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high risk

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About high risk

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  • Four Letter Airport Code For Weather Obs (Such as KDCA)
    KBWI
  • Gender
    Male
  • Location:
    North Laurel, MD

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  1. high risk
    Definitely can! I think that the timing isn't good for most of us, although there appears to be a signal for some earlier storms dropping southeast into northeastern MD.
  2. high risk
    You only need to go back one page in this discussion to read about the setup.
  3. high risk
    Multiple CAMs nailed this. Radar looks very convective, with some lightning strikes to our northwest.
  4. high risk
    Hoping for some thunder later tonight. Seems to be some general consensus for a band of showers during the dinner hours, and then a second round of more scattered but also heavier cells closer to midnight. Lapse rates will sharpen a bit as the shortwave swings through, so I don't think that we can rule out some lightning.
  5. high risk
    Kinda glad that this wind is occurring. Even though it's long after the MDT was dropped, it will help verify the threat in the public's eye and remove some of the "cry wolf" narrative.
  6. high risk
    They rarely trim things back unless there is a huge clear-cut signal to do so, with strong model consensus.
  7. high risk
    Oh, absolutely. The ceiling for this event is way higher than we usually see around here. I’m just pointing out that we shouldn’t be shocked if this ends up way short of its potential. The 00z CAM suite was far from a slam dunk.
  8. high risk
    It’s still a go in terms of the categories and percentages that they’re rolling with, but the actual text mentions multiple ways this could bust.
  9. high risk
    I don’t see this as getting to a high risk tomorrow. If you read the updated day 2, they note a number of potential problems. Again, the ceiling for this event is very, very high. But the floor, while still significant, is lower than some people realize.
  10. high risk
    Oh, and anyone trying to nail down the timing should never look at the NAMs. They’re always a couple of hours late with these events.
  11. high risk
    Hahaha. I don’t want to move on that chart. Maybe it’s because I’m out of town, but while I completely buy the high-end scenarios, there are a still a few things I don’t like about the setup. I would gladly exchange some of the shear to get more instability. Yes, there is still some cape, and maybe it’s enough, but the forecast soundings have tall, very skinny cape which sometimes doesn’t get the job done. That said, it’s tough to ignore that a forced line of convection will roll through in an environment that can certainly bring some big wind to the surface.
  12. high risk
    The high end scenario is still very real. The fail scenario is still very real.
  13. high risk
    Yes and yes. The failures are way too many to note, but a famous day when we successfully recovered is the La Plata event.
  14. high risk
    I think that’s reasonable, although climo says (and guidance agrees) that the best tornado threat will be even further south.
  15. high risk
    The high end potential is definitely there, but two things stand out 1) a clear trend towards earlier timing 2) a lot of guidance showing clouds and showers well ahead of the main forcing. With the right timing, the early convection could be supercells, but the trend towards an earlier event opens the door to insufficient time to recover after morning showers.
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