Fozz

That was the storm that turned my elevation into a meme. Nearly 6” IMBY while the other side of town at 250’ had 2.5” of slop. And I was very annoying about it. I think it’s up in their air where that line will be this time. It could just as easily have a 2/3/2014 or Oct 2011 gradient.

Alta was incredible last January with multiple 20"+ storms. Couldn't have picked a better time.

I checked my iPhone weather app for my area, clicked on Saturday, selected Precipitation on the drop down, and wouldn't you know, it's calling for 13" of snow, nearly all of it before midnight Saturday night.

Usually only the really good winters have these kinds of sudden shifts for the better in the medium range. I can't say if this storm or this winter will be the same but it sure as hell isn't last year.

Just saw the GFS and GGEM... this must be too good to be true.

I think that’s also why many won’t just be happy with a 2-3” event, especially those who haven’t seen a warning-level storm in almost 8 years.

Yeah at this point cautious optimism is the way to go. A lot could change. It’s great to have a legit storm to track. And best of all if this doesn’t work IMBY there’s always ski country.

I would too, but I’m not sure I believe this map if it were to play out with those temp profiles.

Whitetail might be in store for Sunday if it’s any warmer than this…

So it sounds like it was at least 80% NS-driven, so might as well be considered a Miller B. That was probably the most intense snowstorm I've ever seen IMBY, with the way it just blew up at the perfect moment to clobber all of northern MD. Made even the other historic storms look very gentle, so I can see why a setup like that so rarely works out for us, whereas coastal New England is probably much more familiar with that type of system. I do remember many posters being nervous and skeptical of whether it would even work out, in spite of the perfect H5 vort passes that were modeled (probably due to the insane NAO), just because that type of Miller B screws us over nearly every other time.

The big ones rarely ever hit during midweek. I don't know why.

Was Feb 10, 2010 a purely NS-driven storm? Or did it phase with any STJ component?

As I recall it's rare to get a big one (10"+) before the 2nd half of January. Another reason to be cautious.

Taken verbatim, the GFS would give most of us a very scenic plastering.

Yeah it's a torch at the 850 and surface level, esp east of the Blue Ridge. Probably more amped than the GGEM

Yeah some people were freaking out in the lead up to Feb 2010. It’s always going to happen somewhere.

ICON is over a foot of snow for the cities.

Just a little. But nice upslope for the mountains.

Nice to see you back in Maryland!

Probably. Those events are always tricky around our neck of the woods. Sometimes we score big, but usually it's better to be skeptical.

I’m undecided on whether to head to Timberline next weekend. I think this will be a great storm there, but if we get a big one in the cities then I want to be home for that and might opt for Whitetail or Liberty in the evenings.

I wish I was old enough to remember 1993 and 1996 better. I do vaguely remember the insane drifts from Jan 1996 but I was so young at the time. Feb 2010 was definitely the all-timer with the two back-to-back blizzards. Jan 2016 comes close. And then PDII and Dec 2009 and the whole 2013-14 winter.

It’s been a while since there was much to talk about here. As for the weekend storm I’m a bit cautious about the cities and close suburbs (though I hope I’m wrong!), but ski country seems to have a very good chance so I’m really looking forward to it.

Happy New Year!

March can still bring real snow. The massive -NAO and deep trough will happen in April.