Fozz
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Everything posted by Fozz
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3-5 has been the ceiling for basically every event here since 2018. So why not?
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That’s not my point though. My point is that if they aren’t including the northern counties then they aren’t expecting as much there. But the map isn’t consistent with that.
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Lolll I’m in the bullseye here.
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Their WSW begs to differ though. If this really was their forecast then they’d include the northern counties in the watch.
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I have a feeling this will verify almost perfectly. Yet another disappointing shaft on the way for the Baltimore crowd.
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So where is that “it’s supposed to snow” line? Somewhere near Fredericksburg?
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This is absolute perfection and it would be the biggest storm in almost a decade for many… if only it verifies that way and we assume that all accumulates properly.
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I was ready to give up on this storm. And then I saw the Euro. Let’s pull this north!
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Where I live, we had 8.5” in March 2018. That may have been the last time here. I was out during January 6 this year but that may have been around 5-6”. How much did you end up with?
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Well that is a disappointing run.
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You’re moving to Hunt Valley? We’ll be next door neighbors.
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I’d say for the majority of us this is exactly where we’d want it by now. Gives most of us a solid 5-10” but also plenty of room for north shifts.
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Time for that southeast ridge to flex a little harder!
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Coming from someone who lived there a couple years ago, the winters are nice but living there is not all it’s cracked up to be.
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Especially 80% chance this far out. Not even “chance of snow” or “snow likely” on Tuesday. Just “Snow”.
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Beautiful. I am starting to get optimistic. Is it too much for warning criteria to be my bar?
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Exactly what I was about to say. Knowing our climo and knowing that the mid January 2024/2025 cold ain’t happening most of the time, I’d go with the big dog. Makes it a lot more memorable.
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This iPhone forecast for tomorrow is lolz. Seems like they take their snowfall forecasts straight from the GFS clown maps that count all frozen and mixed precip at 10:1 ratio snow, then they come up with these numbers.
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Too many correct words
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Fredericksburg gets a double whammy. Two back to back warning storms.
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I’m ok with this latest GFS. With the southeast ridge in place, we can easily afford for this to be south of us at this range.
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Yeah but without the clean block we had in 2016 or 2010, we can’t really get too excited this far out.
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This reminds me of February 2007 when we also had the potential for a big time KU snowstorm, but we got a last minute rug pull and it became the memorable VD sleet storm for most of us, with zr a little further south. If I recall, that was also a good but very imperfect setup where we didn’t quite have a clean block in place, so it shifted north and we got mixing.
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GFS is now an epic hit for most of us, not suppressed like 0z. 12-18” MECS. Wish we could lock this all up but there’s still a week to go.
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tbh since we are in a +NAO, I’d rather be too far north 6 days out than with MECS totals close to the mix line. We’ve got plenty of time. I can’t let superstitions get the best of me. Learned that lesson a month ago.
