high risk

Seems to be setting up a regional model vs global model battle. Good to see multiple CAMs in the 00Z suite give much of us at least 0.5" out of this event.

Definitely a camp of solutions that has a bit of a SW--> NE strung-out low solution for Sunday instead of a consolidated storm along the coast.

If you had said that the models had major disagreement and inconsistency all week, you would have been correct. But you wrote that the "models had nothing about this until now". That is spectacularly and embarrassingly wrong. You can read discussion about this being a legitimate threat in the medium range as far back as Monday.

That isn't even remotely true.

Small line of showers, seemingly right along the front. Winds have really picked up.

I don't consider that the "local area", but to each his own. Western MD has been consistently proved to get a significant rainfall from this event, and it has played out. The model QPF for the DC-Baltimore corridor is notably less, but there will be a corridor that jackpots over 0.50". Let's hope that ends up being a wide corridor. edit: and OF COURSE, the NAM Nest comes in way wetter for everyone within seconds after I type my comment......

We need to set reasonable expectations for overnight. A number of CAMs suggest that there will be a narrow WSW-ENE swath of just over 0.50" somewhere between Alexandria and Baltimore, but much of the local area will be fortunate to see 0.25".

Huge uncertainty for the weekend persists. Cool temps and gusty northeast winds seem fairly likely, but whether we get a soaking, nothing, or something in between is completely unresolved, although it does appear like the potential for a significant QPF event is waning.

It wasn’t consistent, but even before Saturday, there were some ECAIFS runs last week that showed the coastal threat. I remain thoroughly impressed by what the ECAIFS can sniff out well before the physics-based models catch on.

You've noted several recent cases in which the ECAIFS led the way in identifying a threat, and this is likely to be another example.

If there is going to be a period of more widespread showers, it looks to be very early Thursday. Otherwise, there will be some big winners with the scattered convection each day (especially Thursday), but it doesn't look to be particularly widespread.

Oh, what the hell! Let's fire up the SVR thread for perhaps its last hurrah of 2025. MRGL for tomorrow - the shear/instability combo isn't great, but I could see a few decent wind gusts. Will be very happy with thunder and heavy rain. The CAMs today mostly favored DC and points south, but the HRRR has kicked off the evening suite by favoring generally north of DC.

The simulated radar products from the CAMs for the next 2 days look more like what I'd expect to see in July instead of late September.

Woke up to a heavy shower around 3am or so and found a gloriously unexpected 0.15" in my gauge this morning.

Now that we're in CAM range, what really stands out to me is that this is going to me much more of a showery event than the rain shield I was expecting.