Maestrobjwa

I get ya...a tad overreactive on my part I getcha...but I think I'm still intrigued because of even the slightest possibility of this awful set of variables producing something (I guess we could call it a bonafide fluke storm if that were the case, lol)

@psuhoffman Now I had never suggested 2016 was a fluke...the setup was perfect. Now, as far as 2006...I was going off of what you said about the pattern being awful most of the winter, and that particular week being "the one time it got right". So I guess my definition of "fluke" in that case is just that we were lucky enough to score in the one time the pattern got right (not about HOW it snowed then) Now I didn't know it was favorable from the end of Jan 2006 on either (I hadn't inferred that from your description of it). Now about the "Hudson bay ridge" pattern you said we're in...now you said there weren't "many" HECS in our history with this pattern. Did it happen even once?

Who said we had to see a positive trend at 12z, though?....Could be the next, one...or the next. Some folks talk about "steps back" 5 days out like that's the end of it. Now, does that guarantee anything? Of course not...but I'm just saying...too early right now.

I think it's way too early to be living and dying by each snow map (quite frankly I think that's a futile exercise in a somewhat complicated setup like this that the models are just starting to pick up on!)

Uh...dude? You do realize that the GFS had been playing Dr. No until yesterday, right, and that it was the EURO that was spitting out what the GFS is now starting to show?

Now wait a minute ya can't go jumpin' ship now, man! Lol This is the Ji-storm (but I'll gladly take it over if ya don't want it )

Hm...looks like we got two swings coming up, then! (that is, if we are still seeing this a few days from now). One is a knuckle ball, and the other may just be a fastball...can we homer on one or both? (But seriously, given all the uncertainty about February, I sure hope we can take advantage of at least one of these!)

And now ladies and gentlemen we have a battle of two storms. In one corner, we have the totally wacky, really wonky, surprise snow 20th anniversary... @Ji storrrrrm! And in the other, ya got the fantasy land, Miller A cleeeeeean coastal... @Bob Chill storrrm!! Which will win? Will it be a draw? (as in either both snow or both bust) Showdown!! P.S. I think I'll bet imaginary money on the wonky storm! Teeam wonk! (but obviously I'll take either!)

Yes...very fast!!

Hey, for me, I'll take it whichever day we get it...as long as we get that every 3-4 year footer, lol But if it were to happen on the weekend thing through some wonky storm creating it's own cold air? Now THAT would be even more epic, lol

If that were to happen, I'd be kinda proud to say that I stayed checked in! (and mainly it's because of history, really...I mean sure, we could get our 3-4 year footer in sometime next month...but having it happen this way would be sweet, lol Does the trend continue?...)

The GFS is trying to play Dr. No this time, lol (but is it a little by itself with the transfer being further north?)

Now I have a couple of questions: Now, Ji mentioned the Jan 2011 storm...now I remember that one went from rain to snow. Now why is it that rain-to-snow scenarios don't happen as often around here as the opposite? And also...was 2011 a case of a storm making it's own cold air?

I think Chill kinda temporarily checked out (and he said he's been busy) and psu is just taking a break from the boards in general for a couple days. I'm sure Ji's around...lol

Hey, ya never know! (and I can't give up weekend either, lol)

I've been feeling the same way...Of course part of that may be the "historical trend" part of me that believes in the 3-4 year rule for 1 foot snowstorms, lol But in general, it does seem like whatever we get may be in a short window or two!

Something tells me...that IF we get any warning-level snow this winter at all...it's gonna be a foot that comes all at once...and then that's probably it, lol (ala 2006)

Oh is that what it does? (now I don't have anything other than TT, so I had assumed that wasn't the same low, lol) What the heck?

In what way?

Not sure whether this is freezing rain or not...temp on phone app says 30°...32° at TV Hill

I get ya...but of course you know we won't be able to help ourselves, lol

Oof!! How'd ya do that? Glad I'm not alone in feeling a bit better about next weekend! Pieces seem to be moving around...maybe some baby steps towards something better the next few days? (6z GFS crushed NE, lol Since that wasn't there yesterday...and the EURO also tipping ever so slightly to a different solution...I'm still gonna keep watching! Still a ways to go, though)

Thank you for making this, PSU. Ya know, maybe this is just my brain, but...sometimes when looking at these maps that show the -AO and all of those things...I have trouble visualizing the storm tracks while looking at them. Are there any vids that can show something like, say, an animation that illustrates a storm moving through/between these various atmospheric pieces?

Still a tiny improvement though, isn't it?

Yeah that Oz Guidance is a real wizard with the snow (sorry, couldn't resist. Now back to storm focus) So is the amount of moisture we get gonna kinda be a nowcasting thing? (how well do the models do with dry air and such ahead of time?)