winterwx21

1 hour ago, Allsnow said:

 

 

1.10 here so far, but it's tapering off now (will add a little more later tonight). More heavy rain to the south and east, but you can see it's heading for Long Island. The models were correct to have the heavier amounts to the east, but still a good soaking here. About what was expected with a little over an inch. 

34 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Mid 50s was my forecast and it's 61 currently

East winds seem to be putting a cap on it though. Was 61 here earlier but now down to 58. Still an overperforming beautiful day. 

Had a high temp of 69 here today. Spectacular weather ... a top 10 day of the year. I hope everyone enjoyed it since we have a rainy week coming up. 

2 minutes ago, psv88 said:

Nobody wants snow after march 1. Time for baseball, beach and boating. LFG

I'll gladly take snow through mid march, but then I don't want it anymore in late march when it's time to start gardening season.

I do think a rainstorm is MUCH more likely for the NYC area due to the warm pattern. Hard to get a snowstorm heading into mid march without much cold air to work with. However march can be a crazy month, so we can't completely rule it out. Wouldn't be shocking if we pull off wet snow. 

Good chance that tonight will be our last night well down into the 20s until next fall/winter. 

34 minutes ago, the_other_guy said:

not nearly as warm today as forecasted.

Continues the trend of the winter of the warmest departures being over the Midwest

It still hit 61 here today, but yeah not as warm as forecast due to the rain. Yesterday ended up being the warmer day thanks to more sunshine. It hit 65 here yesterday. 

1 hour ago, psv88 said:

 

 

Agreed. Senga definitely out for the year. What can you do. 

We are screwed if Senga is out for the year. Obviously having an ace at the top of the rotation is critical. Right now the hope is that he'll only miss the first month of the season, since it's a moderate strain. But you always have to worry about shoulder issues with pitchers, so who knows. Hopefully he won't have any setbacks as he's working his way back. 

If Senga only misses a month and pitches great the rest of the season, I think the Mets can compete for a playoff spot since having Diaz back at closer is a big boost. Of course that's a big IF though. Definitely worried about Senga. 

4 hours ago, MJO812 said:

Models look so ugly and boring 

Sad 

Yep after a brief minor cool shot March 1st, it looks like an extended warm pattern. Lots of 55 to 60 degree days in early March. It appears likely that we're done. Obviously we can't completely rule out the possibility of getting lucky with something in mid March, but we'd much rather have cold air in early March if we're gonna get any. Only a very slim chance that something would work out near the coast in mid to late March. 

At that point I'm moving onto the gardening season anyway. We were very lucky to get as much snow as we did in a warm winter, so I can't complain. I'm ready to move on and hope we have mild weather in late March when it's time to get the gardening season started. 

Next Wednesday looks very warm. Maybe too many clouds for 70, but at least well up into the 60s. 

1 hour ago, SnoSki14 said:

This death band did save the season from being one of the worst but it was still a pitiful winter.

Well above normal temperatures (top 5 warmest) and a couple snow events won't change that. 

D+ right now 

Unless we get a KU storm I don't see it ranking better than a C-

For me snow is the most important thing, so even if it's a warm winter it's an ok winter as long as we get average snowfall. Almost up to 20 inches for the winter here, so we're actually about normal snowfall right now. That's enough for me to bump it up to a C, but the grade will go back down a little if we don't get any more snow the rest of the winter. 

Remember we did have that period in January where we had the 2 light snow events in a week and snow stayed on the ground all week because it was so cold. So we had a very good week in January and now a great week in February. Not bad. 

1 hour ago, Allsnow said:

Unbelievable. This will raise this winter a full letter grade for me. 

Amazing how much our winter changed with this one week. About 14 inches for me between the two storms so our area went from way below average snowfall to now about average for the season. Awesome week! 

1 minute ago, NEG NAO said:

these types of storms are very difficult to predict till the last few hours prior - we could have easily missed out on the heavy band....

You would hope what is supposed to be a highly skilled short range model like HRRR would be able to pick up on something like this, but no. Late last night it was still insisting only a few inches. 

7 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

This was sort of like trying to forecast rainfall amounts in a thunderstorm except most people have no idea if they got half an inch or 1". If most people get a thunderstorm and some don't it's certainly not a bust.

But with snow if you're not in that range people will say bust. But how do you forecast for this? Most people saw 2 to 4 but some saw 3x as much nearby. You can't just say 2 to 10 or 2 to 4 with isolated amounts of 8 to 12

Crazy. Can't believe I got 8 inches here when we were only expecting a few. This winter went from being terrible to not bad in the snowfall department for our area this week. Great storm!

Just now, Allsnow said:

Flakes are huge! Best snow in years. Easily 2 inches a hour 

Wow that's awesome! It looks like you might get 6 while I get 3 to 4 up here. 

2 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Very heavy snow under this band. 3-4 already 

You have 3 inches already? Wow. I'm not up to an inch yet here. Coming down good but obviously a huge difference just a few miles to the south. 

Beautiful scene out there. Trees got coated right away but now that it has fallen below freezing the road is coated. Wish I could stay up all night to watch this, but it's time for sleep. The way this band is setting up it appears that we're looking good for at least 3 to 4. 

Really starting to pick up with that band now. 

2 minutes ago, psv88 said:

Think the heaviest stays south of the island. Congrats NJ

To me it appears that the nice band going across north-central NJ right now is heading right for the Island, and the latest HRRR is showing that happening. 

19 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Very light snow and 34

Dusting on colder surfaces now. If the latest HRRR is right, our area is heading towards about 3 inches. I'll watch for another half hour and then go to bed. The one bad thing about overnight snow is it's during sleep. I'm not gonna stay up too long for an event that's a few inches, but it'll be nice to see the snow on the ground in the morning. 

6 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Nam is very nice

3km and HRRR continue to look good on the 18z runs as well. Looking like a decent chance that our area will get 4. 

1 minute ago, jm1220 said:

It’ll be fine with accumulating snow with the airmass and dews we have. Midtown as always is a different story but will accumulate too if it’s heavy enough. 

Perfect timing for accumulations too since it's happening during the overnight to early morning. 

Glad to see this trended our way on the 12z models. 2 to 4 looks like a good call for most now. WWA for my area and as others have said, it'll likely be expanded north this afternoon. 

Lost the RGEM but gained the GFS, lol. GFS went from the worst for our area this afternoon to now the best. Gets about 3 inches up to my area now. As usual it's a bumpy ride with the models in the few days before an event. 

Right now I'd say 1 to 3 is the best forecast, but we'll see what tomorrow brings. 

6 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

 

Not sure the RGEM went south as much as it was just way drier, at least on the maps I have so far

Looks like it was both. 

1 minute ago, Stormlover74 said:

Yeah that wasn't great to see. Guess we still have tomorrow to tick north at the last minute

Yeah still enough time for a north bump. RGEM tonight looked lousy but HRRR and both NAMs looked ok, so it hasn't been a bad 0z suite so far. I'd love to see 3 to 4, but I'll be satisfied if we get 2.