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ShawnEastTN

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  1. ShawnEastTN
    GFS running now...
  2. ShawnEastTN
    That famous north and west jog used to always be prevalent in the last 24 to 48 hour window of modeling.
  3. ShawnEastTN
    @Jed33@Holston_River_Rambler@tnweathernut Absolutely, I wouldn't tap out completely yet, we see this frequently year to year where a storm's northern precip shield is vastly under modeled, on one hand if that is the case and there is more dry air in northern areas (stronger and or further south High), could help with evaporational cooling for many in northern fringes. To me a tick south at this stage in the game isn't a bad thing. The FV3 is still generous.
  4. ShawnEastTN
    That is true. I know the feeling I stay colder in WAA situations for much longer and that is missed all the time. The areas around Roane, Rhea and Meigs for some reason seem to get trapped cold and get ice much longer than most in WAA. Always annoyed me they would not notice this happening over and over year after year. The southern plateau I believe creates a sort of shadow for the areas right along the plateau in the valley where WAA rides east of us and takes longer to filter in.
  5. ShawnEastTN
    Was reading their discussion and they are expecting a lot of sleet to cut into snow totals now there. It was a dramatic change by GSP.
  6. ShawnEastTN
    I think MRX just feels most confident about NE TN and SW VA and are waiting for another run or two before issuing further WSWs or WWAs. I bet overnight or in the morning we'll see more products issued for the area.
  7. ShawnEastTN
    MRX issues Winter Storm Watches for NE TN, SW VA, and Smokies.
  8. ShawnEastTN
    NAM coming in slightly weaker SLP by a mb, and slightly further south than last run at 45.
  9. ShawnEastTN
    Yep I only look at it once at 24 hours out for sure thing type of events to watch their amount trends, but only around the 24 hour mark for a storm that is an all but guarantee.
  10. ShawnEastTN
    18Z NAM out to 19, High is a mb lower but is also a tad further south by about 100 miles or so from its previous run.
  11. ShawnEastTN
    I know its not a much used/referenced model especially at the end of its run but the RGEM has pretty good feature placement at the end of its run. I love the RGEM in the short range, and while its not without its faults it has had some uncanny verifications at times in previous winters.
  12. ShawnEastTN
    You will get something and likely plenty of it you are in a much more favorable location than us in the great valley. You have much to be optimistic about. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk
  13. ShawnEastTN
    Winter Storm Watches are now up from New Mexico to Arkansas. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk
  14. ShawnEastTN
    WSW issued now from New Mexico to Arkansas. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk
  15. ShawnEastTN
    Yes!!! That was awful, over and over. Think that was 2 years back. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk
  16. ShawnEastTN
    Yeah the thing that worries me is the High seems to be pretty progressive in its move east. I am way more comfortable with the high sitting around the southern end of Lake Michigan. Or at least north or NW of us.
  17. ShawnEastTN
    12Z NAM of course at 84, but still not a bad look for feature placement.
  18. ShawnEastTN
    Closest traffic camera I could find to the band that appears to be still on going and fluctuating on radar.
  19. ShawnEastTN
    Had to travel this morning to our Sevierville office and saw some very light fine flaked snow showers this morning in Sevierville. Some cars I saw parked over night had snow on them.
  20. ShawnEastTN
    Awesome update AMZ! Jealous, but excited to see anyone in the forum especially this early in the game to be getting accumulation! Hopefully its a taste of whats really to come in winter.
  21. ShawnEastTN
    I'd also almost argue we would generally want AN or at least normal September and October to get a possible BN November, since we don't tend to keep cold air around very long in the forum especially late fall to early winter.
  22. ShawnEastTN
    Nice summer time OBS... Mt. LeConte weather station recorded an overnight low last night of 36 and high of only 53 yesterday!
  23. ShawnEastTN
    Hmm... Might explain why my Bell Peppers haven't done well this year, surely they can correctly identify my bell peppers from space and that they are not the illegal variety their secret program is intended for. I live about 10 miles or so as the crow flies to the NE of Watts Bar, so repeated radar views over the years especially after they brought the second reactor online I have noticed it enough to make me wonder if it were possible to enhance rainfall on the extreme local area.
  24. ShawnEastTN
    Wanted to post on this for a while, but it makes me feel a bit like I should be wearing a foil hat when I think about it. I've noticed that there are a lot of times but definitely not all the time, when there is a weather system or favorable conditions for storms that there is often a heavier bullseye of precip right near Watts Bar nuclear plant. Its not always over the plant but sometimes is, usually its just east, or north of the plant. I see this in a lot of events when checking both Hytop Radar, and MRX radar and both show the same thing. I've read a few stories on nuclear plants effecting really a micro-scale area with its steam discharge, one of the most interesting I read several years back was in PA. (Nuclear Plant Snow Article LiveScience) very interesting read. Was curious if the effect I see at Watts Bar is something similar. See attached radar image from MRX, Hytop corroborates the estimate. Could be coincidental, but I just wonder if there is the possibility of the mass amount of steam released has any potential impact on the micro scale. The image below the larger diameter circle is the area I usually see these anomalies the smaller circle is where the plant is located, just to the northwest inside the larger circle there are measurements over 2" precipitation . Any thoughts on this? Should I put my foil hat back on? BTW lurking waiting for winter....
  25. ShawnEastTN
    One of my favorite busts in a winter forecast in recent memory was February of 2015, its actually interesting to go back and look at the forecast thread and then the obs thread here on the forum for the event because it was such a serious bust for many. Initially the morning of the storm WWAs were issued for most of the great valley for 2-4". Then the event started in the late afternoon for southern areas around chatt, and was way over performing, MRX bumped to WSW for 3-6", then kept updating their snowfall graphic upward. Couple of those clips from the old thread below, by the time all was said and done many got between 7-12".
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