winterwx21

2 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

“Absent of some type of major volcanic eruption” 

Right but he didn't completely rule out a 50 inch winter absent of a volcanic eruption. He just said we will have a hard time getting one. He realizes we can get lucky and still pull one off. 

15 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

I’m not denying the winters have been warmer but to say we need volcanic eruptions for 50 inch winter in nyc is ridiculous 

Well bluewave didn't say NYC absolutely will not have another 50 inch winter without a volcanic eruption. He just said we will have a hard time doing it.

I do agree with you though that NYC will probably see another 50 inch winter. With climate change snowstorms will become less frequent (warmer weather and more big rainstorms of course), but a few big blizzards are still likely since we see more big storms. Get lucky with a big blizzard, and NYC can pull off 50 inches in a winter again. 

28 minutes ago, SBUWX23 said:

Not saying I think it's gonna snow. My point is more I don't trust anything coming out of the models right a week out. It still may end up dry or just a little rain. 

Yeah last night's Euro was south with the storm for the 12th. Now it's showing a big cutter. GFS today is way south. Who the heck knows if we're gonna see a storm monday at this point. Way too early. 

Beautiful weekend. It certainly was nice to finally see a lot of sunshine, and of course sunshine is all we need for temps to overperform. It made it to 50 here today. 

The warmup for late next week is looking pretty impressive. Maybe a shot at 60 degrees on Friday? 

4 hours ago, weatherpruf said:

Well I'm no big fan of pesticides, but we would have some massive crop failures without them. But you don't have to use chemical pesticides; there are alternatives. Have been for years. Could they be used on an industrial scale? My daughter, who is an entomologist, says it depends. Cockroaches were ubiquitous in NYC until Combat came out. They never developed resistance to it. So what are they doing now? Developing an aversion to sweet tastes....roaches are coming back.....

Yeah I've used organic pest control in my vegetable garden for many years. Works very well. 

As far as the weather, I'm glad to see there's more and more agreement on a big pattern change for mid to late February. Hopefully it will work out, but it's long range. Obviously we've seen many good looking long range patterns fall apart or get pushed out. This is too far out there for me to get excited. If it still looks good a week from now, then I'll start to get excited. Right now you can look at Euro all the way out to day 10 and it's still ugly for our area, so we have quite a ways to go. At least we have some hope for late winter though. 

5 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Now over 2 years since I last plowed snow. I would take a month like jan 2022 in a heartbeat now 

Yeah January 2022 was nice. We ended up well below average snowfall that winter, but it was great compared to last winter and what we've gotten so far this winter. Let's hope next winter is better.

I still hope we can get a big snowstorm this winter later in February or early March, but the situation right now looks bleak. Pretty bad when at the end of January you can look out almost 2 weeks and it still looks ugly. 

2 hours ago, MJO812 said:

Is it really hard to get 6 plus snowstorm ? We use to get those all the time.

We had a great run up until 2021. A long stretch in which we had many above average snowfall winters. That couldn't last forever. We were overdue for a few bad winters. This isn't a surprise. It's frustrating now, but it's hard to complain after the long run that we had. 

Not surprisingly the Euro continues to get warmer on the 12z run. Now you have to go to NW NJ to see a snow event on the Euro. 

18 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Time to track the clipper flipper next week 

With the marginal temps we would probably need a clipper to come through at night to have any hope of seeing a little accumulation. 

2 hours ago, Allsnow said:

Brutal. Why can’t we hit 70

 

I was hoping the model runs a few days ago that showed sun breaking out and temps popping to the low 60s were gonna be right. I'm going deer hunting tomorrow and that would've been nice, but now we're looking at cloudy and temps stuck in the 40s instead. Too bad. 

The CMC continues to look worse and worse. 12z run is mostly rain and just changes over to a little light wet snow Monday morning. 

11 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

you are contradicting yourself unfortunately IMO - plus you give no reason why its unlikely...

Contradicting myself? Not sure what's so hard understand about me believing that it's a slight chance of working out. Others have talked about the marginal airmass and bad pattern. My point is we can get lucky in bad patterns occasionally, especially this time of year since it's the heart of winter. So it's something to keep an eye on and better than having no chance at all. 

4 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Especially with a horrible airmass and no blocking…

@bluewave always said you don’t want to be in the bullseye 120 hours out. 

I definitely agree that this is unlikely to work out for our area, but it is late January. If there's a time of year we're most likely to get lucky with a thread the needle event in a bad pattern, this is it. Both Euro and CMC have us changing over to heavy snow Sunday night into Monday morning, so it's something to watch. I think it's only a slight chance but it's good to have something to track. 

38 degrees right now feels balmy after the last week. 

3 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

A good phase will make it happen. We are also in middle of winter.

It's a real thread the needle situation, but yeah late January is probably the time you're most likely to be able to pull off a thread the needle event in an unfavorable pattern. I would say only a slight chance that this will work out for the coast, but it's something to keep an eye on. Maybe we can get lucky with HP to the north in the right spot. 

Just now, Stormlover74 said:

Just about done. Sun poking through. 1.1"

5 even for the season

Yeah I just measured 1 inch. It's pressing to the south now and we're down to just flurries. Nice to freshen up the snow and much better than nothing, but still frustrating that the 3 inch snows missed us just a few miles to the south. 

If we end up with 5 (which is looking likely with a mild pattern the rest January) that's below normal for the month obviously, but much better than last January when we had nothing. At least this month wasn't a disaster. 

3 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

I hope…the start of February looks very warm. 

Yeah it doesn't look good. Maybe we can get lucky with 1 big storm later in February or early March. 

15 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Sorry. It really was all about a northern band that we got lucky with 

Thanks. I'm glad you have a nice event in Metuchen! Here it is finally starting to dust the cars and my porch a little bit. We do have a little over a half inch (I measured 0.6") on top of the old snow. Maybe we can get to an inch. As Stormlover said, at least it's freshening up the old snow and trees a little bit. 

Hopefully we can get a bigger event in February that gives the entire area good accumulations. 

2 minutes ago, weatherpruf said:

Oh its really pathetic here. But its all we got. Just seen a plow go by and a salter and have no idea what they were plowing. I did take the snow blower out of mothballs in the hopes for 3 inches but it will not be needed.

Let's hope we get a good event in February. We need it after today's disappointment. 

3 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Nailed it 

What a difference a few miles can make. Here it's the most disappointing event in quite awhile. Never would have thought you would get 2-3 while I struggle to get a dusting on car tops. What a sharp cutoff with this event. 

5 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

But they didn’t know that. They were going by forecasts.

But in the 80s and 90s we never had school canceled beforehand and really didn't get early dismissals either

Yep. As others pointed out, times have changed. It never used to be cancelled ahead of time for borderline events, because sometimes they bust. But posters made good points  on why it's reasonable to cancel beforehand these days. 

I still can't get over the fact that we can't even get a dusting on car tops here today. This is one of the most disappointing events that we've had in recent years. 

1 minute ago, Kjtc1979 said:

I was a school principal for ten years, and we had the authority to make the call to close on our own.  My rule of thumb was to close the day before if there was a credible threat.  The days of waiting until the snow is on the ground and accumulating depended heavily on their being a parent at home to pick up/watch the kids.  These days, parents need as much time as possible to know schools are closed, so they can make child care arrangements. 

State laws require X number of school days per year, so the students will just be in on another day this year.  It's always better to err on the side of caution and just make the day up later in the year.  Everyone's safe and you don't waste an instructional day on a half empty school building.

Thanks for the response. You certainly make a good point. 

13 minutes ago, RU848789 said:

And as of noon, we're at 1.8", so about 0.4" per hour the last 30 min, as intensity has let up with a dry patch, but the radar looks pretty good for at least the next 30 minutes, so we'll get to 2" soon.  Based on the inverted trough being likely to set up well south of here (looks like an impressive blob in the Baltimore-Philly corridor and SE of that line - I'm assuming that's it), I doubt we'll get beyond 3", but even with light snow much of the day 3" is possible.  Still 29F so everything is accumulating even on the roads.  

SBUWX23 mentioned the thin cloud layer. Obviously there's a huge difference with the cloud layer between your location (just slightly to my south) and my location. Forget about roads .... it can't even accumulate on car tops here when it comes down moderately. It's crazy, but I'm glad you're getting a nice event down there. 

27 minutes ago, FPizz said:

Yup, same happening here.  My driveway is just starting to get covered as well.  I measured on the old crust just now when taking the dog out.   Picked up again here.  Maybe we can make a run at 1.5".  I don't totally blame school officials though, when they closed the forecast still said 3-5".  I think all of us knew this was 1-3 in our area.

It's crazy that schools are closed for wet pavement here. I remember when they used to wait until snow accumulated significantly on pavement before making the decision to close schools. It's ridiculous that they make the decision to close way ahead of time for what's expected to be just an advisory level event. Today they ended up closing for nothing. It's still only accumulating a little on old snow with nothing at all even on car tops.