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high risk

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Everything posted by high risk

  1. high risk
    The wind profiles looked better in model runs earlier today, so the UH tracks in the 00z suite don't look quite as impressive overall, but the overall shear Thursday will be a significant improvement over today.
  2. high risk
    Looking at the 00z NAM nest, HRRR, and Hi-Res Windows, the NAM nest has by far the lowest amount of coverage of storms.
  3. high risk
    realizing that most people didn't see any storm today out of the ENH risk and are demoralized, but the 00z suite has kicked out with the HRRR continuing to look good for tomorrow. Tomorrow's setup may actually be less complicated.
  4. high risk
    not gonna lie - that sounding showing less instability than progged (along with the HRRR runs) is giving me concern. but I'm absolutely not ready to call "bust"
  5. high risk
    it's also key that we're way hotter, and the LCL heights are much higher. That deeply mixed, relatively dry PBL would cause any supercells this far south to gust out quickly.
  6. high risk
    We're almost certain to get a blue box later. I agree that the TOR threat is limited even in PA, but while the low level winds are meh, the overall shear is decent. So I see SPC's thought that any modification of the low-level winds by the front or storm interactions could lead to a TOR.
  7. high risk
    hahaha. There is no way that any box for us isn't blue.
  8. high risk
    you can see how the blue box later will fit in nicely across eastern WV, northern VA, and MD SPC forecasters refer to this process as "boxology"
  9. high risk
    today for sure with the weak low-level shear and hot, mixed PBL. We're talking about tomorrow, when the low-level shear is stronger, and the PBL structure is more favorable. Not expecting a TOR outbreak, but the potential for a couple of TORs seems reasonable.
  10. high risk
    Actually, I'm probably guilty of extracting WAY too much detail out of day 2 model guidance, but 4 out of 5 CAMs this morning (among HRRR, NAM nest, and Hi-Res Windows) show a nice UH track across Howard County tomorrow.
  11. high risk
    Low-level shear is absolutely way better tomorrow, and the PBL won't be as deep as today.
  12. high risk
    Yes! Based on the 12z HRRR and NAM nest, tomorrow is a SLGT risk for sure, and I wouldn't rule out eventually getting to ENH.
  13. high risk
    all 3 hires windows look terrific for later today.
  14. high risk
    embedded sups are definitely possible, but with a deep PBL with accompanying inverted-V sounding, it would be really tough to get any rotation down to the ground.
  15. high risk
    That's one heck of a squall line on the 12z NAM nest. I'm going to conveniently ignore that the only area where a solid 450 mile line falls apart is Howard and Montgomery Counties.....
  16. high risk
    Looks like it would be a sharp cutoff for the better stuff, so the Montgomery-Howard corridor could still do quite well. But yeah, this has been an annoying couple of days. We actually get into some impressive flow aloft tomorrow, so while instability will be less, it has potential to be better than the MRGL currently shown.
  17. high risk
    I think it nicely fits the general idea that the more significant threat will overall stay north of DC.
  18. high risk
    Thanks! But I'm tallying this as a loss. SPC is more aggressive than I am....
  19. high risk
    Those unimpressive 00z CAM runs were likely outliers. These recent HRRR runs fit the earlier progs - I'm still in for an enhanced day. I'm thinking 2% TOR, 15 % HAIL, and 30% WIND on the new Day 1.
  20. high risk
    yeah, huge discrepancy between 18z NAM3 and recent HRRR runs.
  21. high risk
    No.
  22. high risk
    perhaps some modest supercell structure, but the low level wind profile is meh, and the 88/70 environment would cause it to quickly gust out.
  23. high risk
    I don't see tomorrow as a MDT risk day here. Comparing the supercell parade in PA today, 1) The overall strength of the wind field in the column will be weaker here tomorrow 2) The low-level shear won't be nearly as strong 3) We are going to be much hotter tomorrow than in PA today, meaning that any supercells will gust out and lead to upscale growth. I just don't think we'll have a fully discrete mode. There will be SVR around, but the ENH covers the threat pretty well.
  24. high risk
    Thanks, but I'm more easily impressed than they are.
  25. high risk
    FWIW, most of the guidance today actually shows us making a run at 90 again on Thursday. The trigger mechanism for Thursday storms isn't as defined, but there is definitely some threat of storms later in the day (possibly severe).
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