Fozz

Looks like less confluence than previously expected and maybe not all models are catching on fully to it in his estimation. If that means frontogenesis and the best lift happen further N/E, that can bring us what Ray is thinking.

That’s one heck of a bold call, but I can see it happening if I’m very lucky. Hope you’re right.

It’s not a screw job if there’s less to your east. 2” > a mere coating

The NAM is just a return to reality. Nobody actually believed the 6z QPF when it was completely alone, right? Especially knowing its biases to overamp these systems.

Here in Worcester it was a half white Christmas. Snow is patchy, but probably still has majority coverage.

Yeah it was a legendary winter in the colder suburbs of DC/Baltimore, went all the way from early December to the end of March and by the end even I was sick of the cold, which almost never happens. I consider it a close second to 2009-10 where I’m from in the mid-Atlantic.

If this storm actually delivers for SNE, then the ICON will deserve lots of kudos. For days the ICON was alone in seeing this, but can’t celebrate just yet.

For once the trend might be our friend. We needed to get NAMd

Radar is looking a lot better now and I might be heading outside. LFG

It was raining with a few mangled flakes. Now seems to be changing over to snow. I just want 1”

We all want the ICON to be right about Friday/Saturday but it must be a worse model than I thought if even that isn’t bringing any hopium.

Home Alone 3 is very underrated, and it’s especially a fun movie for winter weather weenies. It’s not a classic like the first two, but the criminals are a lot smarter and dangerously shrewd.

Well this is disappointing.

I did two ski trips out west that season. It was an all-timer at Alta/Snowbird and the snow was phenomenal. Needless to say, this better not be a repeat, but I’m skeptical of ensemble means that are 2-3 weeks away.

Yeah I just took a look at the guidance and consensus is growing on a nice 2-4” event. And since it will be cold enough afterwards, that means we’d get a White Christmas.

It wasn’t just luck, we had a classic west based -NAO in a strong El Niño. Super Ninos are usually warm and boring unless we get that ideal setup, then a HECS is in play.

When is it reasonable to expect something more than a basic 1-3” event?

Hartford averaged 37” in the 1930s

That early Feb storm was a screw job for a lot of people, myself included when I was in RI.

2020-21 was actually the one good year, although winter ended way too early after mid-Feb. But aside from that, every other year after 2017-18 ranged from 41-54”. I wouldn’t complain too much if this winter ends up in that range, but man I want a MECS every year.

I was looking at past ORH winters where the total to date was single digits by New Years. It looks like seasonal totals of 35-50” were common. I also grouped the average snowfall of every 5-7 year stretch since 1980 and found that the snow drought eras averaged around 50-55”. That includes the last 7 seasons, as well as the 80s. Of course, I’m at a lower elevation than ORH so I can expect probably 5-10” less than those numbers. Needless to say, knowing where I come from, I’ll be thrilled to hit climo.

It was 12 degrees this morning, with a fresh covering of 1.5” of snow in mid-December. Deep winter at its best

If they’re showing that a White Christmas is on the table, then yes I’m very interested.

I’ll try to make it

I wish this wasn’t fantasyland.