Fozz

Seems like the good stuff will be sitting in our area for a while. Radar looks excellent.

Sitting in a sweet band now. Just over 2” new

Oh ok it was one of the first posts I saw when I opened the thread and I was a bit shocked for a second. But glad to hear it’s a great event!

Are you serious?? Or is that your total snowpack?

I do. In 2010

29/17 Really looking forward to this. We haven't had a good run of deep winter in years.

Does the timing with daylight really matter in mid-January? I always thought it’s much more of a factor in late February and March.

We've been spoiled with the big ones for a long time, especially from 1996 to 2016. When half of DC and Baltimore's top 10 snowstorms in the last 130 years were in that 20 year period, then you know it's been a golden age for the mid-Atlantic HECS. https://www.weather.gov/lwx/winter_storm-pr#TopDaySnowfall

Easily MECS level in the cities, and definitely historic and possibly an all timer in the interior. I can’t speak for it but those in the blue and white areas who are old enough to remember truly witnessed something exceptional.

It was historic for the N/W areas and interior. Naso much for the coastal plain.

When there’s a strong -NAO in the first half of a season (esp El Niño), it tends to return later. Happened in 2009-10 and many other such winters. I think a big storm is fair game for later this season. This isn’t 2010 or 1996, but it sure isn’t last year either.

I’ll be so happy with 2” Anything more is a bonus

Ended up with 4.4” IMBY. It was a fun storm and very much needed. Hope to see much more on the way.

Just got back from a long drive from WV. 2.9” And now we’re in a warning? Let’s gooooo!

I was at Timberline yesterday, near Canaan Valley. Went from heavy snow via upslope to sunny and bitterly cold.

Yeah I think a WWA for 2-4”, and maybe 3-5” in the favored spots should work. No need to jump the gun on a warning IMO.

Did we just get NAM’d for an event 90% of us gave up on?

Probably their feast or famine stage. I think it's like psuhoffman and Terpeast said, the changing climate is probably shifting the Hadley cells and speeding up the NS with not as much digging south. That means more Miller Bs which favor 40N and less opportunity for us. But if that trend continues, then we'll probably see a lot more New England exclusive Miller Bs in the future. Even Philly got 45% more snow than BWI since 2010, which is also ridiculous. From the late 19th century to 2010, they averaged 3% more snow than BWI, and actually had many decades with less. Some of their recent disparity was certainly luck, especially 2013-14.

Since you mentioned NYC, I took a look at the data between Baltimore and NYC to see how much disparity there was each decade. Turns out, from the late 19th century to 1990, NYC averaged 25% more snow than Baltimore. The highest decade I found was 75% more for NYC (1940s), while the 1960s actually had slightly more snow in Baltimore. In the 90s and 00s (including 09-10), NYC averaged around 35% more than Baltimore. But since 2010, NYC averaged more than 2x the snow of Baltimore, which is completely unprecedented. It is very apparent just from the raw numbers that something has clearly changed. The NY and NNJ snow weenies should take this all as a cautionary tale, because the change isn't stopping any time soon and they aren't going to like where it may eventually take them.

The mineral pyrite (/ˈpaɪraɪt/ PY-ryte),[6] or iron pyrite, also known as fool's gold, is an iron sulfide with the chemical formula FeS2 (iron (II) disulfide). Pyrite is the most abundant sulfide mineral.[7] Pyrite cubic crystals on marl from Navajún, La Rioja, Spain (size: 95 by 78 millimetres [3.7 by 3.1 in], 512 grams [18.1 oz]; main crystal: 31 millimetres [1.2 in] on edge) Pyrite's metallic luster and pale brass-yellow hue give it a superficial resemblance to gold, hence the well-known nickname of fool's gold. The color has also led to the nicknames brass, brazzle, and brazil, primarily used to refer to pyrite found in coal.[8][9] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pyrite

I used to wonder about that wide disparity between DC/Baltimore and NYC. Seems like that faster NS you mentioned due to the elephant, that was less willing to dig south probably had a big role in that disparity, and led to a lot of Miller Bs that buried New England and sometimes NYC, but screwed our area.

It seems like the 2016 super Nino was a major game changer in terms of climate and global temps. If you look at the data, it becomes apparent that these super Ninos tend to break new ground when it comes to global warming. Same thing happened after 1998.

In Deep Creek, right?

You might be slightly exaggerating. How much snow did you get in winter 2020-21? I remember it being a lot, and I doubt SC in the old climate would’ve gotten that.

It is days like today that convince me that dead ratter seasons are preferable to winters like this. The rug pulls are just so tiring.