Fozz

Honestly they probably had multiple storms with those rates, so I can't say. I'd guess either Boxing Day 2010 or Jan 2011.

Yes they had an incredible run. So good that they surpassed the average snowfall for State College for a little while, which used to be unheard of.

You should've been around in 2010. The New York crowd really lost it when Feb 6 2010 completely screwed them over. Most of New England (outside the mountains) got screwed over and over again throughout the season. In the end, I almost felt bad for them. Of course, the key word is almost.

I’m surprised… I could’ve sworn we had some upper 70s January days in the past. I wouldn’t put it past BWI to hit 80 today but will probably just fall short.

It’s a historic day (in a sad way imo) for DC’s climate history. There’ve been many close calls even in the distant past, but I’m pretty sure today is the first time DC has ever recorded 80 in January.

These March 2001 jokes just don’t hit the same way for those of us who are under 35

Might as well just head to the Poconos instead

I'll be out of town so you can bank on it. 3-6" for the coastal plain and 6-10" N/W is my first call.

That's amazing. Hope we can get something similar this month.

Yeah we'd better get a big one. Were you here in Jan 2016? I know you missed out on a lot of them, except Dec 2009. And even for the rest of us it's been 8 years now. I will say I haven't felt this confident about it since 2016.

It was a strong Nino but not a super Nino.

Looks and feels almost like last week didn't happen at all. Yesterday was really the last day of the snowpack and the day it basically disappeared. Now we have very few traces remaining. It was a solid 9-10 days.

A 40” season in psuhoffman’s area is just slightly above average. But a 40” season in DCA is historic.

I’d like to see lower heights near NF and not a WAR if you want to be super ambitious. But overall it’s a great look for a 1 month period.

How did 2016-17 end up so atrocious?

Yes it is representative of most people who live inside the beltway, though even there DCA seems to be on the lower end of the range. But that’s very different from representing the entire DC/Baltimore metro area. Especially when even people east of the fall line say that it doesn’t reflect their winter climate.

Mdecoy just needs to wait a few weeks then he won’t have to go very far to chase.

I think BWI and even IAD are much more representative of the region.

DCA is not representative of this region and should not be used to generalize the winter climo of the whole area. It has good data but it’s a very warm spot at zero elevation on a river in the center of a heat island.

The March optimism comes from the longwave pattern that is projected all the way until at least mid-March. DCA averages around 12” for the whole season, so it will really take a lot to get nearly a whole season worth of snow in just the last 2-3 weeks of it being realistically possible to snow. Also, places north and west of DCA do a lot better in March than DCA does. IAD has had many more double digit March totals than DCA since 1960. If you’re in the coastal plain then you might need to temper your March expectations but even then the first half of the month can still work.

Yeah I didn't want to say it but if everything goes our way this could be an appetizer for something bigger down the line.

GFS is showing a possible signal for the week of Feb 5th. ETA: looks like a suppressed southern slider. Probably worth keeping an eye on that window.

Weeklies are showing a very strong signal for the VDay to PD period, especially with such strong mean height anomalies 3 weeks out. Also could be a 50/50 low. Everything looks locked and loaded.

If this turns out the way the Euro weeklies are advertising, then a 30”+ season for the cities should easily be in play. Maybe 40+ if we get a HECS.

Seems like the weeklies just lock a very stable eastern trough and Greenland block throughout the whole run. Can it be trusted that far out, or is it simply projecting based on Nino climo?