winterwx21

1 hour ago, wxtrix said:

not exercising doesn't spread the disease.

not wearing masks and not social distancing do.

this is a spurious comparison that makes no sense.

I'm talking about things that should be done to not have as bad of a pandemic. If most people were normal weight and in good shape, there would be much less hospitalizations and deaths. Of course mask wearing and social distancing results in much less hospitalizations and deaths. Yes they are very different approaches, but both work well. Both should be preached.

5 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said:

I think your point is well taken from an individual risk standpoint. You could potentially reduce your risk a bit by losing a bit of weight and exercising. The idea that we can exercise our way out of a pandemic though seems pretty tough, though. 

Yeah I don't think we could exercise our way out of the pandemic completely, but we could make the pandemic less severe if most people improved their health through exercise. Which is why I feel health authorities should be pushing the exercise point as much as they push the mask wearing/social distancing point, but unfortunately you don't hear them do that much. Unfortunately there are a lot of people that don't realize that you can reduce risk through an exercise program.

15 minutes ago, Wmsptwx said:

Lol. My marathon runner cousin was winded walking up steps five months after having covid and is continually having issue after issue with lungs. Dying is not the only deleterious aspect of covid.

There are always exceptions, and obviously your cousin is one unfortunately. But the overwhelming majority of healthy althletes that get Covid get mild symptoms or no symptoms at all. Look at all the baseball and football players that have tested positive. Almost all have had very mild symptoms or no symptoms. I am a runner with an elite athlete heart (resting heart rate of 36) and had Covid back in April. All I had was a scratchy throat, slight headache and small amount of congestion for 3 days. Doctor said being in great shape is what caused it to be so mild for me. You greatly increase the chance of being a very mild case by being in great shape, but of course there will always be some unlucky exceptions like your cousin. I hope he gets better very soon.

29 minutes ago, South Shore Slop said:

If 75% of the population is overweight, then if all things were equal, 75% of hospitalizations would consist of overweight patients. So that 85% figure isn't that much of an outlier...

The exact number for the US population being overweight is 72%. If you look at this study, 85% of hospitalized people under 50 were overweight compared to 54% of people over age 70. The number is much lower for older people because many older people have underlying health conditions that put them at higher risk, despite what their weight is. So the point of the study is that the protective benefit of being younger is lost if you're overweight or obese. But of course people can reduce their chance of having a severe problem with Covid even as they get older through an exercise program, which reduces underlying health conditions like hypertension and heart disease. The statistics are overwhelming in showing that most people that die from the virus have underlying health conditions, so eating healthy and exercising is critical to reduce the risk.

Don't know how many people here saw this, but about a week ago there was a study from UT Southwestern that showed that 85% of hospitalized Covid-19 patients under the age of 50 in the US are either overweight or obese...

https://medicalxpress.com/news/2020-11-overweight-obese-younger-people-greater.html

For awhile the CDC has been talking about how much worse Covid-19 is for overweight individuals, but this study shows that it's especially important for younger folks. The protective effect of being young is completely lost if you're overweight or obese. It's VERY important to get this message out there. Changing to a healthier diet and exercising a lot can mean the difference between being a mild case or ending up in the hospital and at risk of death.

We know the United States has a terrible obesity epidemic. A staggering three quarters of Americans are either overweight or obese. This is a big reason why the pandemic has been much worse in the United States than most other countries. The other big reason, of course, is our idiot President encouraging his followers to not take the virus seriously and not wear masks.

But back to the overweight/obesity issue. Imagine how many less hospitalizations and deaths we'd have if the majority of people kept their weight down down through exercise and better diet. We know this virus preys upon overweight people. I think so many health experts in this country have been doing a bad job getting the message out there that HEALTH (diet and exercise to achieve normal weight and reduce underlying health conditions like hypertension, heart disease and diabetes) is absolutely critical in fighting back against this pandemic. Of course mask wearing and social distancing is critical, but I feel that getting into good shape to reduce the chance of having a severe problem if you catch the virus is just as important. Very important to get this message out there.

16 hours ago, Allsnow said:

Anyone fishing? Going out tomorrow for striped bass. 

Just amazing weather for these outdoor activities. I'm not into fishing, but I do a lot of deer hunting. This weather has been incredible for the bow hunting season!

Looking like a very long stretch of days with high temps well into the 60s, starting on thursday. No sign of any cool shot for a long time. November looking like a warm month. Great for late season outdoor activities. I agree with Allsnow. Let the cold wait until December when there's a better chance it will matter as far as snow chances. 

Really warm pattern starting next thursday. We might not be done with 70 degrees, but mid 60s at least.

50 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Next weeks cold shot looking brief but strong on the eps. 

Yeah after the brief cold shot monday into tuesday, we quickly bounce back to 60 degrees wednesday and that looks like the start of a prolonged warmer than normal pattern.

5 hours ago, bluewave said:

The Euro finally came north with the heavy rain potential from Zeta later in the week.This is followed by possibly the first 30s of the season for NYC around the end of the month. Then temperatures quickly warm across the US to start November.

 

Yeah after the heavy rain from the remnants of the tropical system and cold shot at the end of the week that could give us our first freeze, it's looking like an extended warm pattern in early November. Week of November 2nd should be well above normal temps.

16 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

It’s probably the only thing keeping the dish network in business 

Actually it's DirecTV, not dish network.

3 hours ago, tim said:

...was hoping to watch the chiefs @ denver broncos (forecast call for snow and temps in the low teens)..

but no.. FOX/CBS have different games on..bummer!

If you're a big NFL fan, I highly recommend getting the Sunday Ticket. It's great being able to watch any game you want. Looking forward to that Chiefs-Broncos game today.

Everyone talking about the humidity and yes it's high for this time of year, but it's still nothing compared to the type of humidity we get in the summer when we have oppressive dewpoints in the 70s. Everyone is different, but to me a dewpoint of 64 doesn't feel bad at all. The humidity doesn't start feeling uncomfortable to me until the dewpoint gets to the low 70s. I went for a 7 mile run last night and didn't feel the 64 dewpoint one bit. In fact I liked it because it was nice that it felt warm enough out to be able to run with just a t-shirt on at night this time of year.

45 minutes ago, uncle W said:

the three la nina years from 1973-75 featured some late fall warmth...it hit 77 on 11/15/73...81 on 11/1/74 and 78 on 11/4/75...in 1950 (another la nina year) it was 84 on the 1st and 83 on the 2nd...with the ao and nao going positive in the long run I can see temps hitting 75-80 again...

I think 75 to 80 is a good possibility for this week. Maybe not quite to 80, but I think there's a good chance my area will hit 77 or 78 wednesday or thursday this week. Great October weather!

2 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Yep, looks like a nice stretch of winter weather for the upper Midwest. Minnesota should have a big winter again this year. 
 

I have no use for a cold pattern for us. It’s just a waste, save it for December 

Completely agree. Hopefully the warm pattern will last a long time this Fall to keep the growing season going and for outdoor activities like hiking, leaf raking and outdoor dining. Then hopefully it will flip to a colder pattern to get some snow in December.

5 hours ago, Allsnow said:

36 

36 was the low here too. As expected, everything in the vegetable garden is just fine. And now no frost/freeze in sight for a long time as we go into a very warm pattern.

44 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Maybe not.  I'm in the Poconos right now and there was a big frost here last night but nothing died.  I think you need it to get to 28 or lower for a few hours to have a killing freeze unless you're talking about really sensitive plants like tomatoes.  

 

Yeah, I've always noticed that a little frost doesn't do much damage to the vegetable garden. It usually takes an actual freeze to end the growing season. We have a frost advisory here and the temp could get down to about 36 tonight, but I'm not too worried. My pole lima beans are producing like crazy right now, and I'm hoping they can keep going for at least 2 more weeks. Tomatoes, peppers and eggplants are still producing decently too. The light frost threat tonight shouldn't be a problem.

39 minutes ago, SACRUS said:

That 10/24 - 10/28 period could see some wild weather if the long range guidance progs are correct, not before about 7 - 8 days of warmth with bif ridge along the EC.

Yeah, next week looking like an amazing week with that ridge. 70 degree weather all week. Could be the last week of the season for outdoor activities in consistently warm temps.

Looking like high temps upper 60s to around 70 all next week. Very mild pattern except for a brief cool shot at the end of this week.

Looks as if this is mainly a morning event monday? NAM is showing very heavy rain during the morning, but only a little light rain during the afternoon.

37 minutes ago, SACRUS said:

59 and sunny.  Clouds should dissipate in WNJ / EPA.  Sunny and dry the next few days with temps near normal through Wed (10/7).  Thu and Fri still look chilly and possible first frosts and freezes for many who didnt get there in late September (19-22).  Beyoond there the weekend looks warm and just need to watch any tropical moisture making it.  Overall long range looking warmer than normal.  We'll see when the switch to wet occurs beacuse odd are its coming..

It looks as if you'll have to go well to the north and west to see frost with the late week cool shot. Lows here are expected to be in the low-mid 40s. Nothing to write home about for October. Then a mild pattern for awhile, as you mentioned. So thankfully crops will be safe for awhile. My vegetable garden is still producing very well.

31 minutes ago, SACRUS said:

73/ 68 cloudy off a low of 61.  Front nearby with showers into PA.  Clouds and rain next 36 hours with areas in the >1 inch range later on Wednesday (first measurable rain since 9/11 three weeks ago .  Cooler air reinforced with another front Friday some showers and light rain, again airmass is not as cool as the 9/19 - 9/22 airmass.  Trouh deepens again ealry next week Mon (10/5  and Tue 10/6 with more rain.  Cooler air 10/5 - 10/7 or 8 before a potential major more sustained warmup.  Initially yesterday seemed like the warmest day till next year but may need to rethink that for the 10/10 and beyond timeframe.  Also cant rule out southeast tropics in the same timeframe..

This thing is moving very quickly ... the rain is going to be ending early in the morning tomorrow. So I'm not sure where you're getting the 36 hours. It isn't even going to be 24 hours.

23 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Up until last night there was a 2nd round of rain into Thursday that the models have since lost

There were hints that this would happen well before last night. NAM has been showing the rain ending early wednesday for several runs before now.

1 hour ago, Stormlover74 said:

Seems like it's turning into an 8 to 12 hour event and outta here by midday Wed 

Yeah that's what NAM and some other models are showing. I just mentioned this to Sacrus in the september thread because I don't understand why some keep talking about rain into thursday. It looks as if the sun will come out wednesday afternoon and the rain will be long gone by thursday. It's a tuesday night into wednesday morning rain event.

1 hour ago, SACRUS said:

72/67 cloudy and muggy.  Should hopefully get into the sun for a period this afternoon and pish temps into the 80s and perhaps the warmest day till next year is upon us.  Tue - Thu front slowly comes through with wave of low pressure bringing some heavy rains (>1 inch liekly and more like 1 - 3 inches widespread)  Wed into Thursday.  The front finally clears THursday.  Cooler air will arrive Oct 2 and last through the first week.  Another strong trough and ULL looks to swing through early next week Oct 6th one a stronger push of cool.

 

Beyond there 10/7 warmup looks to push into the east for a period.  West coast ridge weakens and heights come up in the east.

9/28 - 9/29: Warmer +6 to +8

9/30 - 10/1 : Rain 1 - 3 inches

10/2 - 10/6 : Cool comes generally -4 to -6, coldest looks 10/4 - 10/6 perhaps left older cold 10/7

10/7 - beynond : warmup looking possible.
 

I keeping seeing some saying rain into thursday but NAM has rain over by midday wednesday and then sun coming out wednesday afternoon. This is looking more like a tuesday night into wednesday morning rain event.