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ShawnEastTN

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Everything posted by ShawnEastTN

  1. ShawnEastTN
    I'm jealous Blount county is going to be a big winner! Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk
  2. ShawnEastTN
    Wow thread gone? Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk
  3. ShawnEastTN
    Disturbance seems to be holding together as it comes east.
  4. ShawnEastTN
    MEG has put out SPS regarding minor snow accumulations tonight for West Tennessee, Eastern Arkansas, and Northern Mississippi, something must be reaching ground level out there from that disturbance.
  5. ShawnEastTN
    As I see it two camps are forming, with the GFS possibly ending up on its own island over the next few runs. Ukie, Canadian, and Icon like the idea of a secondary low forming in the Carolinas or the Mid-Atlantic. The GFS and to a lesser degree Euro are just frontal passage with no low forming in the neighborhood. The Euro though seems to be trending toward the idea of a low developing in the Mid-Atlantic. This is going to be interesting to watch to see how it affects timing and speed of the system and whether it can over produce.
  6. ShawnEastTN
    I believe the ICON's "True snow:liquid ratio" is there own algorithm that is kuchera like.
  7. ShawnEastTN
    12Z Canadian Kuchera
  8. ShawnEastTN
    12Z GFS Kuchera for Tuesday storm.
  9. ShawnEastTN
    Although IMBY if I get more than an inch in one storm that will be the most I will have gotten in 1 storm in the last 2 seasons. I've only been dusted over and over the last 2 seasons.
  10. ShawnEastTN
    That is what I would like to see, a front alone makes me squeamish on getting too excited, but additional energy in our neck of the woods and not just way up in Georgian Bay and James Bay helps.
  11. ShawnEastTN
    Pivitol weather has good maps with kuchera ratios.
  12. ShawnEastTN
    Yeah I remember the one in 2010, but I don't think I got more than 2" from that one here at my house. I really only remember that one because of the crazy cold that followed and the inlet on Watts Bar Lake that I live on completely freezing then snow on the ice making for a surreal scene for this part of the country. Reminded me of my childhood in Michigan that year with the ice on the lake here.
  13. ShawnEastTN
    I remember many rain to snow events that dropped good snows, but most of those I remember were not anafrontal like what is modeled, I remember SLPs passing close enough to be rain in the valley over to wrap around snow/trowl that performed really well just can't pinpoint many plain jane anafrontal events. I remember a few surprise anafrontal events I think I remember that one in 94, and another in the early 2000's that even seemed to catch MRX off guard in terms of their forecast. I just don't remember many that were anafrontal moisture in the great valley that is, but I am down for however mother nature wants to deliver the goods.
  14. ShawnEastTN
    If we could get this to verify... Those ratios of course start on the low end but would rapidly rise through the whole event as modeled. Would be a fun storm, but part of me worries about getting excited for what is essentially anafrontal snow with as many times as they have been complete let downs. I can count on 1 hand how many times I got more than 2" of snow IMBY in an anafrontal scenario in the last 30 years. Maybe its just time for one to really perform for us.
  15. ShawnEastTN
    0Z GFS looks juicier than the 18Z so far for the Tues event.
  16. ShawnEastTN
    Also continues to advertise next Tuesdays event and even at 10:1 ratio which is likely low for the event's average the whole forum is 2-4". Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk
  17. ShawnEastTN
    Technically I prefer at this stage the precip show south and east of us. How many times over the years models show a massive accumulation over the forum area only for it to shift North and West plastering Kentucky for example in the final few days and blanking us. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk
  18. ShawnEastTN
    I was just about to post the same. Still seeing returns as far south and west as Little Rock. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk
  19. ShawnEastTN
    I am extremely excited, and hopeful but there is a part of me that begins to worry about storm track suppression if we can't get something at the start of the cold intrusion especially with it being so insanely strong. We seem to score at the start of an outbreak and when it begins to retreat so I'm hopeful we can get our break. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk
  20. ShawnEastTN
    It also seems like it's been quite a long time since I've seen the fantasy storms and cold being modeled relatively consistently. Maybe 3 or 4 years since I remember seeing multiple fantasy storms coming up on multiple runs. Of course getting them over the hump out of fantasy into closer range will be nice. I have to say I'm getting pretty excited, and I usually temper that quite a bit. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk
  21. ShawnEastTN
    850s look a bit better on 12z EPS at least at onset. Hopefully a trend. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk
  22. ShawnEastTN
    12z GFS has trended further south with the surface low by about 100 miles on panel 96 and 102. Hopefully the start of a trend. Edit:. At 108 even further south than previous run. Thermals all still look horrible. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk
  23. ShawnEastTN
    Can confirm as of just a minute ago they are convective. Nice close bolt in Kingston just down the road from Harriman. Made me jump as I was running to my car in the rain in a parking lot. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk
  24. ShawnEastTN
    I have to say I'm starting to worry about this season... Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk
  25. ShawnEastTN
    12Z GFS out to 54 looks about like a carbon copy of 6Z.
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