winterwx21

Hoping for a strong storm tonight. Next week looks warm. No sign of that first really chilly fall airmass. Long range looks warm for us.

3 hours ago, TriPol said:

I don't think we're going to see 90 again this year. Looks like a stretch to hit 80, too. Glad it's finally over with. October looks cooler than normal, so maybe a warm winter on tap?

We could hit 80 on wednesday. There are signs of a strong cold front during the first week of October, but it could just be a brief cool shot. I think most forecasts are for a warmer than normal pattern overall for this Fall. Not sure where you're hearing a cooler than normal October. It's pretty rare for us to get a cooler than normal month these days.

On 9/19/2018 at 11:24 AM, Brian5671 said:

it's 8 days away, plenty can change...

It wasn't 8 days away. He was talking about the front that came through last night. Or at least that's what I thought he was talking about. Doubt he would be talking about severe potential that was more than a week away. And next friday looks dry so I doubt he meant then. I think he meant friday's night's (last night) front. Too late at night for us to get severe.

4 hours ago, Rtd208 said:

Both the 00z & 06z GFS look pretty wet for next week. There is also a chance for severe weather on Friday.

The timing of the front is late friday night, so I would think that would limit the severe potential.

24 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

hmmm I heard there were hints of a big pattern change come next Wednesday.

Actually the models are showing another warmup for us around then. Looks as if we could get back to 80 by next thursday-friday (27th-28th).

Central Middlesex County NJ getting hammered. Looks as if the very heavy stuff will continue to miss just to the south this afternoon. A lot of rain for NYC south and east, but probably not much for northern Jersey.

1 hour ago, Rtd208 said:

The GFS has been showing things getting pretty wet again over the last few runs from late this upcoming week into next weekend.

Yeah we're gonna have a 4 day heat wave (MON through THUR) and then much cooler and wet for Friday and next weekend. The question is does the heat come back for the following week?

1 hour ago, Gravity Wave said:

Models are trending towards cutting off the heat wave early, looks like the 90s will be confined to Mon-Wed.

Yeah so much for the extended hot stretch. Now down to just 3 days as you said. Front comes in wednesday night.

13 minutes ago, Juliancolton said:

Yeah, but it was close to a miracle that we maintained the 80/75 stuff as long as we did... you can't expect that for the whole of astro summer. I remain leery of the ridge building a bit further east and siphoning off the western GoM moisture. As it stands, the GFS op has dews near or better than 70F for much (most?) of next week. The broadcast mets carrying on about a "taste of autumn" are overselling it imo.

I do agree that a "taste of autumn" is going overboard. High temps around 80 is still summer weather. But at least it will feel very comfortable thursday through saturday with dewpoints in the 50s, and with the dry air the nights will be cool. Definitely the nicest 3 day stretch of the summer.

2 minutes ago, Juliancolton said:

All weather is beautiful sleeping weather if you have a $130 window AC from Wally World.

Anyway, not sure why the commotion about a looming cooldown. We do a couple days of seasonable to perhaps tenuously BN lows and then the heat signal is as strong as it ever was. I have a perhaps ill-considered Misquamicut --> home --> Newport --> DC --> Lake George --> St. Augustine itinerary the first two weeks of Sep, so hopefully warm wx prevails during the beachy facets of my tour.

 

It's because we're finally gonna see a major break from the humidity. We've had pretty much constant high humidity for a couple months. For a change we're gonna see several days with dewpoints in the 50s. A huge change from what we've had this summer and it will feel great.

12 minutes ago, Will - Rutgers said:

From Mount Holly's AFD:

Oh please oh please oh please.

I've been saying for awhile that the best weather of the summer is coming late week. Thursday through saturday will be about as close to perfect as it gets for summer weather. 80 degrees with dewpoints in the 50s. And even next week when it heats up, it won't be the extremely humid wet pattern. It'll be mostly sunny and hot. Shore businesses that suffered this summer due to all the rain will at least be able to enjoy a strong finish with the great beach weather in the week and a half leading up to Labor Day.

26 minutes ago, SACRUS said:

 

Timing of the next round of heat looks on/around 8/25 (next weekend)  Likely arriving Suday and peaking 8/27-8/30 we'll see how hot and if any records could fall then.  Overall looking warm at this point into early Sep (labor day weekend)

Yeah the heat could start as early as sunday the 26th. But the 23rd through the 25th look as if they could be some of the top 10 days of the year. 80 degree weather with very low humidity. A nice break from all the humidity we've had this summer.

Still appears that the nicest weather of the entire summer is coming late next week. Sunny with 80 degree temps and very dry air. Dewpoints in the 50s. Great weather thursday through next weekend. Then heat probably returns for the week before Labor Day.

1 hour ago, SACRUS said:

Looks to turn more wet than heat 8/19 - 8/23-24 before next surge of heat on around 8/25.  So wet and warm-at times hot continues overall with an over performing WAR. 

 

Today will be the hottest day of this heat surge with Friday and Saturday likely dealing with storms/clouds but have potential to hit 90+.  Sat 850s surge to 20C, but plenty of storms could be firing.

 

 

The models are showing us finally getting spectacular weather with very low dewpoints for a few days mid-late next week after the front goes through tuesday night. Probably the nicest weather of the summer.

Amy Freeze is the worst weather person I've ever seen on tv. So many mistakes that it's mind-boggling. Today she keeps talking about how saturday is going to be a beautiful sunny day with low humidity, yet every time the 7 day forecast is put up it has a thunderstorm posted for saturday. She is so dumb that she keeps missing that miatake. And I've seen this type of mistake happen so many times with her. She is a complete and utter joke. What a difference from the high quality forecasts from Lee Goldberg and Jeff Smith. I wonder if someone on channel 7 will finally catch the mistake and take that thunderstorm off of saturday the next time they show the 7 day forecast. This is a joke.

Yep I felt my house shake a little while ago.