Chris78

55 minutes ago, RickinBaltimore said:

Burnes, Bradish and GrayRod as your top 3? I'll take that.

Means is no slouch either....

3 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

might have missed my snow/seed window.  I wanted to throw it down before the last snow we had let the snow melt push it down....thought eh we will have a lot more snow cover days...will we?  looking at the GEFS this morning h5 looks good...2m temp anomaly doesn't

It's takes till about the 15th to get the 2M temps to average/ below average. 

850s look good from the 15th on ward.

Patience still needed for a couple more weeks. Hopefully in another week we can be tracking discrete threats by then.

Love the trade. Didn't have to give up any of there top prospects.

What Chicago wanted for Cease was outrageous. 

Basically 4 of the top 100 prospects in all of Baseball.

I look at it as self sabotage for the GM of the whitesox

5 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

I think there are 2 camps (at least.).  Getting snow seems like a real good bet but if we only get 6-10" total snow, there are going to be some going on the war path.  

I average almost 30" a season. More in a Nino. You should be about the same. 

If we get another 6 to 10 that is going to put me around 20 for the season.

That's a he'll of alot better than last year lol but still a d/ d- in my book.

We need to make our hay in nino's. Next winter will probably be a disaster honestly. 

I loved the week we had a couple weeks ago of deep winter. But the other 7 weeks of winter hasn't been good.

I won't go on a war path lol but if I end the season around 20" I would consider it a disappointment. 

27 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

That is a worrisome as depicted.   Cutter Miller B.  Only show on the docket though unless Feb 5th slings back west in to us.  GFS has it masking it to New England. 

We are going to have to get through a couple cutters most likely in the 10th - 15th range before we get to the promise land.

(Hopefully) 

I said yesterday in the MA forum if we can't get snow with the looks on the ensembles for the back half of February it's time to find another hobby lol

1 minute ago, Ji said:

pretty scary thought---because if we dont see a big snow or two......this hobby is pretty much done

Yep time to take up crocheting or something if we can't snow in that look.

8 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

The snow means are horrible the next 15 days on all the ensembles.  I guess we need "wave breaks" and cooling for our last gasp of winter.  Hope to see an uptick by next weekend.  WB 12Z EPS.

I would expect them to look horrible till the 15th. The 15th is when things should get going.

What I really like about the ensembles is that it doesn't take long for us to get cold once we get into the pattern change. Seems like it took several weeks in Late December into January to finally get temps right. This happens pretty quickly after the pattern reshuffle and we get the PNA ridge to go up. 

3 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

I think in two weeks we would take a Miller Z if it means a snow storm.  
I am not panicked but cautiously optimistic that the last 4-5 weeks (mid February to mid March) of the winter season will deliver.   
The 3rd week of January's well forecasted H5 pattern gave me 10 inches;  if I get another 10 plus inches it will be a "B" winter for me.  If we get a wind whipped foot or more storm out of the upcoming pattern, winter 23-24 will get an "A" from me.

I'll move this here to Banter to not tie up the long range thread. 

Everyone has there own idea of what their looking for in winter but I do hope we get more snow than 10 " out of this up coming pattern.

I'm at 12" currently. My average is almost 30" and more than that in a Nino.

If I get 10 more I would grade on a curve because it is a Nino. I would give it a c at best maybe even a D. I need  to get atleast to my average to call it a B.

I need another 18" just to get to average.

So far this winter has been a D/F for me. 1 solid week of winter and 7 weeks of a continuation of the last few years.

5 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Nice to see a gfs fantasy range hit at the start of our window

A little warm with the overrunning but looks like an overrunning event that transitions to a coastal low with the h5 pass.

Only 14 days away. 

Just now, NorthArlington101 said:

We’ve even tracking discrete threats! We’ve had 2 storm threads made this past week

6 minutes ago, Ji said:

The snow mean really went up with this latest run. It was 8 on Thursday. Today 11

If this is to be believed we should be tracking discrete threats in about  7 days or so.

3 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

WB 12Z GEFS, our one in 30 chance....

I see maybe 8 to 10 hits to the south which tells me if we have a north Trend it may be cold enough to snow up our way..... 

41 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

If this panel does not scream snow, I am not sure what else we could hope for (snark).  When the high itself has lots 850's, that is worrisome.  LOL. 

The entire set up is wonky. I would suspect though if the storm does come north there would be a stripe of snow on the North and West side. 

With Models always underestimating heights at range my guess is this storm comes north 

Might be rain but who knows ......

Wtf is Detroit doing

Head scratcher why Detroit didn't kick the FG there. 4 and 3 a little different than 4 and inches

3 minutes ago, nj2va said:

It wasn’t rigged. The Ravens lost. Chiefs played a better game. 

Yep. Coaching alot to blame. Also Lamar wasn't on tonight. Over threw alot of receivers on deep passes.

Detroit shitting the bed.

Wow. What an awful drop there.

6 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

18z gfs - similar sfc map for feb 4-6, but big changes on h5. Large scale trends are yet to come

I thought so too. I thought it was going to come further north

Mahomes is just so damn good. 

Too many mistakes today by the Ravens

Just now, stormtracker said:

I was never a swifty.  This makes me dislike her even more.

She's alright but damn they wear her out. It's annoying

2 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

I'm so tired of her

So tired of them showing her in her suite.

We're heading towards a nice pattern. My only concern is how long does it take to get temps right? 

If it's a week them were at 2/20. If it takes longer than a week then well......

@nj2va 

Skied wisp last night.

I thought it was great. Snow was getting a little thin in spots but love the length of the trails. I've only ever skied at  liberty and whitetail and there much smaller in size overall. 

Going today as well. Hopefully the rain holds off till tonight. 

4 minutes ago, aldie 22 said:

I've spent the better part of the last 30 years regulating my emotions...don't get too high or too low that way things that disappoint don't bring me down much while still being able to enjoy the good times. This practice will serve me well with this potential upcoming pattern. You can definitely already tell the ones who will crash and burn if it fails to deliver. Epic is going to happen regardless of the patterns results lol 

Imagine this place if we're entering March with an additional .00 inches of snow lol.