winterwx21

35 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

ICON nada, CMC nada, GFS less than one inch even up here. This winter is a dumpster fire shit show. NYC probably breaks the all time record now

UKMET and HRRR also say you have to go to northwest NJ to see a little snow accumulation. Yep it's looking very likely that NYC will break the record. 

4 minutes ago, Winterweatherlover said:

Just trust the RGEM, it doesn't tease, it's been mainly all rain for NYC all along. 

It's gotten to the point that when we're at hour 84 we should just ignore the NAM and trust the RGEM. It's amazing how much more accurate RGEM is than NAM at that range. NAM doesn't seem to wake up until you get inside 48 hours. 

4 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

I'm guilty of it as well but the nam really shouldn't be used or even discussed outside of 48 hours and even then it's not reliable ...and yes I know it nailed 2016

Yeah I don't give the NAM any weight anymore. Trusting the RGEM is the way to go. It's amazing how superior RGEM is to NAM. 

There's your predictable cave by the NAM. No snow for NYC on the 18z run. All you can do is laugh.

22 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

the favorable period really begins in February when the TPV gets displaced and allows waves to track underneath it. big overrunning signal here

9/30 members give NYC over a foot of snow in the next 16 days. not sure why futility is even being mentioned 

But you've said yourself that good patterns often don't produce. Also it wasn't long ago that you said the pattern looked good for late January, right after wednesday's cutter. Now it's pushed out to February. As others have said, we've been kicking the can all winter. I think when you're getting to the end of January without even an inch of snow, it makes sense to talk futility. 

2 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Euro is cutter after cutter….

Yep. CMC also has a big cutter in early February, and even GFS now shows some warm air in the long range in early February. I don't think it's ever going to change this winter ... probably heading towards our worst ever. 

21 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

The NAM and Euro were a fail for today. Overdone

RGEM wins as usual. That's a terrific model. 

8 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

It's 2 degrees warmer at 18z when the snow has just gotten underway than what 06z was showing 

Yeah last night's Euro run showed us snowing at 18z Wednesday, while today's run shows us getting a mix at 18z. 

8 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

It’s not warmer! Less snow because the best forcing goes north of us. 

It's a little bit of both. A little warmer and best forcing goes north. Bottom line is it went from showing a few inches for the NYC last night to almost nothing today. I'm sure NAM will start to back down soon too. 

10 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Orlovsky just said on ESPN that Joe Burrow is the best QB in the NFL, I generally agree with that-- I mean the guy has never looked back from winning the national championship and changed the entire Bengal organization.

 

I would say if Burrow wins the Super Bowl this season (which I now believe will happen), we can elevate him to the best QB in the NFL. Or at least into a tie with Mahomes for the best QB in the NFL. 

2 minutes ago, Winterweatherlover said:

Agree the cmc is out to lunch imo, the nam probably is too. 

And if a compromise between those models happens (kind of what like GFS is showing), we'll probably get no accumulation. The snow would have to come in like a wall and be heavy to get accumulations in this situation. Light to moderate snow falling with temps above freezing and a warm ground won't cut it.  If that happens, NYC's record will probably be broken. 

Starting to see some flakes mixing in with the rain now. Who cares about non accumulating wet snow though. 

10 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

The Ukie looks like the RGEM/CMC now and the GFS cut back

Yep you have to go to extreme northwest NJ to get snow on the UKMET now. I'm sure NAM and Euro will come to reality soon. We're not getting a few inches of snow with the low tracking that far west and not much cold air in place. 

6 minutes ago, binbisso said:

The rgem can be warm at times. Like today. It's snowing already here in Lower  Westchester and the rgem up to 12z today had me as all rain. Maybe it will be right for Wednesday but it is wrong today 

RGEM was much closer to reality than NAM for today in the longer range though. Early NAM runs had this area getting a snowstorm while RGEM was all rain. RGEM ended up being right about it being all rain here. I don't see anyone getting the several inches of snow today that the early NAM runs had. NAM was WAY off. 

12z GFS gives us about an inch of snow before the rain. It's going to have to snow heavily to give us an inch or so of snow though. Light to moderate won't cut it with temps above freezing and a warm ground. Even if RGEM is wrong about holding it back and no snow, I still wouldn't be surprised if it's just some wet snow falling that doesn't accumulate and the NYC record gets broken. 

40 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

The differences between the NAM and RGEM for Wednesday are laughable

RGEM has been an excellent model, so it's hard for me to get interested in wednesday as long as RGEM doesn't want anything to do with it. NAM is such a crazy model and has been terrible, so I'm assuming it's going way overboard for wednesday. Even the 3km NAM doesn't look anything like the regular NAM. 

Just now, MJO812 said:

Baseball > football

They're both great. 

1 hour ago, Sampson said:

Can’t recall who, but the WFAN dude who was on from like 2 to 8 yesterday was out of his mind hyping up the Giants. He was basically calling them the favorites. SMH 

The Giants deserve credit for playing very well, but they were playing the worst 13 win team ever last week. The Vikings had many games where they just barely beat mediocre to bad teams during the season. They were actually -3 on point differential during the season, so obviously they were extremely lucky to win 13 games. No surprise that they were 1 and done in the playoffs. 

14 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Every model has some front end but nothing impressive 

Not the RGEM. It just came in warm with no snow for us. Starts us out as rain. Remember what NAM did at hour 84 for tonight's storm. It started out showing us getting a snowstorm, while RGEM was very warm and all rain. RGEM ended up schooling NAM on tonight's storm, just like it has schooled NAM on most events the last few years. I'm guessing RGEM will be right again and we get no measurable snow wednesday. 

I'm not saying we can completely rule out the possibility of getting a small front end like some other models have. Is it possible to get an inch of slop that quickly gets washed away by the heavy rain wednesday night? Sure. But I think it's more likely that we'll get no accumulation. Temps are going to be above freezing, the ground is warm and the precip is coming in during the afternoon hours. It's going to have to snow heavily for a couple hours to get a decent coating on colder surfaces with that bad setup. Not impossible but knowing how everything else has ended up this winter, I'm guessing no accumulation. 

Back to warm temps and rain at the end of the month on the Euro. So much for our better pattern late in the month. Nothing ever works out this winter. 

Time to enjoy this big football weekend and not waste any more time looking at these hopeless model runs. 

2 minutes ago, Winterweatherlover said:

Let alone the fact every model has NYC at around 35-36 at the start of the storm, thats not a signal for accumulating snow midday.  Depends also if it comes in strung out and messy or like a wall, like a wall would provide some evaporational cooling. 

I agree. I would be very skeptical of any model run that gives us an inch or so of front end snow. With the temps and warm ground, it would probably be just a little non accumulating wet snow during the afternoon. 

2 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

The Euro also cut back the front-end snow for Wednesday. Most likely….probably still enough for something measurable in NYC to not break the record, it looks minuscule but may be enough

Yeah Euro and CMC both say we have a shot at breaking the record. Hardly any front end snow on those models. 

12z Euro has hardly any front end snow for us. Maybe a slushy coating on colder surfaces at best, and then heavy rain wednesday night. 

35 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Yup. Going to get something Wednesday 

Maybe an inch of slop that quickly gets washed away by rain. 12z CMC and GFS say it won't even be that much. 

The models also give us some rain at the end of the month, the time period in which we were supposed to be in a cold window. All you can do is laugh at this point. This winter is that bad. 

1 minute ago, EastonSN+ said:

Maybe north and west does ok?

Keep in mind that's a 10:1 ratio map. A Kuchera ratio map would show quite a bit less, since snow ratios won't be good with this storm.