winterwx21

UKMET looks pretty good too. A little warm for the coast, but that model is bad with thermals as many people have mentioned. It would probably be a 3 to 5 inch deal like the CMC. Everything looks decent tonight except for GFS. Hopefully Euro will look decent later. 

Just now, Franklin0529 said:

CMC swing an miss ots

Not true. It's not the huge hit that it was at 12z, but it's still showing a solid 3 to 5 inch event for most of the area. 

18 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

What

It's not a nothing burger

Yep NAM has light snow for us monday night (an inch or so) and then more precip on Tuesday. Borderline temps on Tuesday but it's long range NAM. At least NAM is showing an event. 

2 hours ago, Brian5671 said:

This.   The old model is a dinosaur-no one under 50 watches network tv or newcasts-granted the NFL has huge ratings but everything else is dwindling...

No question network tv is in decline, but I wouldn't go as far as saying that almost no one under 50 watches it. I know a lot of people that are complaining about having to sign up with Peacock to watch this game. There is a lot of outrage, and New York Congressman Pat Ryan even blasted the NFL and sent a letter to Roger Goodell. It's an absolute disgrace that this playoff game isn't on tv. 

1 minute ago, Allsnow said:

I refuse to pay a streaming service to watch that game 

It's so disturbing that a playoff game isn't on regular tv. 

7 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Euro has next weekends storm

 

 

Looks as if next week is our big winter week. Very cold and a couple snow threats. Hopefully it will deliver (I think it will) since it appears that it's gonna warm up after that in late January. 

6 minutes ago, SBUWX23 said:

Those snow maps are way overdone based on that solution. It has snow but it is warm for the I95. No sense in discussing further at this point as it's been in the western side of the guidance anyway. 

The timing for accumulation on the CMC would be good since it has the snow overnight into tuesday morning before the changeover, but as you said it's on the western side of guidance anyway. 

1 minute ago, SBUWX23 said:

Cmc is not a good solution for any of the I95

It has a decent front end thump though before the changeover. 

CMC is snow to mix to rain for monday night into tuesday. Looks like a pretty good hit of snow before the changeover. 

3 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

The usual back and forth

Yep exactly. You knew the Euro wasn't gonna keep showing the snowstorm solution every run at this range (still 5 days out). All of the models will be flip flopping for awhile. At least we have good potential. If anything this Euro run should increase confidence that the warmer CMC solution is less likely to happen. I like where we are right now. 

9 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Nice look on the euro for Tuesday. Just another possibility 

Only 6 days to go (lol) but I like the potential here. Hopefully we can get an all snow event for a change. 

1 minute ago, Stormlover74 said:

I had a couple pretty big gusts and had a big limb come down that thankfully missed my garage and car

Glad to hear that you avoided damage with that limb coming down. 

5 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Still quite gusty out there. Was smart to keep the advisories out til this evening 

The winds today are almost as strong as they were during the storm last night for our area. I got 2.48" of rain and wind gusts in the 40s. Obviously a significant storm, but it was kind of meh for our area. Terrible though for other areas that are seeing major flooding. 

6 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Meanwhile the ukie and gefs want no part of it. Expect anything at this point

Yep seems as if we can always say that 5 days before a potential winter weather event. 

37 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

 Nice gfs solution for next Tuesday 

And GFS brings the snow in early Monday evening. CMC has some rain Monday afternoon but snow on Tuesday. Both models give us decent accumulations. A long way to go but early next week looks interesting. Hopefully Euro this afternoon will show something nice. 

2 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

EURO has now had 3 few similar runs in a row - looking good for 1/16 event

Snow to a wintry mix for the coast on this run with decent accumulations. Long way to go but this looks like our best potential of the season so far. 

Up late tonight so I decided to take a look at the Euro, and I see it has a nice snowstorm for next tuesday. A long way to go on that and I know we have 2 annoying cutters to get through before then, but hopefully we'll have something nice to look forward to for next week. 

46 minutes ago, RU848789 said:

Been snowing moderately for the last hour at 33F and we only got another 1/4", which I think means we had some compaction as the snow is fairly wet, so we're up to 1.75" right now and my 2" prediction looks very doable.  

Nice job with your call. Exactly right for our area. 

2 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Yeah beyond 12 hours it's not reliable

Parts of Hunterdon are battling between sleet and snow so perhaps we hold on a bit longer but definitely hear the pinging now

I was just outside and some rain is starting to mix in here now. Only a few flakes with sleet and a little rain. Temp up a degree to 34.  Looks as if I'm done with accumulation here.

2 inches here. Glad we got to the high end of my prediction. Beautiful scene out there. A couple inches is a small event obviously, but it's much better than getting nothing. 

13 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Heavy snow but at times it appears to be mixing

Sleet starting to mix back in here now too. We're almost done but we're gonna end up close to 2 inches ... pretty nice. As you said, HRRR did a good job this afternoon showing the snow hanging on longer. It was too warm last night into this morning, but its strength is supposed to be very short range so it did its job. 

1.5" here and it has changed back to all snow. Would love to get to 2 inches, which is the high end of what I was expecting. 

9 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Mixing line sinking back south for now 

It's kinda interesting. You can see the mix line making more progress north through Somerset County but it's getting beaten down a bit in Middlesex County. I'm in northwest Middlesex County not too far from the Somerset border, so that's why I'm seeing some sleet mixing in now. 

2 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Mixing line sinking back south for now 

More and more sleet mixing in here though. It's a snow-sleet mix currently. 

It's down to light snow here now, and a few sleet pellets mixed in. 

Very heavy snow here now, in the final minutes before the sleet hits.