winterwx21

2 minutes ago, Tatamy said:

I thought the same as you two hours ago.  Now I am almost at 2”.  This event is delivering.

Definitely more impressive out your way. Here we're going to be on the lower end of rainfall totals. No big surprises. Some places will be closer to 1 inch, while other areas (like your place) will get over 2 inches.

23 minutes ago, ict1523 said:

Unfortunately heavy rain isn't defined by whether it excites you or not. 

Of course. I'm just pointing out that rainfall rates in this type of storm are nothing compared to summer downpours in t-storms. If it rained at this rate in the summer for an hour, you'd get a quarter to half inch and no one would think it's a big deal. It's not true very heavy rain like you get in summer storms, but I know it's impressive because it lasts many hours which gets you to heavy rainfall totals. To me this type of rain isn't exciting (although I'm glad we're getting a much needed soaking), but it's fine if others find it exciting. So far here I've picked up .85 of rain, but on radar the back edge of the steady moderate rain is already approaching Trenton. So we'll probably end up with a little over an inch here. Maybe an inch and a quarter. A good soaking but nothing to write home about IMO.

7 minutes ago, ict1523 said:

You could have used heavy rain in this paragraph a few more times to make sure we'd definitely get your point. 

And yes, there is a burst of heavy rain right now here in Hamilton Heights. 

Sorry. It's just a little pet peeve of mine when people call it heavy rain in these types of storms. I've had the heaviest radar echoes going over me in the last half hour, and it's not even coming down half as heavily as it did during our heavy downpours in t-storms this summer. These noreaster type of storms really just have mostly moderate rain, but of course rainfall totals will be very impressive because it lasts several hours. It just doesn't excite me like the blinding downpours in summer t-storms do. The winds tomorrow will be much more exciting.

16 minutes ago, Rtd208 said:

A good swath of heavy rain is about to move into the NYC metro.

Getting into the peak of the rain event with the yellows and oranges on radar going over us. Coming down good but I wouldn't go as far as calling it heavy rain. It's nothing compared to the very heavy rain you get in summer t-storms, where you can get an inch of rain in 20 minutes. This is more like a high end moderate rain, but of course we will end up with very heavy rainfall totals because it lasts much longer than a summer t-storm. But this definitely isn't HEAVY rain. It seems heavy for this time of year, but again nothing like the true heavy rain in summer downpours.

Looks like another blowtorch pattern starts next sunday. Amazing how much late season warmth we get these days.

It's actually sunny and the temp is up to 70 here right now. A beautiful afternoon. Much different than forecasts that painted today as a cloudy ugly day due to the coastal storm. Turns out we had very little rain yesterday and now a beautiful day today, so different than the forecast. But I realize how difficult of a forecast it was with this type of coastal storm in this pattern.

Only a few hundreths of an inch of rain here, and I'm only slightly west of NYC. The main rain did not get too far west as expected. Would have been horrible if it was winter and we were just missing out on a big snowstorm.

5 minutes ago, NYCweatherNOW said:

I made a mistake and I admitted. Snowski on the other hand had several 90’s on his calls but we only got one big 90 which in my opinion I lost there but still I don’t think we get 80’s anymore and if we do we can probably reach high 80’s cause of the extremes. We’ll see though 

temperature dropped to 52 now raining moderately.

And it was more than just 90. It made it to mid 90s which was incredible. It's not a good idea to make calls about potential crazy events not happening, because the weather has gotten so crazy these days. We have so many extremes. We can see 80 degrees in February and then a blizzard the next week.

10 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Interesting watching the 2 areas of precip intersect over central nj

 

No rain here yet this morning. To me it doesn't look as if much rain will make it west of NYC for this whole event. Maybe a tenth of an inch of rain if we're lucky.

1 minute ago, NYCweatherNOW said:

80’s??? Did you have your coffee this morning! Fall is here there’s not going to be 80’s anymore sorry to break it to you.

Moderate rain here in midtown Manhattan with a temperature of 54

We've had 80 degree weather in late October in recent years. Just because it's cool now doesn't mean in can't warm up again, and we see strong signals that we'll see a warm stretch later in the month. We're done with 90 degree weather, but we can certainly see a couple more 80 degree days. At the very least we'll see some more mid-upper 70s.

3 hours ago, bluewave said:

It would be nice if the Euro is correct about the stalled front merging with a coastal storm this week. Rain amounts like this would go a long way toward ending the drought conditions around here. 
 

 

The last few days all forecasts have been talking about spectacular weather tuesday through the rest of next week. Upper 60s and sunny, some of the nicest weather of the year. What a change to go from that, to rain all week? These models do a terrible job.

Up to 94 here now. Amazing.

The cool shot for the end of the week is looking less and less impressive. We'll probably be back in the 70s by sunday.

92 degrees here right now. Ridiculously hot for the first day of fall.

4 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

yeah both nams has almost nothing for today-wonder if that line in Western NJ robs energy for later?

That's possible. And I wonder if NAM  and RGEM are right about tomorrow now being the big storm day. The 12z runs of both models are impressive with tomorrow's storms.

12z NAM and RGEM are advertising a much more widespread round of heavy storms tomorrow during the evening compared to today, even though today is advertised as the bigger severe weather day. Do you guys buy that? This is quite a change.

Heavy downpours have delivered a little over 1 inch of rain so far here this afternoon. The downpours are moving very little and just sort of sitting over this area.

1 hour ago, Stormlover74 said:

Not likely but I hope the heaviest rain can hold off until after 10 tomorrow night

Not likely is right. Rain looks as if it could start around noon time, with the heaviest during the afternoon to early evening. The event will probably be over by 10pm.

2 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

I'm warned but all the cells are to my north east and west

Yeah it's frustrating having these storms just barely miss us. Some missing me just a few miles to the southeast here in Middlesex county, and others missing just a few miles to the northwest. At least we had that good storm early in the morning, and it's likely something will hit us in the next several hours. But so far no luck this afternoon.

1 hour ago, uofmiami said:

NOUS61 KPHI 030646
FTMDIX
Message Date: Aug 03 2019 07:10:52

KDIX has gone down. We'll notify techs shortly. 

It's mind-boggling how often that radar goes down. They have a serious problem and Mount Holly should be embarrassed about how unreliable that radar is. Upton's radar, on the other hand, never goes down.

4 hours ago, SACRUS said:

Looking ahead 

8/3 - 8/9 : will continue the near normal / bit warmer regime we've been in, teetering on 90  (upper 80s) and with enough sun, some spots push 90.

8/9 - 8/16 : Trough / wet and likely at or below normal. I still think the stronger heat will be delayed not denied following the progression after the EU heat just a bit delayed.  we'll track the cooldown and see how cool we get.  Already it is looking more next weekend than Thu as models had been initially honing in on.  Perhaps it adjusts over time. 

The models are showing beautiful weather with low humidity next weekend thanks to that trough. I'm not sure we're gonna have "wet" with the trough. The trough could actiually give us some of our nicest weather of the summer, rather than the high humidity and t-storms we've been dealing with.

5 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

We will here. 92+ today thru Tuesday 

Yeah and I wouldn't be surprised if we touch 95 monday or tuesday. Not quite as extreme as the last heat wave, but more than just run of the mill summer heat. Not sure why he keeps talking as if the worst of summer is over. August always offers some intense heat.

We really got hammered here. Some 50mph wind gusts and the rain was blowing sideways the whole time during the storm. A quick inch of rain and lots of lightning. Fun storm.

2 hours ago, bluewave said:

12z Euro has quite a surge of major heat and humidity after the Barry remnants on Thursday.

 

Last night it showed this type of extreme heat for wednesday, but it looks as if it backed off on that and now holds off the extreme heat until after Barry's remnants late week.

54 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Wasn't expecting to see widespread rain this morning. Already more in the bucket than all weekend

Yeah models were showing only a few showers for early this morning. Definitely a surprise that the morning is turning out to be a total washout. Should clear up this afternoon thoiugh.