Jump to content

high risk

Meteorologist
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    3,307

  • Joined

  • Last visited

About high risk

Profile Information

  • Four Letter Airport Code For Weather Obs (Such as KDCA)
    KBWI
  • Gender
    Male
  • Location:
    North Laurel, MD

Recent Profile Visitors

7,514 profile views
  1. high risk
    12Z Euro and our rapidly-aging uncle the NAM Nest definitely give credence to the idea that at least a chunk of our weekend will be messy.
  2. high risk
    Euro really wants to retrograde the coastal low and ruin the second part of the upcoming weekend.
  3. high risk
    Yeah, it's pretty clear that it won't be the 3-5 day event that guidance had been showing, but most of us should still get a nice soaking between now and Wednesday morning. (And there could even be a backdoor sneak attack from the coastal on Saturday if you want to buy into the ECMWF.)
  4. high risk
    Remarkably, the slower NAM timing yesterday seems like it’s going to be correct, and that hurts the setup here.
  5. high risk
    Besides the overall NAM Nest struggles this summer that you've documented, this looks to be a classic case of the NAM being too slow with the system, causing it to arrive at a very unfavorable time. Its timing is a clear outlier for now.
  6. high risk
    Morning CAMs suggest a heavy rainfall threat Saturday evening (timing unsurprisingly still somewhat in doubt). Good signal for convection spreading east ahead of a shortwave into an axis of very high PWs and some instability.
  7. high risk
    I was really surprised when this popped up on my Radarscope. The HRRR hates this event, and while WPC talked up the 850 mb confluence, it seems kind of subtle to me. That said, the RRFS likes it to some extent, as did some of the cams earlier today, and storms are indeed firing across central PA. I'll be surprised if anything makes it southwest of Baltimore, but it's worth monitoring for a while this evening.
  8. high risk
    It’s actually more likely the storms firing out ahead over northeast Ohio. That would be better, because we want these storms to arrive as early as possible.
  9. high risk
    The front is slower than had been shown, so the updated Day2 has expanded the SLGT back to the north. Still tons of CAM disagreement (of course).
  10. high risk
    Sorry. Bad wording on my part. The southeast PA reference was regarding where the complex heads as it moves out of western PA.
  11. high risk
    There seems to be growing consensus that an intense MCS will form over northeast OH and western PA late this afternoon and move southeast. While it (shocker) appears that the best threat will be over southeast PA, at least some of the complex should make it into northern MD and potentially into the Baltimore-Washington corridor later this evening or overnight.
  12. high risk
    Certainly sounds like SPC is going to issue a new box over us soon.
  13. high risk
    Hard not to think that this cluster will persist south of the M-D line, although instability isn't what it could have been, given that the eastern half of the area has easterly winds behind that weak backdoor front.
  14. high risk
    I personally don't look at it very often, as it's still being tweaked. That said, it's the future, so as it matures, I'll definitely be looking more often.
  15. high risk
    Correct. HRRR, NAM Nest, RRFS, and the three Hires Windows (FV3, ARW, ARW2).
×
×
  • Create New...