jbenedet

Yea timing was poor in both directions. Precip moved in after sunset last night but 850-925 was the main problem. Now 850-925 cool enough for snow, but best snows move in with crap airmass in early afternoon. A lot of 32.5 - 34.0 snow to fall which doesn't stack well without rates; and a 990 mb low doesn't get me excited about the rate potential.

I just came back from a trip out to the Berks - Lee, Great Barrington area. Saw 24 hours of light to mod snow amount to less than an inch. Been a similar story back in Dover. Interior or not, it's BL temps have been a major problem throughout SNE. People in this area are not used to being laser focused on BL temps. Growing up on LI you lived and died by it for snow total accums. This year in SNE tracking BL temps >> tracking radar. The former has been the problem, while the latter has been outperforming.

I mean…very marginally. But you are going to lose a lot in terms of poor ratios vs those clown maps.

Common theme this year, in SNE and my hood is that when 850 is no Longer a problem; the BL is. There is no cold on the back side of this. Period. It’ll flip back to snow, and most will see quite a bit falling, but a lot of it gonna go down as white rain. 1) Sell the clowns. 2)Hedge with 5:1 in the colder spots. 3)Don’t believe it until you see it at the stake everywhere else

Yea that was the warmest run yet. Looks like a lot of liquid here. Shocker. Somewhere around DAW—>Hookset going to get all frozen on those caked trees though. Heavy wet snow/ice, throughout right where that 850 0c line makes its furthest progress north. Outages no doubt. They can keep it.

Freezing drizzle. If this stays frozen, setting up for a serious cluster with the way the trees are caked with snow from 3 days ago. There’s a large swath from PSM-DAW, southwest down to just north of ORH that have trees full of wet snow; and those same areas looking at ice/very wet snow. Yikes.

We’ve seen a lot of long duration events this season and this one also fits the bill with all the UL energy hanging back. So the Friday story is real but will probably be more mood-influencing than of substance with rates/temps that don’t allow it to stack up. Steady-state, “it’s beautiful/nice to see” vs I added another 3”. Type snow. The latter confined to higher elevations.

There’s also a needle thread option in areas in interior MA, that cold tuck well. Looks like the first wave of precip is out ahead of the warmest push at 850. There is “sweet spot” potential where surface is 32ish. Would see mostly snow, as 850 doesn’t warm >0C until it’s moving out/ending. Lose about 1/4 precip to sleet/ice at end. There’s a lull, and then Friday morning, part 2 all levels support…

Pretty surprised by the lack of cold in western and CNE. Was wrong about that. The areas on the margin yesterday now tilted towards much less, right around the pike. The NAM performed well.

It's gonna be a nowcast along that southern edge. We'll have a good idea which way it's gonna break depending on the morning dews in the region. Tough deal given the densely populated areas that fall along it--Boston, the suburbs ORH, etc. But it is what it is.

ARW2 seems within reason for what we might be able to eek out of the NW. The absolute low bar for overnight dews imo. All alone, but what's interesting is the GFS surface dews are colder than the NAM's. The NAM's TD's in Southern Ontario are wayyy too warm vs the rest of guidance which tells me it's too warm in our hood. By like +10F at any given location, in Southern Ontario. The NAM is going to correct colder at the surface into go time, me thinks.

Are the ARW's full of shit? Never really looked at them until now... Useful or useless?

The surface has fully conceded to frozen throughout, once precip rolls in wet-bulb to 31-32. 850 still a hair-splitting battle, N berks vs S berks. 1-3" in the south, lolly 4" most Friday, N berks probably closer to 8"

If you mean Monday, yea, there’s a chance. Sure. But I think odds favor strongly against.

Don’t get it twisted. That is a fantastic look. And it’s quite different than the crap maps you and Crooklyn been passin’ around all season. I’m saying we cut on Monday and I’ll reassess and see that H5 maps still look like this at day 5. If so, weenies rejoice.

You have to smell the taint with this one, to get the best totals. The best lift in the IVT is following that marginal line. Those who marginally cash in on the first push will capitalize best on IVT.

I think this is a nowcast on those dewpoints out ORH to NW CT. Wake up to find TD obs 5 degrees colder than progged. Will see. If the 850 low wants to hang on like the NAM, it won't matter in terms of snow accums, just more frozen.

For all the talk of poor antecedent airmass. … Not really. Low level CAD begins begins tonight, on northwest winds, so we get a fresh injection of low 20 dews.

The 6z EPS pops the secondary about 3-6 hours earlier than the 12zNAM. If we take the EPS run verbatim and shift 12zNAM 850 thermals accordingly, the risk is asymmetrically tilted in favor of more snow where 850 is the warm layer, and surface sufficiently cold. Worcester west/North, line for example. Could be talking a few more inches than the clowns advertise. We watch.

Wine.

Crooklynwx selling more snow weenie H5 maps. The snow addicts in SNE can’t resist. This Monday threat looks like shit under the hood. Someone create a Back to brown thread for this shit.

Noted. Yes that area. Cheshire, Florida, Williamston, New ashford.

I'm going with a jackpot in the Berks on this one. North Adams area.

The NAM clearly feeling the cold press in the primary --more than other guidance--but the primary holds on much longer (longitude) than other reliable guidance. Net-Net it's a warmer depiction because SNE skunked at 850. But being that the NAM is alone in this aspect, we sell for now... This is one of those where you have to smell the taint to get the highest totals... Cold tucks are significantly under-performing broadly this season, and I'm selling any of them advertised in the east until further notice. But we have seen them show up with stubbornness in the far interior, so I believe this is can be one of those situations.

For Thurs/Fri, The EPS has been trending positively for a more wintry solution in the marginal zones. Weaker primary, less latitude gain, earlier secondary.