winterwx21

Very heavy snow here now, in the final minutes before the sleet hits. 

A solid half inch here and the snow is really coming down. I see the mix line is getting into central Middlesex County now, so we probably won't have snow too much longer. We should be able to get close to 1 inch though. 

1 minute ago, Stormlover74 said:

Snowing nicely here in NP. I'm on 22 and it's just wet but sticking elsewhere. Hrrr keeps me snow til at least 7. We'll see.  If that's the case 2 to 3 is a possibility 

We have a nice little quarter inch coating here and it's snowing moderately. The mix line is moving up into southern Middlesex County now, so I'd be surprised if we get to 3. I'm thinking more like 1, but 2 isn't out of the question. We'll see. 

1 minute ago, RU848789 said:

Yikes!

Yeah it's moving north quickly. The race is on to see if we can get to an inch before it hits. 

34 degrees with moderate snow here, and it's starting to dust the grassy areas. Looks as if we could get a half inch to an inch on colder surfaces here. A minor event here, but I hope folks to the north and west enjoy the snowstorm! 

4 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

The nam is on its own and the others will need to be 2 to 3 degrees too warm if we're going to see more than 1 to 2"

Yep. A coating to 2 inches on colder surfaces is my call, but it wouldn't surprise me if we see no accumulation at all. 

On the 0z runs the HRRR and RGEM are too warm for northern Middlesex County, but the NAM models say we get some snow. I go into tomorrow expecting little to nothing, but hoping maybe we can squeeze out a slushy inch or two on colder surfaces. Very close call for this area. The central part of Middlesex County looks like all rain while just slightly to the north and west looks like several inches of snow. Right on the borderline here. 

Just now, Stormlover74 said:

I'm thinking it could be close to last year's biggest storm. I got 2.4 the end of February mostly on colder surfaces. Though it was even warmer that day before the precip moved in

HRRR is in its long range, but right now it's showing about that for our area. Let's hope we can squeeze out a couple inches. 

1 minute ago, Stormlover74 said:

It got a little better for the city/95 corridor folks. Took me from under an inch to 3 at 10:1 of course. Maybe I can squeeze out 2

It was good to see RGEM improve slightly. Our area is on the edge and this looks like what we've been thinking all along -- maybe a slushy inch or two on colder surfaces for our area. Maybe. Wouldn't be surprised if it's just a coating. 

RGEM has a bit of a warm bias, but as usual it outperformed the NAM big-time. We've seen that so many times in recent years. 

6 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Warmer

We've known the coast has a good chance of seeing very little, but this Euro run is so bad that it has almost nothing for our area. Hopefully things will look a little better tomorrow, but it's hard to be optimistic right now with Euro and RGEM so warm. NAM is probably off its rocker like we've seen so many times. 

RGEM pretty much nothing for our area. As usual a huge model battle still going on 48 hours before a storm. Hopefully we'll get a better idea tomorrow. 

7 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

sad state  of affairs when we have to hope for a couple slushly inches that will be vaporized the next day in early January lol

Very true lol. After how bad last winter was, a couple slushy inches would seem like a good event. 

27 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

This storm seems to have everything going against it for any real accumulation at the coast. If we manage anything it will be a miracle

For our area slightly away from the coast, I'll be very happy if we can squeeze out 2 to 3 slushy inches on colder surfaces. We have a ways to go before we can be confident that even that is gonna happen though. At least the Euro got me a little more optimistic. 

1 minute ago, Allsnow said:

Snow depth 3-6 for nyc 

Euro gives us a little more hope. Big model runs coming tonight. 

UKMET still too warm. Nothing at all for NYC. Maybe a slushy coating for my area, but a nice storm for NW New Jersey. 

It'll be good to get some significant cold air in here for an extended period of time in mid January. Hopefully that will give the coast a better shot at a snowstorm. Looks encouraging. 

8 minutes ago, vegan_edible said:

cmc also has flipped and flopped like no other where as the gfs has held strong with the trailing vort. lets keep expectations in check but not toss all scenarios out the window

I don't toss the GFS scenario out the window. I just said good luck, because I think it's only a slight chance of that happening. Back end snows very rarely work out for our area, and GFS isn't the model I want on my side. The other models don't save the coast with back end snow. I think the GFS will cave, but we'll hope and keep an eye on the situation. Right now I think it's more realistic to think that my area could get a slushy inch or two on the front end. 

Good luck getting back end snow to work out for our area. CMC looks nothing like that and gives NYC no snow accumulation. 

8 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Euro more amped this run 

Very little snow even for our area in Middlesex County on the Euro now. Ugly 12z runs today. We still have a ways to go, but we've known that this is a real thread the needle situation. I'm not optimistic, but still hoping we get lucky. 

5 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

10-1 maps 3-5 for 95. 4-8 western areas 

It'll be interesting to see if Euro comes in warmer like some of the other 12z models did, but we still have a long way to go before we figure this out. 

UKMET just came in quite a bit warmer, similar to the CMC. It now has the NYC area on the borderline instead of the big hit it showed last night. 

2 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

We have a small window near the city between the storm being too warm/NW and weak sauce/SE. It’s possible the storm goes through those goalposts but it’ll be tough. 

Yeah a true thread the needle as we've been saying. Let's hope we get lucky. We certainly got lucky with many thread the needle storms during the great run of snowfall winters we had before the last few years. You never know. 

2 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

1-3 is realistic 

Yep I think that would be a good early call for NYC if you had to make one, but it's very early to be making a call. A long way to go. 

1 minute ago, Allsnow said:

988 east of acy big hit western areas 

Yep but not much for NYC. It's quite a bit warmer than the 0z run. 

CMC warmer. It has NYC right near the mixing line most of the storm.