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high risk

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About high risk

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  • Four Letter Airport Code For Weather Obs (Such as KDCA)
    KBWI
  • Gender
    Male
  • Location:
    North Laurel, MD

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  1. high risk
    I'd usually agree with you. But as we now move into CAM range, recognizing that the U.S. CAMs all have some influence of the GFS, the solutions seem to be favoring the GFS more. The idea of a deep sfc low over the St Lawrence Valley isn't dead in the Euro, but even its AI version likes a secondary low in the Mid-Atlantic. Verbatim, some pretty strong forcing rolls through during the morning and midday hours, which screams flash flooding more than severe. That said, 1) a surface low will be nearby, so you always need to watch for a tornado threat, especially if we can heat up before the forcing arrives 2) there is time to change some of the synoptic details
  2. high risk
    Multiple CAMs break out scattered showers (thunder?) in the area Sunday afternoon lasting into the evening.
  3. high risk
    The Euro is a legit severe solution for Tuesday. The GFS screams "dying MCS moves through at 9AM and kills off the afternoon threat".
  4. high risk
    HRRR wants to bring another line through the area in a few hours. Verbatim, it's mainly for areas south of DC, but there are certainly cells further north in eastern WV than modeled.
  5. high risk
    The radar west of Philly is what our radar was supposed to look like now
  6. high risk
    I don't like seeing that east-west line to our south at all.
  7. high risk
    It might temper the severe threat somewhat, but getting significant storms seems to still be on track. Each HRRR cycle this morning has been catching on to the fact that we won't get the amount of heating previously expected, and it still initiates widespread heavy convection.
  8. high risk
    Heating is obviously a concern, but assuming we bust out into some partial clearing by late morning, HRRR and RRFS both have a couple of interesting lead cells followed by a squall line feature.
  9. high risk
    SPC issued MDTs on back to back days with Ivan. The first day over the southeast somewhat busted, as too much cloud cover limited instability. On the second day, we did eventually get a MDT into parts of northern VA, but the threat was not obvious until it evolved in real time. This was the initial outlook of the day. The area with a 5% got a SLGT. (The probabilities ramped up starting with the 1630Z outlook.)
  10. high risk
    Sign me up for the 00Z HRRR.
  11. high risk
    This isn't true at all. All NWS gridded forecasts use the NBM which combines lots of available computer models. For Days 4-7, WPC can make some minimal edits and get some input from WFOs, but they mostly leave the NBM alone. For Days 0-3, the WFOs can be a bit more heavy-handed, but they are still encouraged to limit their editing.
  12. high risk
    Beyond day 3 is generated using the NBM, but WPC is allowed to make some minor edits (with input from the local offices). It is NOT AI-based.
  13. high risk
    There has been a clear trend in the guidance for more favorable timing for our area.
  14. high risk
    I like what I see in the CAMs that go out to Tuesday evening (NAM Nest, HiResW FV3, RRFS). Multiple rounds of storms on a pre-frontal trough / wind shift, and possibly another line in the evening (although I suspect our environment will be worked over from the afternoon storms). Environmental parameters are solid. And for those looking to maximize rainfall, we could see an early round of storms late Monday night or early Tuesday morning as the warm front lifts to the northeast.
  15. high risk
    Getting enough low-level shear was always in doubt for this event, especially once the warm front quickly retreated to the northeast during the late morning hours. The mid-level wind speeds underperformed a bit, relative to guidance, but there should have been enough deep-layer shear for fairly widespread wind, given the magnitude of the instability. I think you're correct that the profile was overall too moist to achieve a high end wind event.
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