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Fozz

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  1. Fozz
    Dude. You live in New England. Even if you miss a storm, you’ll see another one next year or in a few years at the most. This isn’t Virginia. Your accordion talent is far more rare than any SNE blizzard. You’re a famous man with a Wikipedia page so embrace it and just roll with it if you can’t be here for one good storm.
  2. Fozz
    I’m very close to Quinsig lake so not sure if I’m in the hills, but I’m certainly on the east side.
  3. Fozz
    Yeah I’m stunned at the intensity and duration of this upcoming cold spell especially down south. Maryland will be in the deep freeze nearly as intensely as up here. I’m sure it’s happened in 1899 and 1979, maybe also 2015 to some extent but this has to be extraordinarily rare.
  4. Fozz
    Bro I’ve been to Kirkwood, Alta and Whistler a few years ago. They can easily get many feet of snow and the skiing is phenomenal especially with fresh powder.
  5. Fozz
    Great write up, and no complaints from me about your jackpot zones.
  6. Fozz
    Get the ticket. You can always make more money later especially with your rare skill and talent. Dont worry about $2000, just come back and enjoy the storm.
  7. Fozz
    Yeah when I saw that early redevelopment from TN to the Carolina coast, I knew it was a good sign.
  8. Fozz
    Yes, aside from 1996 this is as good as it gets for a Nina. And there will quite possibly be more storms to come, not to mention a deep freeze that may last for weeks. The extended range keeps the block remarkably stable and doesn’t seem to have any meaningful warmup in sight, so any snow or sleet that falls will probably last a long time.
  9. Fozz
    I’d say it’s tougher to get a big storm with double digits in the cities while staying all snow. A 1-3” clipper without precip worries is easy. But it takes a damn near perfect setup like February 2010 or January 2016 to get a slow moving coastal monster that delivers prolific totals, awesome dynamics, and doesn’t mix at all. And that’s why they’re so rare and memorable.
  10. Fozz
    Watches are up!
  11. Fozz
    When the Euro + ETA (predecessor to NAM) agreed on something, some guys like DT would take it to the bank.
  12. Fozz
    You know it’s a good winter when irrational hype over speculative models or forecasts is spreading like wildfire. I remember it happened in 2014 for the first time, and professional mets were so furious and had no idea how to stop it. Sometimes it was a random Facebook page, or an image of a control run showing 2’ of snow 10 days away. But the masses grabbed on to it and went bezerk.
  13. Fozz
    I wouldn’t trust the NAM at 84 hours but you never know.
  14. Fozz
    Based on the latest guidance and trends, probably 60-70%. It’s going to be a big one.
  15. Fozz
    Picked up 3” of snow last night. I am stunned, I thought we’d get a dusting to an inch at the most.
  16. Fozz
    I think the most likely fail is if it over-amps beyond the GGEM and drives the primary even further up. I think it’s unlikely, but that’s the only scenario I can think of now that suppression is practically out of the picture. If sleet/mixing can be kept at bay (literally lol), I don’t see how this isn’t a regionwide KU.
  17. Fozz
    The entire DC-BOS corridor gets clobbered with 12-18”+ with generous totals well into the interior. We haven’t had a storm like this in ages.
  18. Fozz
    This is going to be the biggest snowstorm in a decade, and the consensus for a major to historic storm is robust. Also, you’ve been around long enough to see what other storms in the past 25 years have done. Know your climo and enjoy.
  19. Fozz
    So the UKMET too is a solid MECS regionwide? Let’s get the Euro on board
  20. Fozz
    I’ve learned a long time ago that if you want all snow, you want the primary low to transfer from around Tennessee and not seep into Kentucky or further north. If you ever worry about mixing, watch for that. Learned the hard way in Feb 2007. But even a great storm can have some mixing. Like PDII or Feb 10, 2010.
  21. Fozz
    The mid-Atlantic will be fine. At least DC-Baltimore. It’s Richmond and the southern areas that might see this slip away. Just as PDII became a tedious sleet storm for them.
  22. Fozz
    The GGEM…. I don’t even know what to say..
  23. Fozz
    Bear in mind the previous GFS was a petty 1-3” for most of us
  24. Fozz
    PDII all over again?
  25. Fozz
    Oh my….
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