jbenedet

Most of SNE is socked in clouds and the clouds are thickening with time. It's not a nice start to the weekend in most areas down there, particularly near the shore by anyone's standards. Kevin took that pic near ORH at a good time, to peddle his 70-75 narrative, and some of you are biting... http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/SAT_PA/anim8vis.html

Lol. Don't show him this for tomorrow. http://www.nws.noaa.gov/cgi-bin/mos/getmav.pl?sta=KORH Might want to bring a sweatshirt to the games Saturday....

Probably don't get out of 50's there tomorrow. Maybe luck out on Sunday and get into the mid 60's.

Not happening on Saturday. Mid 60's. Cold 850's and mostly cloudy by early afternoon. Sunday I'd go 70-75 for that location.

And that weak wave on Saturday--and that the mesos would key in on this sticking around--was a big concern I had going several days back. Looks like southern sections of the sub forum will be fighting mostly cloudy to overcast skies tomorrow afternoon. And the rest of us try to thread the needle, while still being well BN. Then the best weather will be North on Sunday (ex Maine) as a backdoor pushes into SNE and the northern mid Atlantic and slows, allowing onshore flow off the cold Atlantic to rule the day. Looks nasty for coastal SNE, and especially the islands south of the cape.

Don't like our chances this weekend for nice weather. Looks like risk is def in favor of unsettled. Saturday best day? Sunday and Monday have several shortwaves passing near by to our south and the globals are probably underestimating the qpf/clouds associated with these. And then we also want to hope that none of these waves amplifies more than current guidance. Teleconnections also favor unsettled and BN for this weekend...

I'm also noticing a subtle trend to weaken the influence of that ULL over the Great Lakes and have that energy phase in sooner. I'm thinking this system has a better chance of maturing much earlier near the Ohio river valley and cutting off long before it gets here, and sliding ENE kinda like a further southeast/weaker version of the storm we just experienced...But that also means we stay on the cold side of this one, and suffer through one or two cold and wet days of nasty weather. The current depiction seems too "winter-esque" to me. I think the May sun is going to do its work in eroding that block and allowing more UL height rises as the shortwave traverses the plains...

Well looks like a forgone conclusion that the first severe weather outbreak across the SE US is this Thurs/Fri. Looks downright nasty. Euro is a beast. EPS and GEFS on board for a GOM to Great Lakes cutter.

Something I've noticed is if you want to avoid the undesirable impacts of a BD up here in spring, push it well south/southwest, that way the low level easterly flow is more nuanced and you have Surface HP overhead. Even with a CP air mass the sun can then do its work, and the lack of wind further improves the sensible weather conditions. In sum if ACY is socked in clouds with strong E/NE winds, like it is today, chances are we salvage a nice day.

I'll take both. More threading the needle...partly to mostly sunny upper 50's to low 60's. We take.

Good post Tip. I agree. I was even thinking that to get a *rough* back of the envelope idea as to how this may impact sensible weather, perhaps one could shift a given coastal location south X miles to make up for the 4F temperature differential in SST. For example 4F SST increase would be like shifting Portland ME, to cape cod, or Boston to Sandy Hook NJ.

That's a heat map for property tax rates.

I'm not implying that at all. We could see backdooring events weaken in magnitude and duration however...

Without trying to spark a huge climate change debate, I am beginning to think we are at a point where we need to start thinking about these trends and how it may already be influencing our climate. The gulf of ME is the fastest warming major body of water on the planet. As such, historical analogs may be losing some utililty.

This whole week is looking like a huge victory considering what guidance was depicting for this time period last week. GEFS and EPS wants to even give most of NNE a sunny weekend and slightly AN temps.

True. If we can get some sunshine early afternoon tomorrow, we're going to squeeze in another nice day. I like the chances of near 60 up to CON.

Yea if this was what to expect with BD's none of us would ever complain. It's nice out; can even get by without a jacket in the sun.

No it isn't. The only day with predominately NE flow is today. Midday tomorrow we flip to more southerly. Wouldn't be surprised if we all end AN both days. 850 warms up nicely tomorrow so once the sun pops we are in good shape.

I know many complain about the flipping back and forth this time of the year but I think those who are looking for an end to prolonged backdooring periods with 40's and misery mist should always welcome the torch we saw the first half of this month. In my opinion the significant and broad damage inflicted upon the snowpack throughout the region will really help to reduce back door CAD going forward as it tilts the feedbacks in favor of the the mid to late April sun.

Don't misquote me. Several days ago I said, "No severe tstorms; isolated strong maybe." I stand by it.