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high risk

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About high risk

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  • Four Letter Airport Code For Weather Obs (Such as KDCA)
    KBWI
  • Gender
    Male
  • Location:
    North Laurel, MD

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  1. high risk
    I like what I see in the CAMs that go out to Tuesday evening (NAM Nest, HiResW FV3, RRFS). Multiple rounds of storms on a pre-frontal trough / wind shift, and possibly another line in the evening (although I suspect our environment will be worked over from the afternoon storms). Environmental parameters are solid. And for those looking to maximize rainfall, we could see an early round of storms late Monday night or early Tuesday morning as the warm front lifts to the northeast.
  2. high risk
    Getting enough low-level shear was always in doubt for this event, especially once the warm front quickly retreated to the northeast during the late morning hours. The mid-level wind speeds underperformed a bit, relative to guidance, but there should have been enough deep-layer shear for fairly widespread wind, given the magnitude of the instability. I think you're correct that the profile was overall too moist to achieve a high end wind event.
  3. high risk
    Looks somewhat similar to today, with perhaps weaker instability but better wind fields. Same idea of a poorly-timed front, but plenty of storms forming on a lee or some other type of pre-frontal trough.
  4. high risk
    All of what you said is legit, but I'm leaning now towards the idea that this was an artifact. As you said, getting a strike super far away from the core is possible, but I think you need a much more powerful setup than we had today.
  5. high risk
    Yeah, the good low-level shear is closer to the warm front in NJ.
  6. high risk
    Winds were probably in the 40mph here. Impressive rain rates. Radar suggests that we're not done.
  7. high risk
    Close. I said that the deep layer shear favored the storms to rotate, but the low-level shear (which is needed to get the rotating storms to produce tornadoes) was fairly marginal.
  8. high risk
    I think they're going to do what I suggested earlier. Put a tornado box to our east and northeast where the better low-level shear is in place, and put a severe box over the rest of MD and northern and central VA.
  9. high risk
    It's going to be an active day for sure, but I'm not sure I'm ready to say that it will be memorable. You're spot on about the high end instability, but while the shear is good, low-level shear is marginal and might actually decrease through the afternoon as the warm front advances to the northeast.
  10. high risk
    Time for that box, SPC.... Wind profiles definitely favor rotation today. Whether the rotation can be achieved at low levels is less clear.
  11. high risk
    What the heck is that random lightning strike near Damascus???
  12. high risk
    It does, although as their discussion mentions, the wind profiles are much more supportive of tornadoes to our northeast. Personally, I would put a tornado box over NJ, DE, southeast PA, and a severe box over MD and VA, but I can see where those shapes don't really fit around the initial box over PA.
  13. high risk
    It's worth watching, for sure. With the westerly flow aloft, even 190 or 200 degree winds (SSW) at the surface might be enough to make things interesting. Most of the guidance veers us to more fully southwest ahead of storm development, though, and surface wind speeds may not be particularly strong. If that's wrong, yes, a tornado or two would be possible. My guess now is that we'll have some supercell structures (and a tornado warning or two) with the favorable deep-layer shear but not enough low-level shear for tornadoes.
  14. high risk
    It's very warm to our south, so a fast warmup could absolutely occur, but I'm worried. While the guidance is all over the place, most initiate storms along the lee trough or some other boundary this afternoon. That said, the models have most of the area getting into the 90s, so if the clouds from the PA activity retard heating, we could end up with limited / weaker storms. It's also worth noting that the RRFS really wants to clock us late evening with the line dropping south out of PA, even though most over guidance has it falling apart. Bottom line is that I'm cautiously optimistic for rainfall today, and the severe threat is real if we get some heating, but there is definitely a path to many of us getting nada.
  15. high risk
    Massive win.
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