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high risk

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About high risk

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  • Four Letter Airport Code For Weather Obs (Such as KDCA)
    KBWI
  • Gender
    Male
  • Location:
    North Laurel, MD

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  1. high risk
    As some of you have noted, there is absolutely low level shear today, and the low LCLs also suggest that a brief tornado or two is possible. The overall strength of the wind fields probably doesn't support a more significant threat, but I would not be surprised to see a few tornado warnings.
  2. high risk
    Current target is early October.
  3. high risk
    It was interesting how the overnight runs looked pretty good, and then the 12Z suite (and a HRRR cycle or two after that) didn't look as good, before the HRRR locked on to the solution by late morning. And I'll be curious to see how many tornadoes are actually found. There were probably way more warnings than needed, but I'm wondering if they'll find more than the current count of one (good video of a tornado on the Eastern Shore north of Cambridge). Ultimately, we probably weren't far off from a more significant tornado event, but as you suggested in your post, the low-level winds were probably just a bit too weak, although I think that the low-level profile was slightly better than what the RRFS and GFS/ECMWF were suggesting last night.
  4. high risk
    The guidance trends were really interesting. Things were looking encouraging for fairly significant storms in the early runs on Tuesday, and then the cycles right after the raob data became available looked fairly lousy (as noted in your post). Then, the HRRR started locking in again on the more significant solutions.
  5. high risk
    You're not exactly going out on a limb with that prediction....
  6. high risk
    Sort of. That day involved some local storms that initiated followed by the main band along the forcing arriving from the northwest during the evening hours. This looks to be a line forming just to our northwest during the early/mid afternoon and rolling through at dinner time before making a quick exit. There is some curvature in the hodographs, so the tornado threat is definitely non-zero, although the forcing may result in a more linear structure. The box will go up for northern sections first, because there is good cam agreement on an initial wave of storms for northeast MD/PA/NJ earlier this afternoon.
  7. high risk
    The evening cams don't fully sort out the details, but if we look for some modest consensus, the morning MCS threat for most of us has decreased a lot. And the severe threat ramps up quickly after lunch. Even if some cloud cover reduces the heating, I don't think that's a big deal unless we stay really cool. Full heating is not critical to this event, because we have forcing and good shear. Some solutions still screw us in terms of coverage and rainfall, but again, I'm looking for some sort of consensus, and the screw outcomes are on the table but seemingly less likely. Oh, and there is case to be made for including a corridor bounding roughly Rocky Mount, NC to Harrisburg to Trenton and all points to the east with a tornado threat (5%). SPC might keep our local area in a 2, but a 5 would be justifiable, as some solutions keep the sfc low just to our west or northwest with modestly increasing low level flow during the afternoon beneath strengthening west-northwest mid-level flow..
  8. high risk
    It was not an obvious tornado day either, and in fairness to the forecast, that appears to be the only high-end tornado event today. (Yes, there was more widespread wind damage). It unfortunately got its act together in a very populated area.
  9. high risk
    I think so too, but this is still really complicated, and the 12Z suite hasn't locked in on anything yet. It *does* seem like while the main MCS will be west of here in the morning hours, some piece of it will approach and probably strengthen a bit. If it arrives around commute time, it will probably be sub-severe, but if it's mid-morning, severe is possible. Guidance then differs sharply on how much heating will occur behind any morning activity, but how much will it matter. Steepening lapse and strong forcing might compensate for limited surface heating. At least scattered storms are likely by mid-afternoon, and some solutions are widespread. All hazards would be possible; the low-level winds are probably too weak for tornadoes, but the directional shear will be there, so it wouldn't take much to increase the tornado threat.
  10. high risk
    I'd usually agree with you. But as we now move into CAM range, recognizing that the U.S. CAMs all have some influence of the GFS, the solutions seem to be favoring the GFS more. The idea of a deep sfc low over the St Lawrence Valley isn't dead in the Euro, but even its AI version likes a secondary low in the Mid-Atlantic. Verbatim, some pretty strong forcing rolls through during the morning and midday hours, which screams flash flooding more than severe. That said, 1) a surface low will be nearby, so you always need to watch for a tornado threat, especially if we can heat up before the forcing arrives 2) there is time to change some of the synoptic details
  11. high risk
    Multiple CAMs break out scattered showers (thunder?) in the area Sunday afternoon lasting into the evening.
  12. high risk
    The Euro is a legit severe solution for Tuesday. The GFS screams "dying MCS moves through at 9AM and kills off the afternoon threat".
  13. high risk
    HRRR wants to bring another line through the area in a few hours. Verbatim, it's mainly for areas south of DC, but there are certainly cells further north in eastern WV than modeled.
  14. high risk
    The radar west of Philly is what our radar was supposed to look like now
  15. high risk
    I don't like seeing that east-west line to our south at all.
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