Fozz

Let us know how much you get from the storm... I’m very curious to know. It’s certainly a really tough call since you and my old home are sitting right at the gradient.

Yeah I’m thinking @North Balti Zen should stay the course on his planned trip.

I'm pretty sure that's still snow. Just might not accumulate that well for those few hours. And that's if it doesn't shift back SE.

grrrr.... I'm on the wrong side of that little front. Must be a boundary layer because the sounding otherwise looks good.

Sounds like a very mid-Atlantic mindset. I'm used to thinking in much of the same way for many years considering where I came from.

I'd wait until the 12z GFS and Euro run through before making a cancellation. Or maybe even 18z.

This is way, way inland at 54.

That surface low looks to be right at the benchmark. Perfect track for SNE.

I was just about to mention the 22nd. GFS definitely has the signal and the blocking still appears to be in place.

The NAM appears to be running on schedule, FWIW.

My understanding of H5 vort maps isn't the best, but when I compared 12z at 72 hours to 18z at 66 hours, there seemed to be a clear south shift of the best forcing, and it seems to be due to a stronger high to the north. In case I am reading this wrong, what else should I look for to better understand the dynamics?

My best guess is because a lot more normies now talk about specific model runs whenever a snowstorm is on the way, especially since 2014. I guess social media encourages hype and it became an easy outlet to spread these kinds of maps to the masses. So as a result the local channels are catering to what the audience probably wants to see. Of course I don’t agree with TV mets doing this, but I guess it’s now good for business.

That’s not actually his forecast. He’s showing some RPM model run, so yeah the headline is misleading.

Winter storm watch is up for many. URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA 345 PM EST Mon Dec 14 2020 CTZ002>004-MAZ017>023-RIZ001>008-150445- /O.NEW.KBOX.WS.A.0004.201217T0000Z-201217T1800Z/ Hartford CT-Tolland CT-Windham CT-Northern Bristol MA- Western Plymouth MA-Eastern Plymouth MA-Southern Bristol MA- Southern Plymouth MA-Barnstable MA-Dukes MA- Northwest Providence RI-Southeast Providence RI-Western Kent RI- Eastern Kent RI-Bristol RI-Washington RI-Newport RI- Block Island RI- Including the cities of Hartford, Windsor Locks, Union, Vernon, Putnam, Willimantic, Taunton, Brockton, Plymouth, Fall River, New Bedford, Mattapoisett, Chatham, Falmouth, Provincetown, Vineyard Haven, Foster, Smithfield, Providence, Coventry, West Greenwich, East Greenwich, Warwick, West Warwick, Bristol, Narragansett, Westerly, Newport, and New Shoreham 345 PM EST Mon Dec 14 2020 ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON... * WHAT...Heavy snow possible. Total snow accumulations of 6 or more inches possible. Winds could gust as high as 40 mph along the immediate coast. * WHERE...Northern Connecticut, Rhode Island and southeastern Massachusetts. * WHEN...From Wednesday evening through Thursday afternoon. * IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. The hazardous conditions could impact the Thursday morning commute. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Snow developing by Wednesday evening and becoming heavy at times Wednesday night into early Thursday. Snow tapering off by Thursday afternoon. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Monitor the latest forecasts for updates on this situation. && $$

A dusting vs almost 3”. Impressive contrast.

That’s what I was thinking as well. Simply based on climo and the most recent guidance, I’m thinking more like 6-12” (or perhaps 5-10” per MillvilleWx) for the nearby north and west Baltimore suburbs such as Cockeysville, Owings Mills, and probably also Reisterstown, with the 12”+ totals north and west of a line from Hereford to Mt Airy. I think @Ellinwood’s map is a better guess.

What is your reason for thinking anyone north of Hartford and PVD will get less than 8"?

Emmitsburg is a very nice little town, which I've always passed on my way to ski Liberty, which is right on the other side of the border. The surrounding landscape will certainly give it a very wintry feel.

I'm fine with this, assuming the QPF is realistic with the track it takes for this storm. But I don't want this any further south.

You’re just rooting for New England if that’s the case.

Honestly I’d be thrilled with half of that total, and I think that’s well within our reach.

Wow there’s a Fozz jackpot right there.... can we please lock this up??

Chasing is so rewarding when it succeeds. Hope it works out for you.

I think @MillvilleWx would have the best answer on that, especially since his mesoscale analysis is always top notch.