winterwx21

1 minute ago, LibertyBell said:

I mean a coating can easily still be a Trace

We had that in December

 

I think of a coating as the ground being whitened by a quarter to half inch of snow. That's what I mean when I say a coating. 

9 minutes ago, Winterweatherlover said:

It was overdone but RGEM seemed to be kind of right again as now almost all models have some light snow in our region tonight. 

The 12z models seem to be focusing on eastern Long Island. Maybe an inch or two out there, but everywhere has a decent shot at a coating. Good chance the snowless streak finally ends tonight. 

1 hour ago, Dark Star said:

Does a warmer winter have any effect on the insect population, like gnats and mosquitoes?  Are there any general guidlines on how cold it has to be to reduce the mosquito population?  Some mosquitoes were flying around my car two weeks ago in Linden NJ.

I was deer hunting yesterday, and had lots of bugs flying around my face when I was up in the tree stand. Crazy stuff for the end of January. 

1 hour ago, SnowGoose69 said:

This may be another case of 200-250 jet inducing an area of snow.  The HRRR has sometimes done a good job of seeing these events 36-48 here when other guidance is all over the place or showing nothing.  It won't be a big event but it probably has decent potential to break the snowless streak

Yeah I see even 12z GFS now develops a little band of snow that drops a little half inch coating across northern NJ wednesday morning. Very minor, but it's looking more likely that we'll get a little something to finally end NYC's no measurable snow streak. 

1 hour ago, SnowGoose69 said:

 

The 12Z HRRR now looks like the RGEM at 48...not anywhere near as north but basically worlds different than the NAM which at 12Z through 30 appears it won't bit yet

12z RGEM backed down somewhat, but it does still give the area a coating to 1 inch. You mentioned the HRRR and it does give us a coating of snow tuesday night as well. Not looking great, but the fact that the HRRR is seeing a little snow for us keeps this alive even though the RGEM backed down somewhat on the 12z run. 

Sad that this potential minor event is looking like our only chance. The pattern for February looks terrible after the brief arctic shot. If we don't get an inch wednesday morning, there is going to be the real threat of getting to late February without even an inch of snow. Worst winter ever. 

12 hours ago, Stormlover74 said:

Forky hates sports ball 

What a way to spend a sunday evening, giving a bunch of posts weenies because he hates that other people enjoy watching football. Once he actually said that pro sports should be banned, lol. 

21 minutes ago, Rjay said:

It wasn't just that call though which was a clear penalty.  But they just need to let that go in that moment.  

I agree. Not only should they have let that call go because a trip to the Super Bowl was on the line, but some other terrible calls against the Bengals. A shame when bad officiating has such an impact on the outcome. Sometimes officials just let players play and don't throw many flags in huge games. Too bad that wasn't the case tonight. 

1 minute ago, eduggs said:

I really hope it happens as it would be nice to wake up to a little snow on the ground even though most of us will be sleeping during any falling flakes.

Temps should be at or slightly below freezing during that period, which is a plus. On the negative side, models show only weak lift in the snow growth zone. The UK, ICON, and RGEM have a little snow, although the RGEM has been shifting southward for a few runs. The EC and GFS, as well as their ensembles, are suspiciously dry.

Yeah for all of the other events this month, NYC had no chance because it was too warm. At least it feels as if we have a chance with this one because it will be cold enough. It just a matter of getting a little precip in here.

I haven't even seen a dusting of snow this winter, so seeing an inch or two on the ground would be a nice change. I'm rooting for it. Hopefully RGEM will score another victory. 

Just now, Rtd208 said:

One inch of snow in a winter like this is like a blizzard in a good winter around here.

Yep. Sad that a 1 to 2 inch snow event would excite me, but it's the only possibilty we have right now in this joke of a winter. 

9 minutes ago, eduggs said:

0z GEFS and 18z EPS are essentially dry through next weekend. Hard to go against it. With tightly spaced Isohypses, fast flow, and an extremely unfavorable and suppressive orientation of the approaching PV, there doesn't seem to be much wiggle room to allow precipitation. 

I guess predawn Wed still offers some fleeting hope of a coating. But this marks yet another week of virtually nothing to track.

UKMET just came north with the wednesday morning light snow. Gives most of the area about an inch. So at least the RGEM isn't completely alone, and the fact that the RGEM has been the best model this winter gives us some hope. 

1 hour ago, Rjay said:

Awful officiating.  Just way too involved in the outcome. 

Just horrible to have a game decided on a personal foul like that. Extremely unlikely that Butker would have been able to make a 56 yard FG in that bitter cold weather, so it very likely would have been overtime if not for that 15 yard penalty.

While I think the officials should not have let a flag decide a championship game on a small shove out of bounds, Ossai does deserve a lot of blame for an incredibly stupid play. Absolutely no reason to push Mahomes out of bounds and risk a critical penalty. I never understand why some players push guys that are going out of bounds. It serves no purpose. We saw Osaai crying for a long time after the game. He felt terrible that he cost his team a chance to go to the Super Bowl.

A shame to have a game decided that way, but Mahomes again showed why he's the best QB in football.  He really put it all on the line with that run on the bad ankle, and it's amazing that he was able to play that great on a sprained ankle. 

10 minutes ago, Brasiluvsnow said:

Eagles have gotten every call including that 4th down non catch on their first td drive,,,,,once Purdy went down the 9ers had very little chance,,,,that said Eagles IMO will not beat either team from the AFC again in IMO it will be the Bengals---now the only question remaining is " will it ever snow this winter ? "

Terrible job by the 49ers not challenging that play on Philly's first TD drive. 

10 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Nam went the opposite way. I wouldn't discount some snow around that time 

Yeah I think it's the best chance for our area to finally see a little accumulating snow this winter. RGEM didn't go too far south ... it has us on the edge of the accumulating snow. 

1 hour ago, Stormlover74 said:

Blowout coming

The 49ers were doing a great job hanging in there until Johnson handed the Eagles the TD with that horrendous fumble. You could see the 49ers would've had a good chance of winning the game with Purdy. A shame when a huge injury ruins a huge game like this. 

13 minutes ago, Winterweatherlover said:

Euro not on board for Tue night-Wed.

Only the RGEM/CMC have it but right now I trust those models more than any others so hopefully they don't let us down. 

UKMET also shows a little snow tuesday night into wednesday morning. About an inch just south of the city. Hopefully some other models will come aboard soon. 

Euro also misses us to the south with thursday's wave. We have 2 waves to watch ... hopefully one of them will come far enough north to end our snow drought. This winter has been so horrible that getting a little 1 to 2 inch snow event would excite me. 

2 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Ukie has a very light event mostly under an inch city on south

Yeah I just noticed that too. Good to see another model showing some interest. Hopefully Euro will show something as well. 

56 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

1 to 3" type event, more to the south. Let's see. At this point nam has nothing but rgem has been much better of late 

Looks like our best chance so far this winter. Need to see some other models come aboard, but RGEM is definitely the model we want in our corner. It has been the model that has been down on every threat when the NAM has been hyping, so it's interesting to see it being the model that's giving us snow. Hopefully RGEM will score another victory. 

15 minutes ago, Winterweatherlover said:

RGEM consistent showing snow Tue night-Wed morning. 

Yep it's showing a nice little 1 to 3 inch snow event. NAM and GFS don't have it, but RGEM has been the best model this winter so that gives us some hope. Hopefully our snow drought finally ends tuesday night, but we need to see some other models come aboard. 

0z RGEM has steady light accumulating snow tuesday night into wednesday morning. That gets my attention since RGEM has been so good.

Overall the models have been all over the place with these little waves for mid to late week. Impossible to predict right now, but it seems as if we have a shot of seeing something in the tuesday to friday time period when we have cold air in place. 

Euro misses us to the south with that little thursday wave that GFS gives us a little snow with. Precip almost makes it up to southern NJ on the Euro. I think this wave is our best chance so far this winter to give NYC a little accumulating snow, but of course we haven't had any decent chances up to this point so that's not saying much. 

1 hour ago, Stormlover74 said:

Upper 40s already. Depending on clouds should overperform today 

Yep it just hit 54 here. 

1 hour ago, MJO812 said:

Some snow on the gfs for next week

Yeah GFS gives us about an inch thursday morning. CMC is well to the south. GFS brings another storm the end of next weekend, but the problem is the cold air is pulling out at that point. So I think it's important for us to get something mid to late week when we have cold air in place. This looks like our best chance for the NYC area to finally get a little accumulating snow this winter. 

2 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

In New York City, winters are warming, the measurable snow season is shrinking in length, and the average number of events is falling. However, the benefits of added moisture (warm air holds more moisture) has contributed to rising seasonal snowfall as the average event is now larger. There will come a time when the warming is sufficiently great to offset the benefits of added moisture. That process is underway in Washington, DC, but not Philadelphia or New York. It could be another decade or two before such a trend develops in Philadelphia and New York City (an additional 1.0°-1.5° of winter warming is likely needed if Washington's data is representative).

As we move toward that inflection point, one will probably see greater variability between high snow and very low snowfall winters, the latter will often be exceptionally warm even against the 1991-2020 reference period.

Good to hear that you believe that it could be quite awhile before our average snowfall starts going down. Thanks as always for your insight, Don. Your posts are great. 

46 minutes ago, Winterweatherlover said:

12z euro unleashes the artic next weekend 

Yep but a brief arctic shot. The warmth comes back after the weekend. 

5 minutes ago, Winterweatherlover said:

Euro is way north for next week. 

It gets some light snow to us wednesday night (about an inch), but then changes us over to mix/rain on thursday. So you have to go northwest to see a few inches of snow on this run.