winterwx21

On 9/19/2018 at 11:24 AM, Brian5671 said:

it's 8 days away, plenty can change...

It wasn't 8 days away. He was talking about the front that came through last night. Or at least that's what I thought he was talking about. Doubt he would be talking about severe potential that was more than a week away. And next friday looks dry so I doubt he meant then. I think he meant friday's night's (last night) front. Too late at night for us to get severe.

4 hours ago, Rtd208 said:

Both the 00z & 06z GFS look pretty wet for next week. There is also a chance for severe weather on Friday.

The timing of the front is late friday night, so I would think that would limit the severe potential.

24 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

hmmm I heard there were hints of a big pattern change come next Wednesday.

Actually the models are showing another warmup for us around then. Looks as if we could get back to 80 by next thursday-friday (27th-28th).

Central Middlesex County NJ getting hammered. Looks as if the very heavy stuff will continue to miss just to the south this afternoon. A lot of rain for NYC south and east, but probably not much for northern Jersey.

1 hour ago, Rtd208 said:

The GFS has been showing things getting pretty wet again over the last few runs from late this upcoming week into next weekend.

Yeah we're gonna have a 4 day heat wave (MON through THUR) and then much cooler and wet for Friday and next weekend. The question is does the heat come back for the following week?

1 hour ago, Gravity Wave said:

Models are trending towards cutting off the heat wave early, looks like the 90s will be confined to Mon-Wed.

Yeah so much for the extended hot stretch. Now down to just 3 days as you said. Front comes in wednesday night.

13 minutes ago, Juliancolton said:

Yeah, but it was close to a miracle that we maintained the 80/75 stuff as long as we did... you can't expect that for the whole of astro summer. I remain leery of the ridge building a bit further east and siphoning off the western GoM moisture. As it stands, the GFS op has dews near or better than 70F for much (most?) of next week. The broadcast mets carrying on about a "taste of autumn" are overselling it imo.

I do agree that a "taste of autumn" is going overboard. High temps around 80 is still summer weather. But at least it will feel very comfortable thursday through saturday with dewpoints in the 50s, and with the dry air the nights will be cool. Definitely the nicest 3 day stretch of the summer.

2 minutes ago, Juliancolton said:

All weather is beautiful sleeping weather if you have a $130 window AC from Wally World.

Anyway, not sure why the commotion about a looming cooldown. We do a couple days of seasonable to perhaps tenuously BN lows and then the heat signal is as strong as it ever was. I have a perhaps ill-considered Misquamicut --> home --> Newport --> DC --> Lake George --> St. Augustine itinerary the first two weeks of Sep, so hopefully warm wx prevails during the beachy facets of my tour.

 

It's because we're finally gonna see a major break from the humidity. We've had pretty much constant high humidity for a couple months. For a change we're gonna see several days with dewpoints in the 50s. A huge change from what we've had this summer and it will feel great.

12 minutes ago, Will - Rutgers said:

From Mount Holly's AFD:

Oh please oh please oh please.

I've been saying for awhile that the best weather of the summer is coming late week. Thursday through saturday will be about as close to perfect as it gets for summer weather. 80 degrees with dewpoints in the 50s. And even next week when it heats up, it won't be the extremely humid wet pattern. It'll be mostly sunny and hot. Shore businesses that suffered this summer due to all the rain will at least be able to enjoy a strong finish with the great beach weather in the week and a half leading up to Labor Day.

26 minutes ago, SACRUS said:

 

Timing of the next round of heat looks on/around 8/25 (next weekend)  Likely arriving Suday and peaking 8/27-8/30 we'll see how hot and if any records could fall then.  Overall looking warm at this point into early Sep (labor day weekend)

Yeah the heat could start as early as sunday the 26th. But the 23rd through the 25th look as if they could be some of the top 10 days of the year. 80 degree weather with very low humidity. A nice break from all the humidity we've had this summer.

Still appears that the nicest weather of the entire summer is coming late next week. Sunny with 80 degree temps and very dry air. Dewpoints in the 50s. Great weather thursday through next weekend. Then heat probably returns for the week before Labor Day.

1 hour ago, SACRUS said:

Looks to turn more wet than heat 8/19 - 8/23-24 before next surge of heat on around 8/25.  So wet and warm-at times hot continues overall with an over performing WAR. 

 

Today will be the hottest day of this heat surge with Friday and Saturday likely dealing with storms/clouds but have potential to hit 90+.  Sat 850s surge to 20C, but plenty of storms could be firing.

 

 

The models are showing us finally getting spectacular weather with very low dewpoints for a few days mid-late next week after the front goes through tuesday night. Probably the nicest weather of the summer.

5 hours ago, NJwx85 said:

While it does appear that the batch of rain from down in the Mid-Atlantic is having trouble reaching further North of Central NJ, there is quite a bit of rain over Northern PA and extreme Southern NY that appears to be heading in this direction.

https://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?product=NCR&rid=bgm&loop=yes

Of course heading in our direction doesn't mean it's gonna rain here, and the rain fell apart as expected. The models were right about us getting nothing this afternoon and evening.

10 minutes ago, SACRUS said:

Focus on batch of rain/storms moving NE out of  WV/SW-PA

Yes I'm not sure what he was talking about near Allentown. On the Mount Holly base reflectivity loop you can see echoes south of Allentown through central Jersey, but they are clearly false echoes (ground clutter).

19 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

We'll see.

When I made my earlier post I hadn't looked at a single model run, just based it off of current trends and observations.

It looks like the radar is trying to fill in over E PA near Allentown, so I guess time will tell.

Fill in near Allentown? All I see on radar out that way is false echoes. And you can clearly see the echoes way to the south being pushed east when they make it up to southern Jersey. It's very obvious to me that there's not going to be any rain at all up here this afternoon, but we'll see.

2 hours ago, NJwx85 said:

Warm front is currently advancing Northward through the mid-atlantic, with an expanding rain shield up to about Cape May.

By the looks of the radar, should be a very wet second half of the day. 

Most of the models have this activity moving offshore, but you can clearly see it's all moving NNE.

Hard to believe every model is gonna be wrong about rain not making it up here this afternoon. You can see the radar echoes weakening and moving more ENE once they get up to southern Jersey. I could see some sprinkles making it up to central Jersey, but that should be about it.

1 minute ago, SnoSki14 said:

Just missing me about 8-10 miles north.

Missed me by 1 to 2 miles to the south. Lots of thuinder and right near the edge of the dark clouds. Frustrating to have the storm that close and miss it.

32 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

Ended up being dissapointing here.

Especially since tonight was supposed to be the heaviest all week.

Early in the day someone pointed out that NAM had the heavy rain missing NYC to the east for tonight. You said radar over models, but the NAM ended up being right. It was right on the money about the heavy rain going just to the east of NYC tonight.

Radar doesn't look very promising for much rain here tonight. Looks as if it's gonna miss to the west and east, which is what the latest run of HRRR shows. I think we'll see very little rain tonight, which obviously is opposite of what forecasts are saying.

39 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

It's been fairly benign thus far, we'll see if we can get more organized convection. There's definitely more instability today, but not much of a trigger. 

Wednesday will give us the best chances, perhaps the region will escape any flooding rains. 

And then after wednesday it looks as if it will improve. The models aren't showing much for thursday through the weekend. Then perhaps an increase in activity early next week.

15 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

based on the current radar its definitely out to lunch

I was just coming here to post about this. Laughable that the 17z run of HRRR is showing nothing for northern Jersey while a solid line of heavy storms is moving through. Don't know how it could miss something so obvious.

Loud thunder woke me up a little after 6am, but the storm missed me just a shade to the south. Only sprinkles here. One Piscataway station just a few miles away from me reported a half inch of rain. Frustrating for it to be so close. We really need the rain. The ground is bone dry and I was hoping to not have to water the garden today. Hopefully this next batch of rain moving into western Jersey won't miss me to the south as well. Looks like a close call with my area being near the edge again.

Picked up .31" from the batch of rain early this morning. Now getting light showers from the last batch of rain of the day. Probably will add only a few hundreths here, but at least this morning's rain was enough to water the garden. As I mentioned a few days ago, the timing of the front was too early to get heavy t-storms this afternoon. Maybe it will blossom in time to hit areas to the east. Eastern LI could get some heavy rain later.

Amy Freeze is the worst weather person I've ever seen on tv. So many mistakes that it's mind-boggling. Today she keeps talking about how saturday is going to be a beautiful sunny day with low humidity, yet every time the 7 day forecast is put up it has a thunderstorm posted for saturday. She is so dumb that she keeps missing that miatake. And I've seen this type of mistake happen so many times with her. She is a complete and utter joke. What a difference from the high quality forecasts from Lee Goldberg and Jeff Smith. I wonder if someone on channel 7 will finally catch the mistake and take that thunderstorm off of saturday the next time they show the 7 day forecast. This is a joke.

The timing of the front friday looks a little earlier than I'd like. Looks more like late morning and early afternoon storms rather than late day. Hopefully it won't be so early that we miss out on the best storms. That would be a shame.