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high risk

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About high risk

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  • Four Letter Airport Code For Weather Obs (Such as KDCA)
    KBWI
  • Gender
    Male
  • Location:
    North Laurel, MD

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  1. high risk
    The gust front gave us close to severe winds here in southern Howard County. A transformer exploded and caused a small fire in the woods which the downpours extinguished before the fire trucks arrived. Currently no power.
  2. high risk
    Nothing in the current or forecast parameters looks particular unfavorable, unless I’m missing something. I think that SPC agrees, given the inclusion of northern MD in the ENH area.
  3. high risk
    Guidance is emphatic that the line will fall apart as it moves across northern MD, but I'm not sure that I can justify why that would happen.
  4. high risk
    This little line moving through now is NOT the main front; it’s some sort of pre-frontal trough feature. The front won’t move through until later tonight.
  5. high risk
    The 3 HiRes Windows are notably early with the convection which would give us a fighting chance, as the shear is actually decent. The HRRR, NAM Nest, and RRFS are too late with the arrival of any storms.
  6. high risk
    The problem is that the front has trended faster, so it’s increasingly likely that it moves though during the unfavorable time of day.
  7. high risk
    Whatever threat the DC-Baltimore area has today will be an early show.
  8. high risk
    Persistent signal in the CAMs for heavy rainfall tonight in the counties along the MD/PA border.
  9. high risk
    Day 2 SLGT now includes DC. MRGL extends north to the MD/PA border.
  10. high risk
    There is a clear trend towards slowing down the front on Wednesday, which means that SPC will likely need to adjust their MRGL back to the northwest to include more of the local area. The shear/instability combo might even support a SLGT.
  11. high risk
    I think that is on the right track. The focus for the heavy rain today will definitely be well to the northwest, and while it will eventually sink southeast into the metro areas later this afternoon, it will be weakening as it does.
  12. high risk
    Will reach 1" with the next batch about to arrive in southern Howard County
  13. high risk
    I don't think that these are surfaced-based storms. The low, rolling thunder suggests an inversion, and elevated cape makes sense given the overnight height falls.
  14. high risk
    Yes! CAMs have been in overall good agreement that multiple rounds of convection move across the area overnight, except for southern MD. Then more heavy showers erupt tomorrow around midday and gradually sink to the southeast.
  15. high risk
    Definitely consistent with the idea that this is mainly a threat north of 66 (VA) 50 (MD).
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