winterwx21

Weather for the 4th looking pretty good for outdoor plans, other than the fact that it will be uncomfortable with the humidity. Models are showing just isolated t-storms, and mainly well west of NYC. Should be dry for cookouts and fireworks in most areas.

1 hour ago, NycStormChaser said:

1 hour ago, winterwx21 said:

And most importantly we're finally going into a dry pattern. Much needed after the weeks and weeks of constant rain.

I wouldnt say a dry pattern just less rain than we've had. There's a few rainy days over the next 10.

I don't see any rainy days. Just a few days with isolated t-storms. Overall a dry pattern the next 10 days.

37 minutes ago, Isotherm said:

Tuesday/Wednesday will be mid-upper 80s for most locations away from the immediate coast, and Thurs-Saturday has a shot at the first heat wave for much of NJ [inland]. The pattern overall should be warmer than normal prospectively.

And most importantly we're finally going into a dry pattern. Much needed after the weeks and weeks of constant rain.

7 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Storms seem to be lining up now

 

Looks as if the storm hitting Allentown will be here by around 1pm. Then perhaps a break for a few hours before another round later in the afternoon. 12z RGEM shows the 2 rounds hitting us, one early afternoon and another late afternoon.

2 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

NAM says what storms this afternoon

HRRR is similar. Both models have the storms missing us to the south today. Will be interesting to see if those models are right, because SPC has the whole area in a slight risk.

Just now, Stormlover74 said:

very heavy rain, bout it

Some decent wind too. Not severe but some 30 to 40mph gusts here. Cool watching the rain blow sideways in the strong north winds. Very very heavy rain to.

13 hours ago, weatherpruf said:

Folks I usually only pop in during winter here, which is appropo as it might as well be winter.....I can't remember so much cold in May as we've had the last few years. Decades ago I could have most of my garden going by now, but the last few years? If you plant summer crops ( Mother's Day was traditionally the safe time ) they are going to die or be in such shock they won't fully recover. Plus, all the rain is disgusting. Question, are these the climactic conditions we needed in winter? Canceled a fishing trip this weekend.....brrrr...

I planted the tomatoes and all other summer crops on May 4th and they look fine. This cool cloudy weather slows down their growth dramatically, but it doesn't kill or harm them since there's no frost. The summer crops will just be delayed a little bit. On the other hand this cool/wet weather is absolutely great for the cool weather crops that I planted in late March. I'm getting the biggest lettuce crop I've ever gotten and the broccoli plants look great.

11 hours ago, Snow88 said:

How can people hate this weather ?

Cool temps are way better and more comfortable than hot temps.

I don't think most here want downright hot temps. Just nice warm comfortable temps. 70 to 80 degrees with low humidity is comfortable. The next few days we're gonna have low 50s with cloudy skies and rain. That type of weather feels so raw and miserable. You can't do anything outside in that type of weather. Don't know how you can root for that type of weather, especially since you're a baseball fan. You can't play baseball in that weather. How can you not want 70 and sunny for baseball??

20 hours ago, forkyfork said:

no tomato planting til memorial day?

I planted mine on saturday. No more threats of frost so I don't think it's a problem. A good soaking yesterday and now some warmer temps and sunshine today and tomorrow, so they should get going.

6 hours ago, bluewave said:

Same old story for March continues. Brief warm up on Sunday with our next possible 60+degree reading. Sharp cold front later Monday and big temperature drop into the 20’s for early Tuesday and Wednesday.

KNYC   GFSX MOS GUIDANCE   3/22/2019  0000 UTC
FHR  24| 36  48| 60  72| 84  96|108 120|132 144|156 168|180 192
FRI  22| SAT 23| SUN 24| MON 25| TUE 26| WED 27| THU 28| FRI 29 CLIMO
X/N  51| 36  51| 37  60| 43  52| 26  38| 27  47| 34  54| 42  60 36 54

The good news is it looks as if we'll have an extended warm stretch after the tuesday-wednesday cooldown. A good amount of days with high temps in the 60s and possibly 70. Last year it was a real struggle in late March and early April with cold weather lingering for a long time. I'm glad its looking as if it won't be a repeat this year. It'll be nice to start the vegetable garden (cool weather crops like lettuce and broccoli) late next week in warm weather. Perfect timing.

39 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Yeah, looks like we could see another brief warm up on Sunday before the next cool down. This spring so far is all about taking the warmer days when we can get them.

And another warmup late next week after the tuesday/wednesday cold shot. An up and down pattern for awhile with a couple cool days and couple warm days.

Believe it or not I'm up to 78 degrees right now! Talk about a busted temp forecast!

22 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Shocking right? The models backing way off on a phantom cold and snow pattern as we get closer. The cold and snow has always been 10+ days away since mid-November, staying there and never moving forward in time. And the hype over the week after St. Patrick’s Day (3/18-3/23) is bogus. Super positive NAO and AO, No 50/50 low, bad trough positioning, very fast, progressive flow. And to top it off, no arctic cold. Just cooler than normal for late March which isn’t cold, given that normal highs are skyrocketing at that point. Long days, late August/early September sun angle overhead, climo fighting you, good luck getting a coastal snowstorm 

The cold pattern for the first week of March did materialize and we got 2 snowstorms out of it, which you ended up being wrong about. That week salvaged the winter for me. Instead of way below normal snowfall, that week brought us up to only slightly below normal snowfall for the winter. It was nice to have snow stay on the ground for an entire week too, which doesn't happen very often that late in the season.

Models are really backing off on the colder pattern for the week of March 17th. Looks like just a return to cooler near normal temps, which means highs near 50. That cold/snowy first week of March was probably out last wintry week. Spring looks to settle in nicely, unlike like last year.

Just now, snowman19 said:

You’ve been calling for major snowstorms and severe cold non stop since 11/15. This is month number 5 in a row. The stats speak for themselves

You have to admit you kept saying we wouldn't get any snowstorms out of the week long cold pattern in early March. We ended up getting 2 snowstorms. I got about 11 inches between the 2 storms.

50 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

Gfs looks good for late March. 

12z GFS actually shows a warm pattern starting in late March near the end of its run, around the 23rd. But before then it shows a cold pattern from around the 17th to 22nd. We'll see if we can get any snow out of the cold pattern in the latter part of mid March and early part of late March. I do hope it warms up in very late March in time for the start of the growing season like 12z GFS hints at.

26 minutes ago, bluewave said:

 

The Euro MJO forecast would be a first if it verified. No cases of the MJO going from 1 to 4 and then back to 1 again during March. So any moderation in temperatures looks to last about a week before turning colder again later in March. Looks like a lagged strong MJO 4 +PNA response for later March.

 

 

Looks as if it could get quite warm late next week before the colder temps come back in. Maybe high temps near 60 thursday and friday.

14 minutes ago, TriPol said:

You know it's a bad winter when we're tracking events that give us between 0.5" and 1" and our biggest storm was in November.

I felt that way about this winter too, but the 2 snowstorms we just had improved my opinion about this winter. 4.5" and 6" here. Not huge snowstorms, but nice moderate snowstorms and enough to pull us out of the well below average snowfall category. Early March saved this from being a terrible winter. We'll see if we can add a little more early March snow on friday before it warms up. Sometimes you can get a decent period of snow at the end of a cold pattern as the warmer air tries to work in. That doesn't appear likely right now, but again there's enough time for it to trend better.

0z GFS increased us to 1 inch of snow for friday. Need to see some other models come aboard to believe that it'll be a decent light snowfall like GFS has. More likely it will be just flurries/snow showers, but there's enough time for it to trend better.

20 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

It had been showing 2 inches. It dropped it, no model has so much as a half inch of snow now. Even the most liberal of all maps shows less than a half inch

I don't think anyone cares that much about a little light snow for friday. We got our 2 early March snowstorms, which you were wrong about BTW. Remember a couple weeks ago I kept saying with 2 weeks of consistent cold air in late Feb/early March, I couldn't understand why so many people were giving up on the winter. Odds were that the models would pick up on some threats as it got closer. I'm glad I was right and it worked out well for snow lovers.

GFS has some light snow for friday.

4 minutes ago, weatherpruf said:

Still snowing here, bigger flakes now. 

Yeah good burst of heavy snow now near the end of the storm. Back edge isn't far away. Maybe this last burst of heavy snow can get us to 6". Goodnight.

6 minutes ago, weatherpruf said:

Still got snow here for the time being. Weren't we all supposed to rain at some point?

Some of the models had the rain/snow line getting up to Middlesex County. We were going to be near the edge here late in the storm, but I thought the rain wouldn't quite make it all the way up to northern Middlesex County. And it looks as if that's the way it's working out. Just a little sleet at times. I'm back to snow here. Looks like one more good burst on radar before the back edge gets here.

1 minute ago, weatherpruf said:

The sleet seems to be kinda random. It isn't sleeting here but it is a bit north of me and south of me. Strange.

Yeah I'm finally getting some sleet here. Was just outside and we're just about up to 5 inches. At the very least we're making it to the low end of the NWS 5 to 8 inch forecast. Still a little ways to go, so I still think there's a decent chance we get to 6.

Just now, SnoSki14 said:

Another crappy storm in an equally crappy winter and yet it'll likely be my second biggest event. 

The sleet completely killed the totals. 

That's a shame. The sleet line stopped before getting to me up here in the northern corner of the County here in Piscataway. It has been all snow except for a few sleet pellets mixed in briefly. Looking good to end up with more than 6 inches here.