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Everything posted by Fozz
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I never did the 6 hour thing but my settled depth is around 13” new. Storm seems to be wrapping up but it was a very solid event and I just finished shoveling my car. This isn’t the biggest storm I’ve ever lived through but it’s certainly one of the most brutal, considering the temps were in the single digits all day and only by midnight did it rise to 11°F.
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I’d say that’s how the 10” Cockeysville measure might make sense. Probably cleared the snow and then added the sleet total.
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Ultimately that’s how I felt about February 2007. This seems similar except with a bit more snow. And the best part is it that this is just the beginning of a very memorable deep freeze. And of course this broke the years-long stretch of not having a 6”+ storm in Baltimore and slightly north. I don’t think this is the last of it. Hopefully we’ve turned a corner.
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I was just going to ask about it because that would be a jackpot if true. But I’m very skeptical. Is there anyone close to that area who can verify if the snow continued much beyond 10am?
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Yeah my family is near Baltimore and while they got a solid 6-7”, the changeover is happening fast. I thought it would take until early afternoon. NAM seems brutally effective at detecting those warm layers aloft that global models miss. I thought it was too amped and warm, but reality may be proving it right.
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I thought the general public would be thrilled that it didn’t happen. Maybe I underestimated them.
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My mom sent me several pictures and videos and that sounds about right. It looks like around 6” or so and the snow is very fine and powdery.
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If that 15% of being away in the winter is during peak climo, then you’re going to miss a disproportionate number of big storms. Thats just how it works. Late January and early February is the prime window for KU storms. Not early December or mid March even if they can sometimes happen.
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The reach of this storm is breathtaking and probably is up there with past HECS. This shall rank high on the KU scale.
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You’ve gotta own the decisions you make in your life and not throw a tantrum if something didn’t go your way (like a New England snowstorm while you’re away)
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Yep, that tracks. I have faint memories of seeing snow in NYC in like 1994 (which of course was a big year), but the first storm I really remember as a distinct event was January 1996, but it's still a very faint memory. Vivid for me is anything from 2002 onwards.
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I know my solid weather memories go back to around age 11. For example I remember PDII far better than March 2001. I've also seen many younger guys say they can't remember big weather events very well before 10-12.
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I'm trying to assume the Kuchera ratio is overdone (which those widespread 20"+ totals are based on), but not sure what is a realistic guess. Maybe 12-14:1?
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So 0.8" of QPF from 3pm to 9pm (here in Worcester) has to easily be close to a foot of snow in that timeframe alone. Maybe 14-16" in Boston? I still can't believe what I'm seeing.
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I keep thinking of PDII and even a week ago saw it as the most obvious analogue. It was preceded by a bigger cold airmass with a 1040+ high and robust overrunning system that didn’t have much of a strong low. The difference with this one is that it shifted further north. That one was a DC to Boston blockbuster.
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Same here. It would be my biggest snowfall outside a ski resort in a decade. I’d be thrilled with a foot but I think it will easily exceed that.
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Awesome, I think it’s fair to assume 12:1 ratios at least even without getting carried away, this is a widespread 18”+ storm underway if other guidance matches these QPF totals which they seem to.
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I was in Cumberland RI... that one was a heartbreaking screwjob. @TheSnowman probably remembers this one all too well.
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Just days ago this storm seemed poised to bury the mid-Atlantic while giving us a few inches consolation prize at best. We have come so far since then, now on track for a full fledged MECS and the biggest storm in years for many. I am beyond excited, planning for baked cookies, hot chocolate, and a pizza run. Whether it's 12" or 19" I'll enjoy it all the same.
