Chris78

4 minutes ago, Heisy said:

Yes because it’s separating the N/S and main shortwave. Until one camp caves it’s hard to take any run serious. GFS is usually the one that does the caving so I’d lean euro evolution personally.


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Not sure which is better for us. The Euro would be colder but we risk it not coming north enough. 

4 minutes ago, Heisy said:

18z control improved on 12z. Less compressed flow. Has the same evolution (different than GFS camp)

This looks like it was gonna work…




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Looks like maybe 12 hours or so later than GFS?

2 minutes ago, Interstate said:

I thought threads were for real chances. I mean we are over a week away. 

We need enough time to shut down this one and start a new one lol

6 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

They are pretty crazy. Better if we got the pattern earlier, but better late than never. Just better snow and not just get cold and dry. That would stink.

Yep. It's a shame things didn't start to reshuffle 2 to 3 weeks earlier so we could of had all of February and the first 2 weeks of March to cash in but it is what it is. Atleast in PA big storms can happen well into March. Further south it gets alot tougher after the first week of the month.

Weeklies were just posted in the MA thread. If you want snow chances to the end of March you'll like  them.

37 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

The WB EPS control run is horrible from last night.

I like the one you posted last week that showed 40" better.

Just now, Bubbler86 said:

I just the panels.  Some real big hits on about 25% of the members. 

Yes. I was a little surprised how many big hits there was. Looks like most are a Monday night into Daytime Tuesday deal.

Definitely a thread the needle type deal. The air mass is trash leading in.

1 minute ago, Bubbler86 said:

That is a good call. That is also a big factor in its slower speed as depicted. 

 

 

Eps with alot of Snowy solutions for next week.

Best run in a while in regards to a specific threat

Any concerns with the ridge showing up in the great lakes towards the end of the GEFS run?  Temps are pretty much normal by day 16th on GEFS which might be problematic as we get to the end of February  

29 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

And look what's showing up again at the end of the Gfs run. 4th in a row.

I'm starting to grow inpatient lol but with this look we have to get something I would think at some point between Feb 15 and March 15. That's a pretty classic look for us.

1 hour ago, Ji said:

If we just get to climo..winter is a disaster

I kind of agree with you here. This is our winter to make our hay.......

Although I would call it a disappointment rather than disaster lol

Just now, Bubbler86 said:

I am not punting snow chances but greatest pattern in "x" years is still up for debate.  

I think we snow but will it be an epic period?  Not sure about that.

4 minutes ago, Chris78 said:

And honestly I'm tired of looking at H5 maps lol

I want to look at maps where people actually live lol

5 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

Cold is step 1.  Until I see it, the gas stays in the can.

And honestly I'm tired of looking at H5 maps lol

2 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

I see great blocking up top, an undercutting STJ & a 50/50 low.

I am not concerned in the least with Super week ridging showing in the upper Midwest on day 16,

Also, yesterday the ensembles tried to do the same thing as what you showed, but it was gone by 12z today across all ensembles by day 16.

I love your optimism. 

I'm starting to have some reservations though  around the upcoming pattern.

Bob Chill in the MA thread has been very Meh on the period coming up. I put alot of stock into what he says. Basically he's said this winter has showed its hand. Some winters want to snow and other don't. It's been a real battle to get snow this winter.

Temps don't seem that cold on the ensembles. 

Now I hope I'm wrong and we all get shallacked. 

Just now, mitchnick said:

I warned about that today when the Geps was showing a very strong - Nao that we risked a full latitude block what is also shown on the operational 18z run. 

It's just not going to be as simple as the weeklues suggest. Can't say it enough imho.

Yea. I felt better a week ago. 2m temps aren't that cold at the end of the gefs.

As we get to the end of the month we need decent - anomalies for snow. Atleast a long the M/ D.

Look what's starting to happen in the mid west at the end of the GEFS lol.

10 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

WB 18Z GFS fantasy range digital snow has appeared!!! 

Huge rates lol. Snows for 30 hours. 

1 minute ago, brooklynwx99 said:

you can see the wave this far out, kinda nuts. trough amps up as the block rots

Wow. That's crazy for 20 days out!

Doug K. Forecast is really going to come down to these next 4 weeks or so. He went big on his winter snowfall forecast.

Make or break for him.

Of course he canceled last winter with his snow fall forecast and was right. Let's hope he's right about  this year.

I believe he has my area in the 38 to 50 range so I've got some work to do to get there.

If chucks in I'm in lol

30 minutes ago, North Balti Zen said:

Trading for guys in their walk year like Burnes and going after a WS title is what big boy franchises do. And if he walks after this year, which he probably will given Boras as his agent, given the light prospect haul sent for him, it is 100% the right thing to do. The first actual "we are going for it" move. Love it. 

Love the move.

Back in 14 when they traded Eduardo Rodriguez for Andrew Miller I loved that move also. They had a great team in 14 and went for it all.  They had a legit shot that year but ran into a red hot Royals team in the ALCS.

How Long had it been since you could say the Os were 1 player away from having a legit chance to win it all.

And the best thing about the trade is they didn't have to give up any of there top 5 prospects. Their Farm is still loaded.

7 hours ago, ravensrule said:

Unfortunately he is a free agent after this year. But he is a true ace and a top 10 pitcher in baseball. I hope we can resign him, if not a one year rental still gives us a legit shot at a WS ring this year. Amazing trade. 

And they didn't have to give up a ton. Where was Ortiz going to play? Lol.

Gunner, Holiday has him blocked  for years to come.

Ortiz is probably the happiest person involved in this trade lol.

Sounds like he is going to get a ton of playing time at the MLB level this year with the brew crew.

55 minutes ago, RickinBaltimore said:

Burnes, Bradish and GrayRod as your top 3? I'll take that.

Means is no slouch either....

3 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

might have missed my snow/seed window.  I wanted to throw it down before the last snow we had let the snow melt push it down....thought eh we will have a lot more snow cover days...will we?  looking at the GEFS this morning h5 looks good...2m temp anomaly doesn't

It's takes till about the 15th to get the 2M temps to average/ below average. 

850s look good from the 15th on ward.

Patience still needed for a couple more weeks. Hopefully in another week we can be tracking discrete threats by then.