Chris78

Looks like 3.75" here in Smithsburg. A few miles from the M/D.

This looked impossible 48 hours ago.

6 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

Just about done here.  About 3.3" right now so probably going to top at 3.4 or 3.5.      Rates reduced to very light snow. 

I'm just under 3.5. 

Flake Size increase over the last 5 minutes. Hoping to make it to 4" . Looks like maybe another hour to accumulate?

1 minute ago, Bubbler86 said:

Guess they changed over much sooner than we did.  We had a really late change...even later than Lanco. 

I'm sure they had a 2 hour head start above 1500 ft

Just now, DDweatherman said:

@Chris78 I measured multiple locations too, I’ll be damned. 

Nice!

The mesos had your area in the 6"+ range last night and my area in the 3 to 5 range. 

Looks like they did a pretty good job. Atleast in our areas.

1 minute ago, Bubbler86 said:

We are near 3" here now.  Not sure I make 4 but looks fantastic outside. 

Seeing reports of 6" + in the higher elevations close to us.

20 minutes ago, DDweatherman said:

Well you know its always something, not a cold enough airmass before, moving too fast, etc. Just part of the "hobby"? Haha

What are you up to now? I just measures 3" on the west side of the Catoctins 

7 minutes ago, DarkSharkWX said:

impressive

I believe it. That's about 1500 ft in elevation. I'm in Smithsburg  at about 750' .

Just measured 3"

6 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

That band is legit. 

Yes it is. When it was over Washington County it was real rippage probably close to 2" per hour rates.  Even behind that band it's moderate snow and still piling up nicely. Places to the East should have several more hours of snow when you flip.

Heavy snow 32 degrees in Smithsburg. Estimating maybe a little less than an inch so far. 

Stickage on everything including roads

7 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

The main difference from earlier is precip amounts, which truthfully are probably very difficult to nail down. People talk about warm ground and yes we had a couple of warm days but we also had about 3-4 straight days last week in the upper teens.

Yes definitely less precip. Compare the latest run with the 18z. Big drop off with qpf

2 minutes ago, Ji said:

And that can be trusted?

No. That's why I said if that happens. But we've already had this happen multiple times over the couple years so who knows.

7 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

Models lost the nao basically

Shit. Just checked all 3 ensembles and all show what looks to be a full latitude ridge connecting up into the Nao domain towards the end of February. If that happens I guess it's definitely ovah.

Just now, Scraff said:

LOLz. My 19 year old daughter who doesn’t drink snuck that in. 

That's it. Kick her out

2 hours ago, Scraff said:

Let’s go Chiefs! Fuck SF!! And now it’s the Super Bowl Fridge Index and it’s at an all time high today. Means nothing for snow apparently though. 

Your slipping. How did that sprite slip in there lol.

10 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

WB 18Z GFS, congrats New England, epic period for them...

Lol. We suck. 

Seriously  though the temps on the gfs later on in runs  has been pretty crappy for a while now. 

Kind of feeling like we may be just about done with winter. 

5 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said:

If we somehow bring this one back then the second thread rule actually broke the simulation 

If I drive 20 Miles se theres nothing. 20 miles nw there's a foot.  Wow

30 minutes ago, JenkinsJinkies said:

So is it safe to say that this year being AN for the metros is off the table?

They have a chance.  For northern areas that shipped has probably sailed.

If winter ends now it's an F- in my book.

About 40% for my average seasonal snow fall. And worse than that in an nino.

basically 1 week of winter lol.

Just now, psuhoffman said:

Seems pretty simple 

What's your thoughts on PD weekend? Looks like precip may come further north now. What do we need to see happen so it's cold enough other than a miracle lol.

Pretty good track on the GEFS for PD weekend. Just pray temps are cold enough.

2 minutes ago, Scarlet Pimpernel said:

Wasn't that NS energy originally what suppressed the hell out of the potential PD event in the first place?  And now it's farther west.

Get that bowling ball up in Canada a little East and it might be a little colder.

Just now, Terpeast said:

Lots of cold air lurking nearby on that run. I don’t think this will be a complete rainstorm

I don't think the next few weeks are going to be simple SS waves coming a cross. Alot of NS waves passing to the north. I think if that Northern stream would of gotten out of the way a little quicker and allowed the colder air to come east it could of been a snowier solution.  But maybe it would of shunted everything east. Who knows but it won't matter in 6 hours as it will look different. 

1 minute ago, yoda said:

12z CMC is garbage for Presidents Day after 00z showed a C VA into N NC snowstorm

General idea though as 00z

Storm is still there just weaker and souther.

4 minutes ago, yoda said:

12z GFS keeps up that nice Miller A rainstorm for Presidents Day 

Perfect track Miller A rainstorm lol.

It is really close though. Mid 30s Sunday afternoon and 850s around the PA border

1 hour ago, Terpeast said:

If I think that this is going be north of us, do you not want me to say it? Just… be silent?

I’m sorry but that’s not how I roll. If I think it, I’m gonna say it. Just be grateful that I’m not going to repeat it every 5 minutes like some others do

And I had  just replied to you with a little bit of sarcastic humor about looking forward to our Pd 3 fail lol.

Getting a little chippy in here. 

We need snow stat