winterwx21

27 minutes ago, FPizz said:

Yup, same happening here.  My driveway is just starting to get covered as well.  I measured on the old crust just now when taking the dog out.   Picked up again here.  Maybe we can make a run at 1.5".  I don't totally blame school officials though, when they closed the forecast still said 3-5".  I think all of us knew this was 1-3 in our area.

It's crazy that schools are closed for wet pavement here. I remember when they used to wait until snow accumulated significantly on pavement before making the decision to close schools. It's ridiculous that they make the decision to close way ahead of time for what's expected to be just an advisory level event. Today they ended up closing for nothing. It's still only accumulating a little on old snow with nothing at all even on car tops. 

2 minutes ago, the_other_guy said:

This needed to happen at night for it to work

Yeah for those of us getting mostly light snow. Obviously the people in the heavier band aren't having any problems with it accumulating. 

3 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Heaviest of the day right now but will need this for an hour to get anything to stick to pavement

Yeah it just bumped up to moderate snow here too, but still struggling to accumulate even on car tops. Hopefully we can start to get a little accumulation. Sounds as if it's a completely different world for our friends just slightly to the south in Metuchen. 

Just now, Stormlover74 said:

I hate to say it but sun angle lol. Need heavier rates even with a temp of 29

Yep exactly. Obviously we need it to bump up to moderate snow to get accumulation on other surfaces (besides just old snow) during the middle of the day here. I'm surprised ... I didn't think temps/sun angle would be an issue for light snow today. 

32 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Only sticking to colder surfaces. Pavement and car just wet

Who would've thought that this steady light snow isn't even sticking to car tops. Like I just said to Allsnow, this is a real surprise. Going to be interesting to see if we can get some accumulation this afternoon. You'd think we'd be able to get a little. 

27 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Crazy . Blitzing down here. Everything is covered.

1.0 

It really is crazy. As Stormlover said, the snow isn't even sticking to the car tops here. I guess it shows that sun angle can be an issue if you only have light snow with the temp only a few degrees below freezing. I never would've imagined that we'd have non accumulating snow here today while you're getting an inch on everything just a few miles to my south. Glad you guys are getting something though ... enjoy it! Looks as if it's gonna be a bust up here in the extreme nortthern part of Middlesex County. Can't believe I'm under a WWA for 2 to 4 inches. 

1 hour ago, Stormlover74 said:

We need a positive bust for once

Let's hope. Right now I'm going with 2 inches for our area. Most of the models tonight are giving our area 1.5 to 2, and 2 seems realistic with the higher snow ratios that are expected. We just need a small bump north to get closer to 3 inches, so we'll see. 

2 hours ago, Allsnow said:

Last winter we didn’t even get a day that felt like winter 

At least we're getting a hardcore winter week -- cold all week with 2 snow events. Light snow events, but it's much better than last January when we had nothing at all. Even if tomorrow is only 2 to 3 inches (looking most likely to me right now), I'll be happy with that. Of course we'd love to see a big storm, but getting 4-5 inches of snow in a week isn't bad. Especially since it isn't melting right away. 

46 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Winter Weather Advisory
for Middlesex County

Issued by National Weather Service
Philadelphia, PA
3:16 PM EST Wed, Jan 17, 2024

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT TO 7 PM EST FRIDAY...

* WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 2 to 4 inches.

* WHERE...Portions of central, northern and northwest New Jersey and east central, northeast and southeast Pennsylvania.

* WHEN...From midnight Thursday night to 7 PM EST Friday.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous conditions could impact the morning or evening commute.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Temperatures will rapidly drop into the teens late Friday night. Any untreated roads will become icy and dangerous.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Slow down and use caution while traveling.

The latest road conditions for the state you are calling from can be obtained by calling 5 1 1.

&&
 

We probably have a better chance of getting to 3 with this one since it's all snow and better snow ratios. Not a big event obviously, but I'll gladly take it. Looking forward to Friday! 

12z RGEM has a nice event for Friday. 

29 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

1.7" up to 27 with sleet

3.9 on the season surpassing last year lol 

1.9" here. Sleet will add a little to the total, but too bad we're losing most of the rest of the storm (we might end as a little snow this afternoon) to sleet and freezing rain. Getting a couple more hours of snow mid to late morning as the intensity ramped up would have been the difference between getting 3-4 vs the 2 that we're getting.

But at least we're just about to the low end of the 2 to 4 forecast, so it isn't a bust for our area. Still a nice little event and we have more to come on Friday. This is a nice winter week and after Friday we'll already be well above what we got last winter. 

3 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Probably half inch. Steady light snow but my 2 to 4 is in jeopardy unless we don't dry slot and it snows through 7 or 8

A nice steady light powdery snow out there at 25 degrees. I just measured 0.3", but of course we have a long way to go. I just looked at RGEM and it ramps up the intensity of the snow mid morning before we go over to a wintry mix around midday. I don't think we'll have a problem getting to 3. 

Euro looks similar to the 3km NAM. We could get 4 inches here. I would go a little more conservative and stick with the 2 to 4 forecast instead of increasing it to 3 to 5,  but there definitely is good potential to hit the high end. Excited that we're looking at a decent snow event! 

You knew NAM would look much better on the 18z run lol. 

1 minute ago, Allsnow said:

You worry about the nam too much 

Everything else looks cold enough and a lot of the snow is overnight into the morning hours. Our area is looking good for a couple inches of accumulation on all surfaces. 

11 minutes ago, wdrag said:

I haven't checked but its verification last year was #2.

Also, its' steadfast performance on the previous big inland event and the current one. It's a winter very good snow model. 

 

We must disagree.  Most folks dont pay attention to the CMC... so they dont really know.

It';s how you use these models.  I'd say EC and GFS are a little shaky this coming event,   

Differing input? Go for it.

The CMC has had quite a few big victories with winter storm threats in the last few years. I trust it a lot more than GFS, that's for sure. 

5 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Half dollar size flakes easily here 

 

sticking to everything 

Just moderate here and didn't stick to anything. I guess the heaviest missed me just a few miles to the south. Glad you got to see a nice squall. 

Just now, Stormlover74 said:

Just got moderately heavy here

Yeah nice snow shower, but not accumulating with these temps. 

2 minutes ago, RU848789 said:

I'm missing something on the UK, since snowfall is 1-2" generally for Philly-NJ-NYC area, but the QPF is 0.3-0.4" and temps never really go above 32F except near the coast and soundings show the whole column under 32F for Edison and NYC, at least. It's almost like they forgot to calculate the snowfall, lol, as 0.3-0.4" QPF should be at least 3-4" of snow with <32F temps through the column.  Anyone?

 

Yeah I saw one of the snowfall panels on pivotal was missing data. The snowfall amounts are definitely a little higher than what it was showing. 

18 hours ago, Nibor said:

Don’t you like tennis? 

Forky criticizes people for liking sports, yet he was at the US Open this summer. Too funny. 

I see he actually went to the sports forum to give Rjay's wildcard round NFL picks a weenie, lol. He sure loves to troll. 

The timing certainly is good for accumulations since it's coming in overnight into early morning. We should be good for a couple inches here. 

I know we don't put a lot of stock in HRRR when it's in its long range, but it definitely looks good on the 12z run. 

Good to see Euro making slight improvements every run. Looking good for a 1 to 3 inch event, but hopefully we can keep trending better and up that to a 2 to 4 inch prediction tomorrow. 

1 minute ago, MJO812 said:

We take 

I'll gladly take an inch or two. Always the chance this could beef up some as it gets closer too. Who knows, maybe the UKMET will be right with the higher amounts but right now 1 to 2 looks like a good early call. 

Ukie just came in with a pretty nice 2 to 5 inch event. I agree with a 1 to 3 inch call right now. 

42 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

The GFS is basically the only snowless run at 00Z...just goes totally coastal dominant, even the 18z Euro did not do that so as of now the chance to end the streak does live on.  If the Euro starts going bone dry even with the WAA then its probably down to 1/20 happening

And the Euro didn't go bone dry. Not great but it has light snow Monday night. 1 to 2 inches. As you said, everything is showing snow except for GFS. We're still looking good for at least a light event.