jbenedet

Downsloped to mid 70’s. Zero complaints. Beautiful. Will be near 80 today.

It’s a very low bar but with this line coming through in 30 min should finish as the wettest day of the summer so far.

No severe but a great drink. Wettest week in a month confirmed. Grass looking its best since early may

I’m getting ready for severe. Those cells popping in ASH area are strengthening and are immediately preceded by a period of limited clouds, during peak ISR. Primed.

I’d start packing seeing that. Wayy too early for my mindset.

The grass seed I put down less than a week ago already coming up. Much better results than my spring seeding so far…

If I score measurable precip today and with the rain coming Friday, this week will be the wettest in a month. Maybe longer. To be sure, it’s not much at all - talking less than 0.75” in aggregate —but that’s how dry it’s been… Definitely changes too in terms of cloud cover. Much less full sun, even on the fair weather days.

Watering is easier in late season plantings than early season. The lower sun angle does a less drying out and keeps soil temps more conducive than late May and def into early June. That being said, you do need the discipline to water daily in drought conditions like we’re experiencing. Same discipline but better results is my take.

Ooof. Thinking dormancy on 8/24 is brutal. Not sure how you guys deal with that… I have many flowers that just started blooming again with the summer heat stress behind. Moving now to the second peak for garden scapes after summer heat stress and before first frost. The drought though is keeping the water bill up but at least it’s without the high energy bills. With how beautiful and AN our falls have been dormancy isn’t on my mind until mid November.

Some leaves falling off the trees in the breezier conditions. Too dry. Probably too late to save a good fall foliage display in SE NH.

Went to wentworth greenhouse in Rollinsford to pick up some JG Heat and drought mix to reseed the lawn. Found out they carry everything except that. Spoke to them directly about it and they said the brown areas would come back; it’s just stressed. I said no, it’s BARE after thatching. What I need is a mix that won’t get scorched. I dunno what this buyer is doing but my areas most in need of reseeding are the hottest patches with most direct sun. That also should be the case for most. I get over 8 hours of direct sun in these parts even in August. JG heat and drought is the only seed rated to withstand 100F. People need to realize that in prolonged direct sun, at peak diurnal ISR, unshaded areas in your lawn can get near these temps. That’s what the scorching is telling you… Also, guy, it’s getting warmer here… Anyway I went to a local competitor and reseeded with what I needed to be ready for next years onslaught of 90+ clear weather days…

I’m more concerned about sun angle and weed competition. Generally I say the decision/timing depends on your specific lawn conditions. From that standpoint the number of weeds I’m seeing pop up is down tremendously from a month ago. This is with no treatment; just pulling by root. Also seeing a spring green up in the areas that were really stressed a few weeks ago. I’m well passed the worst of lawn stress season, is my take… Likely will reseed this weekend.

What is this thing?

Crab grass war finally over and won. Time to reseed the bare spots—-going primarily Texas bluegrass in these patches…

The ridge developing around Nova Scotia is the most interesting piece. The "giant" gyre is also sliding east and north with time... It's the feature of a developing -NAO...

The GEFS and EPS are finally starting to digest a -NAO developing as Erin makes closest pass to CONUS. This is best seen in the increase in number of individual members slowing down and well west of the mean. Surface HP also now shown building in SE Canada. I am still watching for interest in how this all unfolds, because I do think the simple wide right recurve is amiss in this regard—it doesn’t fit the developing pattern.

This is evolving in a way that the follow up shortwave over the Midwest around hr 144 will be the key interaction influencing the recurve.

Eastern Canada trend - trough fadin’

Great post^ I'm just gonna put this one here, because that mean track is being pretty well followed per the latest NHC cone.... We watch.

REALLY dry air, is also REALLY dense air...And that's also observed in a data sparse region so we might want to take the over on how strong that ridge is... Better bet due to both influences--weaker TC, and stronger high--you want to hedge strongly in favor of a track further west and south at least to the bahamas...

Seeing the NAO is shifting from postive to deeply negative over the next 7 days. Looks like trending towards an east-based -NAO... That will shake the forecast track up for sure...

Not exactly... It's still a long shot but.... What you do need is for the longwave trough in eastern Canada to weaken...That's the "block" as it pertains to all of the east coast... On the euro AI all trends are in the right direction...weaker trough in eastern canada, stronger western atlantic ridge, and deeper shortwave over the Midwest.

If you have the 6z EPS lat/long (TC position) @ hr 144, but 6z GEFS ULL intensity over eastern canada @ hr 144, that is a very interesting final solution...

I believe the trend is to overall deamplify the players over the CONUS—the PNA ridge and the gyre over Eastern Canada. The teleconnections across the board are trending to neutral over the next 10 days. It’s spectacularly boring on that front. We’re pretty much left with just the background climate. With that, this will be a nice test case to see how much easterly flow we can develop without a deep trough over eastern US; i.e. how much of our background climate has actually changed as it relates to the higher heights regularly observed over the western Atlantic.

Just an observation - but looking at this again, it's almost as though the entirety of the synoptic scale flow over NA subtly moving east to west. Pretty cool.