winterwx21

The models are still showing a very cold pattern starting March 3rd that lasts several days. So again I don't think it's time to completely give up yet, even though right now things favor cold/dry. It's far enough into the future that the models could be missing something. Get several days of well below normal temps in early March and you at least have a chance.

20 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

The models have been showing a very cold and/or snowy pattern at day 10 for over 4 months now. It simply stays in the long range and never moves forward in time. I think everyone is done falling for it at this point. 

We've had cold patterns this winter. Early December and that historic snowstorm that missed us to the south was a result. January ended up normal in the temperature department because we had some very cold periods in there. Cold patterns did materialize and we've had enough cold to have at least an average winter in the snowfall department, but we have been very unlucky. Four snow events missed us to the south due to confluence being too strong and bad timing. Southern NJ has gotten more snow than us which is pretty unusual. So I wouldn't say the models have always been wrong about day 10 cold this winter. They've been right a number of times, but we kept missing snowstorms due to poor timing. Hopefully the advertised cold pattern for early March will give us a snow event. Right now the pattern appears to be cold/dry but there's enough time for that to change.

GFS still has a very cold pattern starting March 3rd. Almost a week of well below normal temps. The cold is too overpowering so any storms stay way to the south. However if the model is overdoing the cold/confluence it's possible we can get something in here. I see a lot of people giving up, but having extended cold in early March at least gives us a chance. Right now it looks cold/dry, but it's too early to say for sure that we won't get any snow out of the cold pattern.

1 minute ago, snowman19 said:

After the mild February 22-28, it’s a one week cold period (March 1-7) and that’s it. The tropical convective forcing moves to the Maritime Continent and the PAC jet/torch cometh, there’s not going to be a -NAO to stop it this time like last March, no way to sugar coat it

The models are showing the very cold pattern coming in March 3rd. There might be a brief warmup for the 1st/2nd before the cold really comes in.

Anyway I agree the pattern doesn't look great for snow depite the cold, but if you get an entire week of well below average temps in early March you have a shot. It's certainly possible to get some moisture in here during a cold week, even if it isn't a big storm. Hopefully the models pick up on something when it gets closer.

4 minutes ago, RU848789 said:

 

Have had intermittent light to moderate snow the last 90 minutes and we now have 2.1" of snow on the ground, as of 2:30 pm (0.6" in 90 minutes isn't great, but it's not zero either). Radar looks dried up for the next hour or so, will be interesting to see if the precip builds back up or not, while we still have enough cold air for snow/sleet.  Most models are showing sleet by 6 pm in the Edison area and then maybe a bit of ZR before the plain rain comes.  Let's see if we can eke out 3" total.  

2" so far here. I see on radar echoes are starting to increase some in eastern PA. We might get one more pickup in the snow to get us close to the 3" mark before it changes over. Let's hope.

52 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said:

While thats not really what our area wants to see the HRRR did a  good job with the last storm

That's not correct. HRRR was the model that busted terribly with the last storm. Remember everyone here kept commenting that HRRR was the coldest and showed NYC getting 2 inches of snow. NAM was warmest and said no snow for NYC and only for well north of NYC. Most of the area ended up getting no snow accumulation.  NAM did best with the last storm and HRRR was the worst.

It's light rain here. Looks as if HRRR is going to bust with the colder solution. Probably have to go north of NYC to see accumulating snow like NAM and RGEM have been showing.

37 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

3K Nam also for tonight has snow to start

The Nam is also faster with the arrival of the precip for Wednesday

It's long range for NAM, but NAM does give Central NJ several inches of snow wednesday. Better than what other models show. We need the confluence to trend a little weaker so the snow doesn't fall apart as it comes in. GFS, GGEM and EURO have been showing it weakening to light snow due to the confluence and give us only around 1 inch. Hopefully the better looking 12z NAM will be the start of a better trend for wednesday.

For tonight HRRR is colder and gets 1 to 2 inches of snow down to NYC. NAM however says you have to go north of NYC to see accumulating snow. Continues to be a tough call.

2 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

The models had the precip coming in Wednesday morning. Now they have it coming in Wednesday afternoon which allows the high to shift east as the low comes up.

Can it change ? Sure but it's not looking good right now.

2 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

The models had the precip coming in Wednesday morning. Now they have it coming in Wednesday afternoon which allows the high to shift east as the low comes up.

Can it change ? Sure but it's not looking good right now.

It looks as if the snow has trouble coming in due to dry air. Looks like a good snow shield approaching but then it weakens to light snow as it bumps up against the high pressure and dry air. 0z GFS and GGEM continue to give our area around 1 inch of snow wednesday afternoon before it mixes at night.

1 minute ago, White Gorilla said:

What is Wednesday looking like at this point? 

Most of the 12z model runs were disappointing, showing only around 1 inch of snow wednesday. The 0z runs are just starting to come out, so we'll see shortly if they beef up wednesday's storm and make it a little colder.

10 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

How many times are you going to keep doing this, this winter? Serious question? You’ve been super hyping everything into a snowstorm for going on 4 months now, with less than 2 inches total to show for it 

What about other winters though? I've noticed for years you downplay every snow threat. It has worked well for you this winter, but other recent winters when we had way above normal snowfall you were wrong most of the time. The way you post makes it seem as if you hate snow, yet your name is snowman. You have every right to like whatever type of weather you like, but I'm just curious ...... do you like snow or not? If you don't then maybe you should change your name to summerMan or something like that lol.

1 minute ago, Stormlover74 said:

Quickly jumped to 32 and plain rain now

Yeah not much of a period of freezing rain here with how quickly the temps are rising. I'm up to 32.5

14 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

12z euro shows moderate to heavy rain later Tuesday eve, so whatever we get is washed away....

Depends on how much we get. If we get a solid 4 inches of snow with some ice on top of that, I don't think the rain would be able to wash it all away unless it gets really warm. This isn't an event where temps are supposed to spike to the 50s after it changes to rain. What's on the ground will probably become very heavy and tough to shovel due to the higher water content.

1 hour ago, Stormlover74 said:

Nam shifted south with wave 1. Starting to think it's a dusting to 1" kind of event

RGEM however shifted north and gets an inch to inch and a half up to our area. Still a very close call for wave 1. Could just be a dusting, but just a small shift north and it could be 2 inches.

40 minutes ago, RU848789 said:

Sweet - thanks!

You're welcome. One of my favorite things to look at during winter.

17 minutes ago, RU848789 said:

Thanks for confirming.  What's the "color loop?"

http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html

It's just like watching the futurecast (precip types, timing and movement) that you see on tv weathercasts, only it's the Canadian models instead. For the first 48 hours it shows the RGEM, and then at hour 49 it switches to the GGEM and goes out to day 5. You just have to hit animate. Very good tool.

3 minutes ago, RU848789 said:

CMC looks like 3-4" of snow for the immediate NYC metro (including my house, lol), followed by another 0.6" of LE as sleet (as per soundings through 0Z Weds/96 hours, which show a definite sleet signature until at least that time, as per below (for Edison - NYC was very similar - Trenton was warmer, so less sleet likely), with a warm nose above 32F from 700 to 900 mbar and with the bottom ~2500 feet of the column at or below 32F), followed by another 1" of rain to be conservative, as the soundings 6 hours later are definitely rain (surface at 38F).  In that case, the ~1" of frozen LE would likely simply absorb the 1" of pure rain, with minimal to modest melting, since surface temps just barely make it above 40F by early Weds morning, although they stay above 32F through Wednesday, so melting will occur (and not a hard freeze, as modeled).  I bet the TT map would look just like the FV3 map if the CMC TT map showed sleet.  

 

 

 

Yeah the GGEM gives a long period of sleet after the 3 to 4 inches of snow. I just watched the color loop and it gives our area sleet for about 7 hours, before the change to rain.

1 minute ago, RU848789 said:

You don't understand snow lovers then.  I absolutely love everything about seeing snow falling and accumulating, even if it gets washed away, since I enjoy watching it and being out in it - sure I'd like it to stick around, but that's secondary to me.  And it's even more fun if that snow was well predicted.  

And people overestimate snow getting washed away too. Yeah an inch or two will get washed away, but it's rare for 5 or 6 inches to get completely washed away unless it's VERY warm during the rain. Usually the snow absorbs a lot of the water and becomes very heavy.

5 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

12z models horrid....cutters cutters and more cutters...

Even with that though, we would have one nice highlight if we can get a 3 to 6 inch snowfall before the change to sleet and rain with tuesday's storm. GGEM and UKMET look pretty good.

Is anyone watching the first wave for sunday night into monday morning? 0z NAM and GGEM give southern NJ some decent snow accumulations. I wouldn't ignore this first wave, even though the tuesday storm has bigger potential. We just need a little trend north.

51 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Yeah I don't buy that for a second. At worst it's a SWFE and at best what the Para Gfs showed. 

Even with GFS' cutter solution tonight, it still showed a 1 to 3 inch snow before the change to rain. GGEM showed 3 to 5 inches. I think too many people are giving up too early on this one. Even if it isn't an all out snowstorm, it could be a front end dump type of storm.

So much for the inch or so of snow that we were supposed to get here in northern Middlesex. Just some wet flakes. This disappointing winter continues.

12 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Maybe the 3k did

No I was talking the regular NAM. I looked at both snowmaps of 18z NAM on Pivotalweather. The 10:1 ratio map gave our area 1.5 to 2 inches and the Kuchera ratio gave us about 1 inch.

55 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Nam has nada

Not quite nada. 18z NAM gave our area about 1 inch of snow.

11 minutes ago, RU848789 said:

Huh?  NYC is only 3-4 inches below normal to this point...

That's true, but most aren't looking at it that way because that snowstorm was a freak event in mid November. We've had pretty much no snow at all during met winter and it's almost February. Let's hope we can at least pull out a little 1 to 2 inch snow tuesday night.