Fozz

I’ve been wondering ever since I was a preteen in 2002 what would become of Baltimore’s snow climo with global warming, and the top of my mind was the awful winter of 2001-02 which would’ve still been awful even by 2020s standards. And even then I was thinking that if global warming proceeds the way that things were going, then Raleigh’s climo would be our endpoint. Of course, the early 00s was still a bit early to write off winter, but I doubt the upcoming generations that grow up in this region will experience at least one decent snowfall nearly every winter like we did as kids. The world is already at +1.3 to +1.4°C compared to the pre-industrial baseline. We are likely headed to something close to +2.5°C, so we’re on track to double the warming we’ve already had, but the impacts will probably be worse this time around. I do think the climate might stabilize late in the century at that higher baseline once cleaner energy sources take over, but the damage will be done, and my best guess is for what that means for Baltimore is a winter climo like late 20th century Raleigh.

The world is at +1.3 to +1.4°C compared to the pre-industrial baseline. Chances are that future warming will probably double this number by the end of the century. But the next 1.3°C will almost certainly be worse than what we’ve already had.

I lived further south during the Feb 2006 storm (and it was a good one even there with 15”), but one specific thing I remember was one of the TWC mets asking a guy in Boston about the upcoming storm (just before it started) and he basically said “It’s not going to be that bad, we’re only getting a foot” and I chuckled. As I recall even the TWC met was a little stunned after hearing that.

I’d say deep winter is over. But not winter itself.

I’m in Maryland until the weekend, so I had the chance to explore this glacier yesterday and early today, and it really was just like Feb 2007. It was rock solid, very slippery, easy to skid on, and you needed very good balance to even try venturing through the glacier. I measured around 6” depth as of this morning. And it had this very shiny glow especially under light that you rarely ever see normally. It’s been 19 years since I’ve last seen anything like this so you can say it’s rarer than a HECS. Not to mention, the Inner Harbor is partially frozen along with so many other bodies of water. The fun is ending with today’s warmer temps, but this was a hell of a run.

Radar looks good in your area.

I just departed from BOS and will be out for a week. I’m a little bummed to be missing the best part of this storm, especially now that Worcester is getting crushed.

A foot of snow already for those Essex county towns? That was so much faster than I expected.

Someone between Peabody and Gloucester is about to get over a foot of snow.

PDII absolutely was historic here and the January storm was comparable to it in this region. And yes, an 18” storm is a very big deal and a high-end MECS at the very least. It’s been a good winter in the area including yours. Vodka cold for weeks on end following an 18” storm what more can you ask for without getting into fantasies?

The GFS brings us PDIII

Yeah I’ve had my eye on the PD weekend for a while. Looks like a big hit incoming on the GFS. ETA: GFS taken verbatim is a PDIII

Miami is just a short flight away.

Bye bye Colts

Let the GFS dream of giving the South what the real world gave us in February 2010.

In long range GFS world, North Carolina is the new Jay Peak.

I was one of those kids back in the day. Sledding would be a disaster, but ice skating might work.

ORH is already near 50 to date. My part of town is a bit less but still up there. I think 80-90" is in reach.

If this is anything like Feb 2007, then I imagine the glacier as a slippery sheet of ice that you can slide on.

A very enticing setup possible around mid-month (h/t to psuhoffman in the mid-Atlantic forum). We've got a classic west-based -NAO but also a -PNA and trough over much of the Rockies and Plains, which can keep things from getting too suppressed and possibly bring a big one up the coast. I'd keep a close eye on this window.

Hey that looks like Worcester

I vaguely remember that cold snap, but missing the triple phaser ruined it for me.

Do you remember February 2007? It had a very similar situation to this. I was a lot younger but I remember around 5" of snow/sleet compacted and it was very hard to shovel, and the ground became a slippery sheet of ice, and was also followed by a long stretch of cold. As I recall, it basically had the impact of a 10-15" snowstorm. This latest one seemed a bit bigger but similar.

I'm about to head to MD early this coming week and so I'll have a chance to see this glacier for myself.

Yeah I was just gonna say, this is a textbook example of a blizzard. I don’t know why they’re hesitating.