winterwx21

I mentioned on friday night that this had my attention because GGEM was showing it, and of course Walt has been all over it. But many people are going to be surprised if this happens because very have been talking about it. March of course is a crazy month where snowstorms can sneak up on you at the last minute, although GGEM would certainly deserve a lot of credit for advertising this pretty early. Have to take it seriously now that NAM is showing it too. Obviously it would be difficult to accumulate on pavement after warm temps and with borderline temps during the storm, but it certainly could end up being like the February snow event where we got a few inches on colder surfaces.

NAM is giving southern NJ a few inches of snow wednesday, but it doesn't quite make it up here. GGEM does get it up here, but it's warmer now so you have to go northwest to see most of the snow accumulations. Looks as if wednesday is still worth keeping an eye on. It made it to 69 here today. Looking for mid 70s tomorrow.

GGEM still showing a snow event wednesday. Since this is the only model showing it, we'd have to say there's only a very slight chance of it happening. But bluewave has talked about how much better GGEM has performed since the upgrade. It has become a good model, so we can't completely discount this possibility. We have to keep an eye on wednesday.

It's 40 degrees here right now. So much for today being a very cold day. I know it's still a little below normal, but a far cry from the very cold blast that was advertised for today. For days the forecast said it would struggle to get to freezing today, but the sun is much stronger this time of year. Makes it much more difficult to have a very cold afternoon. You can always count on the high temp going well above forecast anytime the sun is out.

There's no sign of cold for the first half of the month, unless you want to consider a couple days (this coming thursday and friday) in the low-mid 40s cold. We warm up to 60 next weekend. This is looking like a mild month unless we have a dramatic turnaround in the 2nd half of the month.

The temp has spiked to 46 here now. As usual temps going higher than forecast when the sun comes out.

44 degrees now. The ice is history.

Yeah it worked out pretty well for our area. Not cold enough for the freezing rain to cause very serious problems, but a beautiful scene with the trees coated with ice. I know most people don't want ice, but it's one of nature's most beautiful scenes.

NWS has a high temp of 44 for my area tomorrow. Temps are going to spike pretty good tomorrow afternoon when the sun comes out. Should be plenty of mid 40s. So yeah, anything we get will melt quickly.

Yeah it was impressive how the HRRR nailed the February snow event 48 hours in advance, when so many other models were showing little to nothing.

Still looks as if it keeps NYC all frozen for the main part of the event. Several hours of sleet and then several hours of freezing rain. Then a little light plain rain at the end.

Yeah it is time consuming looking at all the models.

If not snowier, hopefully it will mean more sleet than freezing rain. Been awhile since we've had a significant amount of sleet here. It would be cool.

We weather enthusiasts are strange people, but there's nothing wrong with being strange.

Now it's 70 here. Absolutely beautiful. Great to be outside with just a t-shirt on.

69 degrees here.

59 degrees here. Beautiful out there.

CMC just came in colder than last night's run. Quite a bit of sleet and freezing rain. The chance of getting snow from this event is fading, but ice is another story. If it happens, hopefully we'll get more sleet than freezing rain.

Yeah, the CMC came in colder than the 12z run. Gives us quite a bit of sleet. Way too early to know what precip types we're gonna have.

Yeah it was a really nice snow squall here too. Complete whiteout conditions for a little while. However it only briefly lightly dusted grassy areas because the temps were so warm. When the sun came out before the squall we shot up to 44 degrees here. We probably would have picked up a quick half inch had the temp been 5 degrees colder. Would've been an awesome squall event had temps been a little colder, but it was still nice to see.

Big difference for you though since you're way to the west. I just hit 44 degrees here. It's not going to be as much of an issue for warmer areas near the coast.

The temp here is up to 43, so very unlikely we will see any accumulation from the snow squall. RGEM changes it over to rain by the time it gets here too, so that's possible. Too bad the temps are not a little bit colder to make this snow squall event more interesting.

Yeah not nearly as good as GFS, but it's an improvement.

12z Euro cuts the storm way to the west, so it's much warmer than GFS and GGEM. Obviously a long way to go.

Now up to 68 here.