jbenedet
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Everything posted by jbenedet
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This setup has clearly evolved from a persistent cold drain scenario to an antecedent cold shot.
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Except when we're talking about wetbulbing right? LOL I mean, the whole premise of where the boundary sets up is based on how dense the antecedent airmass is...
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It's not even close, region wide.
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NAM is actually a lot warmer on Saturday than previous run.
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The HRRR is OTL on the cold shot this evening. 12z NAM has dews in low 20’s at 21z tonight while HRRR is 6-8F…
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The HRRR has dews in the mid single digits here tonight, by 21z. That’s very suspect… The euro dews at same time frame are in the upper teens. Currently 49/26…
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Saturday trended colder but the warmth is winning now Sunday to Monday. Better cold push tonight but there isn’t a secondary cold push on Sunday so even north of the surface boundary subtly/slowly starts to warm… Instead of a prolonged wintry event it’s become just Saturday, excluding Winne north…
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NAM has high in the 50's here tomorrow...
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NAM will come in warmer again, at least for friday into saturday
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Yea I just saw the dews in Ontario and northern Maine. Where the winds are more northerly definitely cold to tap; I guess my point is regarding seacoast NH - I’m seeing more of an easterly wind.
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Warmth is pushing to win eventually here in eastern CNE and SNE but it’s not until late Sunday into Monday. Losing the long wave ridging out west is allowing for the incoming shortwave to deepen more over the plains and pump the WAR.
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I’m still wondering where these mid 30’s temps are coming from in seacoast NH with every piece of guidance cooked just above the surface. The GOM is broadly in the low 40’s and winds are predominantly with a significant easterly component so no answer there either.
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I believe somewhere in that 36-39” range but if I had to guess I’m right around 39.
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Don’t have exact but I believe a hair below 40”
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What a short winter. A coating through December, a dusting through March.
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Exactly.
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Yea when it's 100+ hrs out. All day. It's not even really a back door, with the surface anoms to the north, basically normal. The question is if we warm sector or not. Not backdoor... No one is selling 70+ in Dover at this point. But I do think 60+ is a better bet than sub 40 and misery mist.
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Already by 18z Saturday you have all of the deep cold bottled up towards Hudson bay Canada. This is a battle that the warmth can win for most of us...
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GFS coldest but the GEFS now looks a lot warmer than the EPS/Euro…
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GEFS vs EPS for this weekend. GEFS showing +NAO and which will be sending canadian cold east to labrador/Newfoundland. It's not fully there on guidance yet, but it's getting there. EPS showing -NAO and CAD into new england. No door, vs back door, respectively. The teles support the GEFS look not the EPS... I'm with the GEFS.
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It is, but the pattern for this weekend couldn't be anything less favorable for a back door. There isn't meridional flow out of canada - it's very progressive West to East. I'm feeling good in seacoast NH - but as always someone will get screwed, probably Winne-->north where it gets questionable...
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I don’t see the depression, either in GEFS or teles. Torch incoming.
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Downslope for the win tomorrow. Modeled 30’s will come in about average highs for tomorrow in seacoast NH
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2025 Lawns & Gardens Thread. Making Lawns Great Again
jbenedet replied to Damage In Tolland's topic in New England
Does it do well in 6-8 hrs direct sun? -
Airmasses skunked. The surface was completely unworkable. You needed it to tear open the mid levels; but nothing showed that. Something really dynamic. 970’s in the western GOM and then maybe you get some of what the GFS was showing at ~120hrs.
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