Fozz

For DCA (due to its low bias) and southern MD, maybe. But generally I’d put the bar at 18”. The old rule of thumb is top 10 snowstorm on record.

Man I’d love to be in Maryland for this as I’ve waited 10 years for this kind of storm, but it will be tough for me. No need to feel bad though, I’m way up north now and can look forward to single digit highs this weekend You all better enjoy this, especially @SnowenOutThere and other young guys who’ve never seen a double digit storm above age 8-10.

If this thing becomes a HECS, then your middle schooler might get most of the week off regardless of Monday. Thats what happened in 1996, 2003, and 2010.

I see it now… it’s not that it shifted north, I think there’s a sneaky second wave that the last run didn’t have.

Really? I don’t see much of a shift at all.

That’s why I don’t think this will bury Raleigh. It will probably be DC/Baltimore, with Philly and NYC in the game for north trends plus SNE if we’re lucky.

Also stays below freezing for most of us from Friday to the end of the run.

It’s like 2009-10 down south all over again plus 2014-15 up here all at once.

Yeah the UKMET is 18-24” for the whole region. Probably a best case scenario which also brings MECS totals to SNE. I might have to check the flights if this keeps up.

You think the mid-Atlantic is getting a HECS out of this? I might need to make plans yikes.

Maybe it does, but your recent 8” storm also had “out to sea written all over it” until the 11th hour.

It’s a huge jump north and scrapes SNE with advisory snows (with low end warning snows in the coastal areas) while burying DC. Not a bad place to be 6 days out. That being said, at this point knowing everything we know up to now, I’d rather be back in MD this coming weekend than up here. Not every big overrunning/Miller A storm shifts north enough. Many do, but some don’t.

The iPhone weather app. I have no idea where they’re getting those numbers from. It is best not to tempt normies with these speculative forecasts because they will spread it like wildfire.

Ended up with 4.2”, same as the official ORH site. A solid event on top of 2” the prior day. It really is a winter wonderland.

I don’t know what this is worth but the iPhone weather app is calling for 16-20” on Sunday. I’m not sure which model this is coming from (ETA apparently the UKMET shows a big hit) but I can easily see a scenario where this happens. A massive overrunning event from the south running into a bitterly cold air mass can get it done. And can come north. This looks a lot like PDII, and while it initially wasn’t supposed to hit NYC let alone SNE, it eventually dropped 27” in Boston (and a similar total in Baltimore where I lived - and I was an impressionable preteen boy).

Snow is still coming down steadily with excellent growth - up to 3.5” new

Moderate to heavy snow, 2.8” new. A wonderful winter night

My mistake… I meant March 2014. I must be getting old if I’m mixing up decades.

We need that SE ridge to flex hard, because it’s up against a very potent polar vortex that reminds me of March 2014 (when every system trended south and crushed DC, while 40N and up were high and dry and very cold).

The AI GFS is an insane run but I’m starting to think it overamps too many storms.

Yeah you’re teasing, but knowing the climo and the track of the storm at this time of year and with antecedent frigid air, I’d take my chances with a 979 off the coast in a heartbeat.

GFS OP drops the PV sooner than previous runs, crushes everything to the point of Congrats Myrtle Beach, and leaves the next weekend frigid and dry.

BOX’s latest map (issued 20 mins ago) has the jackpot (6”+) squarely around Attleboro but really most spots between PVD and BOS.

Winter is back

Most of the guidance had my area getting dryslotted, while areas just to my west would get 3-5”. But today was a nice surprise, got a dusting that melted, then it’s been snowing again all afternoon. Currently 2” on the dot and everything is covered. 33F