winterwx21
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Posts posted by winterwx21
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13 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:
Heavy snow but at times it appears to be mixing
Sleet starting to mix back in here now too. We're almost done but we're gonna end up close to 2 inches ... pretty nice. As you said, HRRR did a good job this afternoon showing the snow hanging on longer. It was too warm last night into this morning, but its strength is supposed to be very short range so it did its job.
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1.5" here and it has changed back to all snow. Would love to get to 2 inches, which is the high end of what I was expecting.
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9 minutes ago, Allsnow said:
Mixing line sinking back south for now
It's kinda interesting. You can see the mix line making more progress north through Somerset County but it's getting beaten down a bit in Middlesex County. I'm in northwest Middlesex County not too far from the Somerset border, so that's why I'm seeing some sleet mixing in now.
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2 minutes ago, Allsnow said:
Mixing line sinking back south for now
More and more sleet mixing in here though. It's a snow-sleet mix currently.
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It's down to light snow here now, and a few sleet pellets mixed in.
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Very heavy snow here now, in the final minutes before the sleet hits.
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A solid half inch here and the snow is really coming down. I see the mix line is getting into central Middlesex County now, so we probably won't have snow too much longer. We should be able to get close to 1 inch though.
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1 minute ago, Stormlover74 said:
Snowing nicely here in NP. I'm on 22 and it's just wet but sticking elsewhere. Hrrr keeps me snow til at least 7. We'll see. If that's the case 2 to 3 is a possibility
We have a nice little quarter inch coating here and it's snowing moderately. The mix line is moving up into southern Middlesex County now, so I'd be surprised if we get to 3. I'm thinking more like 1, but 2 isn't out of the question. We'll see.
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34 degrees with moderate snow here, and it's starting to dust the grassy areas. Looks as if we could get a half inch to an inch on colder surfaces here. A minor event here, but I hope folks to the north and west enjoy the snowstorm!
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4 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:
The nam is on its own and the others will need to be 2 to 3 degrees too warm if we're going to see more than 1 to 2"
Yep. A coating to 2 inches on colder surfaces is my call, but it wouldn't surprise me if we see no accumulation at all.
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On the 0z runs the HRRR and RGEM are too warm for northern Middlesex County, but the NAM models say we get some snow. I go into tomorrow expecting little to nothing, but hoping maybe we can squeeze out a slushy inch or two on colder surfaces. Very close call for this area. The central part of Middlesex County looks like all rain while just slightly to the north and west looks like several inches of snow. Right on the borderline here.
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Just now, Stormlover74 said:
I'm thinking it could be close to last year's biggest storm. I got 2.4 the end of February mostly on colder surfaces. Though it was even warmer that day before the precip moved in
HRRR is in its long range, but right now it's showing about that for our area. Let's hope we can squeeze out a couple inches.
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1 minute ago, Stormlover74 said:
It got a little better for the city/95 corridor folks. Took me from under an inch to 3 at 10:1 of course. Maybe I can squeeze out 2
It was good to see RGEM improve slightly. Our area is on the edge and this looks like what we've been thinking all along -- maybe a slushy inch or two on colder surfaces for our area. Maybe. Wouldn't be surprised if it's just a coating.
RGEM has a bit of a warm bias, but as usual it outperformed the NAM big-time. We've seen that so many times in recent years.
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6 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:
Warmer
We've known the coast has a good chance of seeing very little, but this Euro run is so bad that it has almost nothing for our area. Hopefully things will look a little better tomorrow, but it's hard to be optimistic right now with Euro and RGEM so warm. NAM is probably off its rocker like we've seen so many times.
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RGEM pretty much nothing for our area. As usual a huge model battle still going on 48 hours before a storm. Hopefully we'll get a better idea tomorrow.
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7 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:
sad state of affairs when we have to hope for a couple slushly inches that will be vaporized the next day in early January lol
Very true lol. After how bad last winter was, a couple slushy inches would seem like a good event.
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27 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:
This storm seems to have everything going against it for any real accumulation at the coast. If we manage anything it will be a miracle
For our area slightly away from the coast, I'll be very happy if we can squeeze out 2 to 3 slushy inches on colder surfaces. We have a ways to go before we can be confident that even that is gonna happen though. At least the Euro got me a little more optimistic.
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1 minute ago, Allsnow said:
Snow depth 3-6 for nyc
Euro gives us a little more hope. Big model runs coming tonight.
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UKMET still too warm. Nothing at all for NYC. Maybe a slushy coating for my area, but a nice storm for NW New Jersey.
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It'll be good to get some significant cold air in here for an extended period of time in mid January. Hopefully that will give the coast a better shot at a snowstorm. Looks encouraging.
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8 minutes ago, vegan_edible said:
cmc also has flipped and flopped like no other where as the gfs has held strong with the trailing vort. lets keep expectations in check but not toss all scenarios out the window
I don't toss the GFS scenario out the window. I just said good luck, because I think it's only a slight chance of that happening. Back end snows very rarely work out for our area, and GFS isn't the model I want on my side. The other models don't save the coast with back end snow. I think the GFS will cave, but we'll hope and keep an eye on the situation. Right now I think it's more realistic to think that my area could get a slushy inch or two on the front end.
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Good luck getting back end snow to work out for our area. CMC looks nothing like that and gives NYC no snow accumulation.
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8 minutes ago, Allsnow said:
Euro more amped this run
Very little snow even for our area in Middlesex County on the Euro now. Ugly 12z runs today. We still have a ways to go, but we've known that this is a real thread the needle situation. I'm not optimistic, but still hoping we get lucky.
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Two Mdt to high impact events NYC subforum; wknd Jan 6-7 Incl OBS, and mid week Jan 9-10 (incl OBS). Total water equiv by 00z/11 general 2", possibly 6" includes snow-ice mainly interior. RVR flood potential increases Jan 10 and beyond. Damaging wind.
in New York City Metro
Posted
I was just outside and some rain is starting to mix in here now. Only a few flakes with sleet and a little rain. Temp up a degree to 34. Looks as if I'm done with accumulation here.
2 inches here. Glad we got to the high end of my prediction. Beautiful scene out there. A couple inches is a small event obviously, but it's much better than getting nothing.