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ShawnEastTN

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Everything posted by ShawnEastTN

  1. ShawnEastTN
    By the 0z GFS having low sitting about 50 miles from Hatteras its another shift westward. Today the GFS has shifted the low track about 200 miles total westward. If we can get this thing running inside Hatteras like through Albemarle Sound that back far western precip shield will include Nashville. For GFS that is a trend westward with the low track on the operational through the day today. Also even as modeled the precip shield both north and west extent is under modeled likely as we see in these storms pretty much every year for as far as I can remember. Sent from my Pixel 7 using Tapatalk
  2. ShawnEastTN
    Hey anything sub 70 hours it's gospel! [emoji38] Sent from my Pixel 7 using Tapatalk
  3. ShawnEastTN
    Looks to me at hour 120 12Z GFS, the low is centered about 100 miles west of 6z GFS for the same point in time. If we can get that to continue until that sucker is nearer to the coast... At 120 that low though is 100 miles closer to Hatteras than it was at 6Z. Sent from my Pixel 7 using Tapatalk
  4. ShawnEastTN
    Hopefully it's a transition from the frontal passage scenario to a full blown storm. Will be interesting to see 0Z tonight. Euro went to popping a low, hopefully that is what GFS is heading toward. If we can get a low, get the front to stall or slow dramatically and the low head north we are in better shape than just Fropa. Sent from my Pixel 7 using Tapatalk
  5. ShawnEastTN
    Not just the lollipop, often the Chattanooga snow hole in models goes all the way to Roane county and rarely is that ever accurate. Usually in real life that snow hole is really primarily just Hamilton county but models drag it north to almost Oak Ridge often. Sent from my Pixel 7 using Tapatalk
  6. ShawnEastTN
    I don't either, usually those occur for warm nose, this setup just won't have one that pronounced I believe. 0z definitely has better looking QPF overall. Sent from my Pixel 7 using Tapatalk
  7. ShawnEastTN
    Rain snow mix at 38 IMBY. Sent from my Pixel 7 using Tapatalk
  8. ShawnEastTN
    I really wouldn't be surprised if in future runs it pops a low in the Gulf that hopefully will be a good tracking storm. Fingers crossed it does. Sent from my Pixel 7 using Tapatalk
  9. ShawnEastTN
    Agree, though I also think it appears to be moving through faster on 18z compared to previous runs. CAA seems to blast further south quicker. Sent from my Pixel 7 using Tapatalk
  10. ShawnEastTN
    Makes me question the calculations between Weatherbell and Pivotal weather as they don't seem to line up. Sent from my Pixel 7 using Tapatalk
  11. ShawnEastTN
    Here is kuchera Sunday before the storm. Sent from my Pixel 7 using Tapatalk
  12. ShawnEastTN
    Essentially only down around Chattanooga is it around an inch. Though I don't fully understand considering it depicted snow the entire time, so must be accounting on some mixing to occur there. Chattanooga aside it's roughly the same 3-4" with some spots going 5-6". Sent from my Pixel 7 using Tapatalk
  13. ShawnEastTN
    18Z GFS holds serve. Maybe a tad colder, and deeper with CAA speed. Basically full state snow, no mixing even Chattanooga rain snow line is close to Tennessee border but appears to stay south of state line. Sent from my Pixel 7 using Tapatalk
  14. ShawnEastTN
    Yeah I wanted to look at the Memphis radar but appears it's under maintenance so can't get a good look out that way. Sent from my Pixel 7 using Tapatalk
  15. ShawnEastTN
    Looks like the precip modeled to build into the region this evening and tonight for snow showers is starting to show on OHX radar heading east. See some Mping reports of snow and mixed precip near Memphis currently. Maybe this will over produce like the rain QPF did with this system. I wouldn't be surprised considering the Great Lakes are wide open and the storm is interacting with the open water as that low passes through the eastern lakes. Sent from my Pixel 7 using Tapatalk
  16. ShawnEastTN
    Roaring here too occasionally. It's so loud in the woods behind and around my house I can hear the roar through the trees if I have everything turned off in the house. Sent from my Pixel 7 using Tapatalk
  17. ShawnEastTN
    YES well said! QPF modeled for me from this event on Euro was 1.57, I received 3.46". Sent from my Pixel 7 using Tapatalk
  18. ShawnEastTN
    BTW not related to the coming event but Gatlinburg is blaring warning sirens with loud speaker messages asking people to seek higher ground. [emoji991] Watch this video on Facebook https://www.facebook.com/share/v/VD8qmva8V7ih8Q5u/?mibextid=4p3i6U Sent from my Pixel 7 using Tapatalk
  19. ShawnEastTN
    Absolutely! Years of marginal temps, this would be awesome. Also not a typical southern snow that is gone the next day, as modeled mostly we'd have snow on the ground for up to a week. I haven't seen that in at least a decade. Sent from my Pixel 7 using Tapatalk
  20. ShawnEastTN
    OHX on FB just now: Sent from my Pixel 7 using Tapatalk
  21. ShawnEastTN
    I am too usually from south winds as my exposure is north with a ridge generally blocking south winds. Usually in strong south winds I can hear them roaring up the ridge from my house. Though even with that protection I still tend to somehow get the odd gust that comes down the ridge. Those odd gusts have been numerous in the last hour, more than normal. Sent from my Pixel 7 using Tapatalk
  22. ShawnEastTN
    I was surprised by that also. I guess using their modeling of winds seemed to show an area with a lull in the center of the central valley. Might be a big bust in their forecast. Sent from my Pixel 7 using Tapatalk
  23. ShawnEastTN
    I believe it the wind in the last hour has increased rapidly here. Only gusts to about 15 an hour ago but now gusting past 30. Sent from my Pixel 7 using Tapatalk
  24. ShawnEastTN
    Yeah pretty awesome look, especially if we get snow right at the onset. IMBY it's been a really long time since I had snow that lasted even in patches longer than 3 days, and considering I live on the north side of a ridge which gives lots of protection from solar radiation that says a lot. It's been years for me, probably all the way back to the back to back events in 2014 and before that probably 2007. Basically a decade ago to find snow that lingered on the ground more than 3 days. Sent from my Pixel 7 using Tapatalk
  25. ShawnEastTN
    Schools down this way have begun closing for tomorrow. Crazy I don't recall school closing when I was a kid due to forecast winds. Meigs, McMinn, and Bradley among others have all closed for tomorrow. Sent from my Pixel 7 using Tapatalk
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