what the EURO was saying! (seems the GFS has been waffling a bit...but overall, does it seem like a lighter storm than the driving rain it was advertising a couple days ago?)

Dang...So right now it's basically a model war for determining the fate of the winter? Whoa boy...gonna be a long 10-15 days, lol (but at least we'll finally know something by then...)

If we're extremely lucky? The Farmer's Almanac will be correct, lol (they said 4"-8" inches in the "Northeast" for this date range. Of course, the 4" may be closer to our max...but who knows? )

They've been making out like fat rats since last winter, smh