ShawnEastTN
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Everything posted by ShawnEastTN
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January 28th-29th Clippers/NW Flow Obs/Last Minute Forecasts.
ShawnEastTN replied to John1122's topic in Tennessee Valley
Radars look pretty impressive in Illinois and Indiana rotating down this way for the evening. This might be quite a NW flow event, one strong enough to give a inch or so to valley locations. I can remember occasionally that occurring at my low valley elevation on the Tennessee River over the years. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk -
3k Nam has had similar looks off and on over the last 24 hours. Hoping for that type of setup like a frontal passage that gets enough lift to drop decent snow rates while passing. Definitely can make for a quick surprise. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk
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That could be interesting. That sort of look from previous arctic fronts while moisture starved have great rates and heavy thumping for short duration, a snow squall type event. While it may only snow for an hour or so that arctic front type event can put down 2" in spots in that hour. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk
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Yep some dry flurries my way here and there in the wind. Trapped low level moisture falling temp squeezing it out. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk
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Same here, technically got 4 times the amount modeled IMBY. I think it's a great concept for modeling but I think bias and climatology at least in some instances are possibly over emphasized in it's calculations, and maybe not emphasized enough in other situations. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk
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Could if the energy is stout enough valley locations could get involved and under banding. Yesterday there were advisories issued in Iowa and Minnesota as it was diving south they have since ended but up that way it was moisture starved so that was impressive for a moisture starved disturbance in an area that doesn't have elevation to aid in lift. As we know our mountains are great a 1 thing, that being trapping low level moisture. If enough lingers it could be a nice surprise event for even the central valley. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk
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Something im curious about is the clipper tonight/early morning. In similar situations like this with departing storm with clipper/energy on its heels there is often left over low level moisture from the storm for the clipper/energy to interact with and can make for an over producing event. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk
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@PowellVolz Not sure if it's energy transfer or if it's ptype changing from higher reflective ptypes to lesser reflective like sleet changing to snow. Active reports of snow falling still as far west as Oxford MS and near Jackson TN. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk
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Full mix snow, sleet, rain Meigs/Roane line. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk
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Ha ha Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk
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Wish I had your numbers... 38.7/36.1 Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk
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We need a lot of different things, track being probably primary issue to strength, don't want the surface low tracking too close. We want dynamic cooling to be stronger than any effects of warm nose and/or downsloping (if you are in the Eastern valley). We want the cold to filter in fastest possible. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk
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38 here and rain with what seems like partly melted flakes mixed in just started here. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk
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0z NAM non kuchera: Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk
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0z NAM is running looks pretty good Knox county west and south. Looks like downsloping delays precip east of Knox for a time. Out to 25. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk
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My PWS recorded the shockwave, Tellico and Blunder report theirs did too. Pretty awesome! Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk
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It's pretty fascinating areas in southern Illinois are still above freezing while western central Mississippi is below freezing. It's colder 100 miles south of Memphis than it is 100 miles north of Memphis. Here is roughly the freezing line. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk
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They had to convert a lot of winter weather advisories to winter storm warnings in Arkansas the storm way over performed for a lot of areas that were not expected to see anything at all or very little. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk
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Not something I see very often Chattanooga local TV WTVC News Channel 9 is not aligning with the NWS and channel 9 tends to be pretty conservative with snow but they are saying 1"-3" valley and 3"-6" or higher mountains. I think that is more reasonable than MRX forecast. Haven't checked Knoxville local stations, I live in an area where both cities TV stations are available. https://fb.watch/az7tq0RViK/ Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk
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All kind of confused my MRX forecast snow according to their map is 1-2" and Knoxville .5-1" Knox under advisory Roane/Meigs not, this really is bizarre even for normal MRX snow storms. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk
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My PWS caught it also! Didn't think about that data being ingested. Mine is also part of the NWS PWS program. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk
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Yeah I don't get it, maybe it'll verify and it will be the crowning achievement in modeling, but I think so much emphasis on climatological norms and bias will eventually lead to it being vastly wrong on a storm maybe this one, maybe not but eventually. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk
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For what it's worth 15z SREF plumes have increased for Knox and Chatt likey going to translate to a bump on 18 Z NAM. Knox: roughly 1.5" mean, with big dog at 8" Chatt: roughly 1.5" mean, with big dog at 7". Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk
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Looks beautiful! Would take that any day of the week. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk
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Same here overcast and 43. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk
