winterwx21
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Everything posted by winterwx21
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NAM still not great, but slightly colder than the 12z run. Gets a little snow down to this area now. Hopefully it will continue to trend colder.
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Not good that this is already trending north and warmer at this range. Hopefully we can get our few inches tomorrow night to end the snow event drought, since the late week storm isn't looking good.
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Taking ratios into account, I would shave an inch to inch and a half off the Euro totals. That would still be a solid 3 to 3 and a half inches for NYC and my area. I would gladly sign up for that. I just hope that the NAM isn't right. As others have pointed out, it can sometimes do a good job with sneaky warm layers even though it's a terrible model overall.
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Even though NAM is a horrible model, it's understandable that its warm solution is causing us to be a little skeptical after everything we've been through this winter. Our luck has been so bad that it wouldn't be shocking if NAM ends up being right for a change for this one. That said, I think it's definitely more likely that we'll get an advisory level event from this. Too many other models are on board. RGEM looks pretty good (2 to 3 inches for our area). Euro and HRRR are nice and cold. I'd go with 2 to 4 for our area right now.
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Hopefully our luck is finally changing here near the end of winter. Could be a great week for us, but I'm cautiously optimistic. This winter has been so terrible that you expect things to fall apart, but we definitely have a much better chance this week.
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Such a close call for our area. We probably won't have a good idea until right before the event.
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Not bad. 2 to 3 inches for NYC on the RGEM.
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NAM (using Kuchera) gives NYC 1.5". Almost nothing for us here in Middlesex county.
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Yeah we had only very light radar echoes going over us. Too light to reach the ground. The better radar echoes missed us to the north unfortunately.
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Yeah definitely. Even though it has less upside, a weaker event gives us a better chance of seeing a little accumulating snow. In this pathetic winter, 2 inches would seem like a great event.
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18z RGEM looks as if it would be about 2 inches for NYC even though it's mostly snow. It's mainly light snow. This event seems to be trending colder and weaker.
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Might not even see a flake here today, but I'm glad that folks to the north got to see a little accumulating snow.
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The 10:1 map has about 4 inches for NYC, so I would guess the Kuchera would be somewhere between 2 and 3 inches. It's not as if this Euro run is showing that much snow for NYC, but it's certainly better than the other models.
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Yeah I'm not counting on getting a few inches of snow right now just because the Euro looks good. Other models don't look as good, and it's hard for me to be very optimistic about an event when we don't have much cold air in place before the storm. This could easily end up being more sleet too. But at least we can say the Euro keeps hope alive and we have a chance.
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UKMET came in warmer again. Hardly anything for NYC now. It shows a very nice event for northwest NJ.
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RGEM took away the widespread half inch for today. Other models and radar don't look very good either. Not looking good for our area now today ... we'll be lucky to see a light dusting.
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Euro did improve slightly for later today. It gives most of the area a half inch now. Looks like RGEM.
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The 10:1 maps are ridiculously inflated for this event. Can't take them seriously at all. This Euro run is showing a lot of sleet, which would really cut down totals.
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UKMET cut way back on the snow for the NYC area. Still a little snow, but not even half of what it had at 12z and it now says you have to go northwest to get significant amounts.
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RGEM now says we get a solid half inch tomorrow. How sad is it that I'm excited about that? lol
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RGEM has us right near the edge. Looks like it's showing a lot of sleet. NAM of course it a terrible model, and especially horrible in the long range. But of course we take a peek anyway. It's starting out very warm for this event. Rain even way to the northwest.
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18z RGEM pretty nice for extreme southern NJ too. It gives 1 to 2 inches down there, but it does get a little light snow up here with a quarter to half inch coating.
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Yep. Yesterday I talked about the possibility of our area being the screwzone in the middle. There's been a signal on the models for awhile that one batch of precip misses to the north while another batch misses to the south. But I've been hoping for changes since we finally have cold air in place. Right now it isn't looking great.
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I've been much more interested in tomorrow because it's the first time all winter that we've had air that's plenty cold for accumulating snow. Monday is still a huge question mark for that, with the borderline airmass. It would be frustrating if it misses south and southern NJ gets a decent snow tomorrow when we finally have cold air in place.
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Yeah it shifted well south. It gives 2 to 3 inches for southern NJ and nothing for us, lol. That would be fitting for this miserable winter.
