winterwx21

I guess you're a touch colder since you're a few miles north of me. Here all the snow is melting on contact.

Big flakes coming down. Temp has dropped to 35, but the ground is just too warm for any accumulation. Frustrating, but of course this was expected. A little non accumulating snow and then a lot of rain for our area.

Rain/snow mix here. 39 degrees.

CMC looks pretty warm for that event, but it's a week away so we'll keep an eye on it. At least it's a shot as you said.

What a shock, lol. There might be an inch or two of snow up in Sussex County where Walt is.

UKMET and HRRR also say you have to go to northwest NJ to see a little snow accumulation. Yep it's looking very likely that NYC will break the record.

It's gotten to the point that when we're at hour 84 we should just ignore the NAM and trust the RGEM. It's amazing how much more accurate RGEM is than NAM at that range. NAM doesn't seem to wake up until you get inside 48 hours.

Yeah I don't give the NAM any weight anymore. Trusting the RGEM is the way to go. It's amazing how superior RGEM is to NAM.

There's your predictable cave by the NAM. No snow for NYC on the 18z run. All you can do is laugh.

But you've said yourself that good patterns often don't produce. Also it wasn't long ago that you said the pattern looked good for late January, right after wednesday's cutter. Now it's pushed out to February. As others have said, we've been kicking the can all winter. I think when you're getting to the end of January without even an inch of snow, it makes sense to talk futility.

Yep. CMC also has a big cutter in early February, and even GFS now shows some warm air in the long range in early February. I don't think it's ever going to change this winter ... probably heading towards our worst ever.

RGEM wins as usual. That's a terrific model.

Yeah last night's Euro run showed us snowing at 18z Wednesday, while today's run shows us getting a mix at 18z.

It's a little bit of both. A little warmer and best forcing goes north. Bottom line is it went from showing a few inches for the NYC last night to almost nothing today. I'm sure NAM will start to back down soon too.

I would say if Burrow wins the Super Bowl this season (which I now believe will happen), we can elevate him to the best QB in the NFL. Or at least into a tie with Mahomes for the best QB in the NFL.

And if a compromise between those models happens (kind of what like GFS is showing), we'll probably get no accumulation. The snow would have to come in like a wall and be heavy to get accumulations in this situation. Light to moderate snow falling with temps above freezing and a warm ground won't cut it. If that happens, NYC's record will probably be broken.

Starting to see some flakes mixing in with the rain now. Who cares about non accumulating wet snow though.

Yep you have to go to extreme northwest NJ to get snow on the UKMET now. I'm sure NAM and Euro will come to reality soon. We're not getting a few inches of snow with the low tracking that far west and not much cold air in place.

RGEM was much closer to reality than NAM for today in the longer range though. Early NAM runs had this area getting a snowstorm while RGEM was all rain. RGEM ended up being right about it being all rain here. I don't see anyone getting the several inches of snow today that the early NAM runs had. NAM was WAY off.

12z GFS gives us about an inch of snow before the rain. It's going to have to snow heavily to give us an inch or so of snow though. Light to moderate won't cut it with temps above freezing and a warm ground. Even if RGEM is wrong about holding it back and no snow, I still wouldn't be surprised if it's just some wet snow falling that doesn't accumulate and the NYC record gets broken.

RGEM has been an excellent model, so it's hard for me to get interested in wednesday as long as RGEM doesn't want anything to do with it. NAM is such a crazy model and has been terrible, so I'm assuming it's going way overboard for wednesday. Even the 3km NAM doesn't look anything like the regular NAM.

They're both great.

The Giants deserve credit for playing very well, but they were playing the worst 13 win team ever last week. The Vikings had many games where they just barely beat mediocre to bad teams during the season. They were actually -3 on point differential during the season, so obviously they were extremely lucky to win 13 games. No surprise that they were 1 and done in the playoffs.

Not the RGEM. It just came in warm with no snow for us. Starts us out as rain. Remember what NAM did at hour 84 for tonight's storm. It started out showing us getting a snowstorm, while RGEM was very warm and all rain. RGEM ended up schooling NAM on tonight's storm, just like it has schooled NAM on most events the last few years. I'm guessing RGEM will be right again and we get no measurable snow wednesday. I'm not saying we can completely rule out the possibility of getting a small front end like some other models have. Is it possible to get an inch of slop that quickly gets washed away by the heavy rain wednesday night? Sure. But I think it's more likely that we'll get no accumulation. Temps are going to be above freezing, the ground is warm and the precip is coming in during the afternoon hours. It's going to have to snow heavily for a couple hours to get a decent coating on colder surfaces with that bad setup. Not impossible but knowing how everything else has ended up this winter, I'm guessing no accumulation.

Back to warm temps and rain at the end of the month on the Euro. So much for our better pattern late in the month. Nothing ever works out this winter. Time to enjoy this big football weekend and not waste any more time looking at these hopeless model runs.