winterwx21

5 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

10-1 maps 3-5 for 95. 4-8 western areas 

It'll be interesting to see if Euro comes in warmer like some of the other 12z models did, but we still have a long way to go before we figure this out. 

UKMET just came in quite a bit warmer, similar to the CMC. It now has the NYC area on the borderline instead of the big hit it showed last night. 

2 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

We have a small window near the city between the storm being too warm/NW and weak sauce/SE. It’s possible the storm goes through those goalposts but it’ll be tough. 

Yeah a true thread the needle as we've been saying. Let's hope we get lucky. We certainly got lucky with many thread the needle storms during the great run of snowfall winters we had before the last few years. You never know. 

2 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

1-3 is realistic 

Yep I think that would be a good early call for NYC if you had to make one, but it's very early to be making a call. A long way to go. 

1 minute ago, Allsnow said:

988 east of acy big hit western areas 

Yep but not much for NYC. It's quite a bit warmer than the 0z run. 

CMC warmer. It has NYC right near the mixing line most of the storm. 

5 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

yes as I mentioned earlier have to keep an open mind this far in advance and Dr. No might come along after midnight and spoil the party like a couple of days ago - and in another day or so the early mesoscale model crowd will join the discussion.....

Yeah and when we start looking at NAM tomorrow, we'll be talking about how NAM isn't accurate in the long range and we have to wait awhile. We have a long way to go before we get a good idea of what this storm is gonna be like for us. 

3 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

So we went from suppression to being too amped.

I thought this was going to be suppressed due to the 50 50 and ridge breaking down. 

We knew that the trough out west was gonna be a problem. That along with a borderline airmass in place to begin with meant this was a real thread the needle situation. Doesn't mean the NYC area can't get lucky, but it's only a slight chance. We'll still track it as long as we have a chance, but I'm not optimistic. 

7 minutes ago, mannynyc said:

If these trend persist this will be a huge victory for the Canadien model which has been the north solution for days 

The Canadian has been good with winter storm threats the last few years. A much improved model. 

Good to see the Euro trend colder and put us near edge here, but 6 days to go is a very long time considering the accuracy of models at this range. Who knows at this point, but at least it looks like our first legitimate threat. 

Anyway I say it's time to take a break from the models for a little while and enjoy the  holiday weekend. I hope everyone has a great New Year's Eve and New Year's day. Another great food holiday. Football today, but I also love watching The Twilght Zone Marathon. That has become a big New Year's tradition.  Happy New Year! Hopefully after the holiday this winter storm threat for next weekend will look better as we get to a more realistic range midweek. 

9 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Euro wed night 

Would be nothing during the day with Wednesday's temps, but maybe we can pull off a slushy coating since it's happening at night. 

1 hour ago, jm1220 said:

It’s a threat in the board-saying again. But I’d rather be on the northern edge of the snow hoping for a north trend to get in the game vs right on the R/S line at this point. We’ve seen over and over what normally happens with these as get closer to game time. I’d say we need the 1/4 event to be stronger so it can form a 50/50 and block the 1/7 event from trying to cut or hug the coast. Any stronger storm without a block to force it south will try to cut north and pump the SE ridge ahead of it. 

As WX/PT said in the December thread, it's a real thread the needle situation. Right now I would lean towards mostly rain, but at least we have a shot. Nice to have something to track. 

A beautiful 55 degrees here right now, but it looks like a pretty long stretch of slightly above average temps (highs in the 40s) after today. Cool but probably not cold enough for snow near the coast. Looks like an annoying pattern. Since it's January and not a torch we can't rule out a thread the needle event, so of course we'll keep an eye on things. Not looking good though. 

Merry Christmas and Happy Holidays! I hope everyone who celebrates has a great holiday tomorrow with family, friends and of course all the great food. Dessert is one of my favorite parts of the holiday. Today I'm busy making chocolate chip cookies, coconut custard pie and double banana cream pie. Looking forward to tomorrow! Merry Christmas! 

Too bad we don't have any snow threats during the holidays, but the pattern for early January looks interesting as many have pointed out. Hopefully we'll have something interesting to track around New Year's time. 

6 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Yup. Back edge wind non existent currently 

I know it was a lot of rain, but this was kind of a meh event to me. I'm always excited by t-storms in the summer, but a big rainstorm in December doesn't do much for me. Hopefully we'll see a nice winter storm in January. 

3.58 here so far. Moderate rain right now. Back edge moving into western NJ, so it's almost over. Haven't had any significant wind. 

Beautiful today. 55 degrees here. Great for late season outdoor activities. It feels more like November bow hunting than December gun hunting weather ..... love it! 

14 minutes ago, lee59 said:

Looks like the models trending a little chillier over the next week or two.

It does look like a decent brief cold shot for Wednesday night into Thursday. We might struggle to hit 40 on Thursday, but we'll be right back to highs near 50 for Friday and the weekend.

Overall it looks like a lot of average to slightly above average temps for the rest of December, and a pretty dry pattern. Boring times ahead. Looks as if it will be awhile before we have anything interesting to talk about.

Hopefully we'll see significant changes for January. In the meantime at least we have football and the holiday season to enjoy. 

On 12/8/2023 at 7:37 AM, Allsnow said:

Anywho…close the shade for a while on cold/snow in our location. Hopefully Sunday is interesting with the wind. Looks like another sloppy jets game 

This rainy weather really helped the Jets today. As you said frustrating year with your Jets, but both Wilsons played great today. 

2 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

A pleasant 50 now

Yesterday a few degrees below the forecasted high because it was cloudy, and today a few degrees above the forecasted high because it's sunny. We're probably gonna hit 52. 

55 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Yeah, it’s just that the colder winter months since the 15-16 super El Niño have become few and far between. I was excited about the cold January 2022 pattern but disappointed for western sections since the lack of a decent -AO kept the best snows near the coast. Late January into February 2021 was also a great pattern. Allsnow did a great job highlighting the December 2020 snowstorm potential from later in November 2020. So not sure why people are giving him so many weenies. He loves a great pattern as much as I do. And will highlight it when it’s actually about to occur. But when we see such a hostile Pacific like we have now it can’t be ignored. 

You and Allsnow absolutely nailed last winter. I love reading both of your posts and learn a lot from them. Keep up the great work! 

Still only 36 degrees here. We're not gonna make it to the forecasted high of 40, but no surprise today is underperforming due to the cloudy skies. Wintry day with the flurries.

Probably won't see flakes again for awhile. Euro looks ugly out to day 10 ... doesn't look good for winter lovers. Hopefully things will change late month. 

Had some flurries here. 35 degrees right now. 

23 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

48 is average at ewr.  Already at 52

Tomorrow looks average then 2 days below before back above and torchy this weekend 

We'll probably be in the 60s on Sunday ahead of the storm. 

12 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Keep on going

Allsnow would love to see a snowy winter but he's just being honest about what he's seeing. Remember he was great last winter. He absolutely nailed it. He knows what he's talking about.