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high risk

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About high risk

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  • Four Letter Airport Code For Weather Obs (Such as KDCA)
    KBWI
  • Gender
    Male
  • Location:
    North Laurel, MD

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  1. high risk
    What a bummer. We're about to enter what I consider our climatological "legit severe" peak, and looking through the next 2 weeks, I can barely find chances of thunder, much less severe. And yes, I consider our peak from around May 10 - June 20. After June 20, we can get some localized wind and maybe a derecho every 5-10 years (and of course a tropical system), but our best threats for organized, higher-end severe in my mind usually falls during that period.
  2. high risk
    While the early evening convection will be scattered, HRRR trends favor more widespread coverage towards midnight.
  3. high risk
    Unless we're going to suddenly spike into the 80s, a severe threat here just isn't happening. It doesn't help that storms at peak heating will be isolated, while convection will become more widespread after dark when we start to cool. I'd be thrilled to just hear thunder.
  4. high risk
    I think they're bored. But seriously, the shear is great, but as they noted, there just isn't any instability to work with. Unless that changes, the general thunder outlook is reasonable.
  5. high risk
    Yeah, it had been looking especially good for a Thursday overrunning event, but that now looks like it will be further south
  6. high risk
    I don't really understand the MRGL for the DC area. It makes some sense for areas further south and west, but while the low-level shear should be decent this evening, there really isn't much of a path to sfc-based instability. I'll be happy if we can just get some heavy convective elements with thunder.
  7. high risk
    I still haven't seen any guidance today that suggests that SVR is possible in this area, except for those in southern PA or possibly western and northeastern MD. We might, however, get some thunder very early Monday. SPC might retain the MRGL where it already is for continuity, but the timing for most of us for this event is way off.
  8. high risk
    Definitely can! I think that the timing isn't good for most of us, although there appears to be a signal for some earlier storms dropping southeast into northeastern MD.
  9. high risk
    You only need to go back one page in this discussion to read about the setup.
  10. high risk
    Multiple CAMs nailed this. Radar looks very convective, with some lightning strikes to our northwest.
  11. high risk
    Hoping for some thunder later tonight. Seems to be some general consensus for a band of showers during the dinner hours, and then a second round of more scattered but also heavier cells closer to midnight. Lapse rates will sharpen a bit as the shortwave swings through, so I don't think that we can rule out some lightning.
  12. high risk
    Kinda glad that this wind is occurring. Even though it's long after the MDT was dropped, it will help verify the threat in the public's eye and remove some of the "cry wolf" narrative.
  13. high risk
    They rarely trim things back unless there is a huge clear-cut signal to do so, with strong model consensus.
  14. high risk
    Oh, absolutely. The ceiling for this event is way higher than we usually see around here. I’m just pointing out that we shouldn’t be shocked if this ends up way short of its potential. The 00z CAM suite was far from a slam dunk.
  15. high risk
    It’s still a go in terms of the categories and percentages that they’re rolling with, but the actual text mentions multiple ways this could bust.
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