Chris78

2 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Wouldn't it be weird though for this pattern to just show up for 1-month all of a sudden?

Hasn't the seasonals been showing this look for February for months and months now?

7 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

30 days. 

If we don't get snow with that look it's time to find another hobby!

73 in Hagerstown earlier. 55 in deep creek. Just arrived.

5 minutes ago, pazzo83 said:

Imagine Boxing Day but 10x worse.

I remember the sun being out in the middle of the 1 to 2 ft forecast.

Just now, WinterWxLuvr said:

GFS says this is still in play

Dream team. GFS/NAM

22 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

Agree. Droolworthy. If this H5 anomaly map verifies for a full month, and we don't get a HECS - or at minimum - a top 10 KU, I would be disappointed. Very disappointed.

 That's an H5 map you rarely see. 

3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

@Stormchaserchuck1 this is what it looks like on members that have the pattern. The mean is smoothed by outliers that don’t agree. 

My God that's a sweet look. Wow!

HECS or bust. 

1 minute ago, peribonca said:

So that's below climo... Sweet

I'll take the control and call it a winter on March 10th.

Just now, peribonca said:

So that's below climo... Sweet

Heading in the right direction!

22 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

WB latest EPS extended snow mean

Better!

42 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

I saw pages commenting on the EURO extended control snow maps, here is the latest....WB

What's the mean look like? Still displaced to the north?

35 minutes ago, CAPE said:

I may have to give ignore a go. Never thought I would, but I have a tendency to read/reply to posts I should just bypass.

I hope your not done! We need your analysis in here.

When need your level headiness in here lol.

21 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Something continues to be a recurring theme, great looking pattern, lackluster snow output. Yesterday’s euro control was the best example yet. 
This 30 day mean pattern 

Still put the axis of snow north of us 

with that pattern we should be more worried about suppression. It’s been doing this a lot. Suggesting the snow will be displaced north of where I expect based on the pattern. Not saying I buy it. Long range snow means aren’t often great tools. Just flagging this in case it does happen to note the models keep showing it. 

I'm going to post this here to not derail the long range thread.

My average is almost 30". Even more in a Nino. 

I'm at 12" so far. Realistically probably still going to be at that number entering February.  2/3rds of winter gone.

The past 7 days have been great but certainly this winter hadn't been what I think alot of folks were expecting including myself.

I have alot of ground to make up in 4 or 5 weeks just to get to average. Can it happen?  Sure . Will it? Who knows? 

My wag is we get a moderate storm and a couple small ones and I end up in the 20 to 25 range. 

Thats Ok and a he'll of alot better than last year but overall underwhelming and a little disappointing considering what we average in a Nino.

Any snow is good snow but we really need to make our hay in these type of winters. Next winter looks like a disaster from a overall look.....

1 hour ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

It certainly seems that the train wreck two weeks ahead has been embellished a bit.

As you've been saying don't sleep on Sunday. Especially for The western and Northern crews. 

Could be a rain to snow scenario if things break right for our areas.

Bone headed doing a fake punt there

I wouldn't sleep on next Sunday 

Went skiing last night at Liberty. 

Cold. Very cold. Very windy. Did 4 hours of night skiing. That's about all the kids and I could handle 

36 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

We were going there for lunch but turned around when the police were directing us to the far parking area.  

I was able to get a closer parking spot with so many people leaving. The lines for the lifts are 20 minute wait

12 minutes ago, peribonca said:

Doesn't seem like a bad look at peak climo.

Too bad it's shorts weather lol.

56 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

Ski Liberty is crazy.  People lined up around the corner to park.

I hope it dies out by tonight. I'm going night sking.

12/11- 1"

1/6 - 4"

1/15-16 - 3.25"

1/19 - 4"

Season total 12.25"

1 minute ago, Bubbler86 said:

A week or two I have no issue with.  Punting into Mid-February on Jan 19th is just not my style (when I referenced some posts on the MA.)    That long of a punt sounds like something the Dallas Cowboys would draw up.    But after this Monday I think we are on the sidelines for cold for 7-10 days.     Let's enjoy the heating bill break :-) 

 

 

I'm thinking by the second week in February we're back in business. 

7 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

See my last post to Mitch.  Why is it that when the pattern looks great 3 weeks out everyone (except someone in Marysville LOL)  is cautious but when it sucks it is a done deal and always right.  Maybe it will be sort of in between :-).  I can quote you posts from 24-48 hours ago that sounded positive about early Feb.  Just not looking great today. 

We can definitely sneak into something. He'll the GFS has been hinting at next weekend for a few days now.

It's just alot tougher when the overall pattern looks like it does for the next week or 2. 

We're just gearing up for our HECS the last 2 weeks in February . 

3 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

I did not even see that when I put my foot down above.  I am just not punting 4 weeks.  That is a recipe for having to back track in mid winter. 

 

Psu isn't wrong though. The pattern sucks for the next few weeks.

Sure we could steal something. It is prime climo.

I would say Ctp would have alot better chance of stealing one than most of Lwx over the next few weeks.

Will those streamers up in PA make it down here?