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high risk

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About high risk

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  • Four Letter Airport Code For Weather Obs (Such as KDCA)
    KBWI
  • Gender
    Male
  • Location:
    North Laurel, MD

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  1. high risk
    Initiation ahead of schedule in the local area. Expecting an MD from SPC soon.
  2. high risk
    Yeah, the HRRR develops storms in that general vicinity. NAM Nest develops convection over northern VA
  3. high risk
    They evolve differently, but the HRRR and NAM Nest both like the I-95 corridor in MD around or just after sunset.
  4. high risk
    If today happens, it's going to be a late show.
  5. high risk
    As others have alluded to, the lower dew points yesterday probably led to so much downdraft cape that the damaging winds superseded the heavy rainfall threat. With higher dews today, the HRRR in particular suggests a greater heavy rain threat, although it delays initiation later than several other cams.
  6. high risk
    Impressive number of reports today in the Mid-Atlantic, but a noticeable hole over northern Virginia.
  7. high risk
    Yeah, I have doubts too, but we need to let this play out. Some initiation now in Montgomery County. Outflow boundaries could explode in this environment.
  8. high risk
    WPC heavy rainfall discussion suggests that experimental WoFS guidance really lights up the 95 corridor over the next few hours.
  9. high risk
    If we're not going to use the severe thread, we should rename this thread to include the storm threat.
  10. high risk
    Dew points have legitimately crashed. That doesn’t seem to be hindering storm development to the west, and irs probably increasing the wind threat (with larger downdraft cape), but it *might* limit coverage a bit.
  11. high risk
    The lower dew points give me pause for sure, but I feel better seeing that even the HRRR, which overmixes the crap out of our area this afternoon, initiates a modest coverage of storms locally.
  12. high risk
    Wasn't expecting the box to come that far south, but as noted above, there is at least some cam support for it. Also, RRFS going operational is delayed until October.
  13. high risk
    While Friday is indeed capped with no real trigger, there are a couple of CAMs that have a complex of storms dropping south out of PA during the early evening and initiating new storms in our area on the outflow. That said, I'm certainly on board with the prevailing idea of better chances of storms Saturday-Monday with severe and flash flood threats.
  14. high risk
    Would be really nice to be able to lock in a heavy precip event, but there is just too much uncertainty with position of the front, timing of waves, and overall strength of the system. My dream heavy rain scenario is convection along (or just behind) the front later Friday, overrunning showers and storms Friday night, and more elevated convection Saturday with the front hanging around and a shortwave.
  15. high risk
    Nope. The ongoing stratiform rain over us is what I was calling "round 2", and the HRRR seems to have a very good handle on this. After this ends soon, I think we have to wait until tomorrow morning.
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