Fozz

January 2016 was one of my all time favorites back in MD. Second only to Feb 10, 2010.

January 2016 was going to be another Feb 2010 for NYC, until it shifted just far enough north to get them HECS totals.

You've gotta hope the storm isn't so amped, and that the 50/50 low and/or the Canadian high is strong enough to shunt the storm east. A big disadvantage of December storms is the very warm ocean, so the track matters a great deal especially for the coastal plain.

2003-04 also had a very disappointing second half.

Nov-Dec 1989 had a few decent storms for DC, along with one of the greatest cold periods of all time. But then once the clock hit 1990, the rest of the winter torched.

It's a solid run for both of us... 12"+. The preponderance of the guidance basically agrees and several runs have actually improved compared to 0z. Only real exception is the GFS. Yes we have a strong 50/50 and 1030 mb high, but unless we get early February 2010 confluence, I think being fringed like the GFS shows is unlikely.

I'm feeling much better about this now. Not only because the GFS is still alone, but also because other models (UKMET, GGEM) are trending north. We'll see shortly what the Euro shows.

Nice to see the trend in the right direction for both the GGEM and UKMET.

Since when did the UKMET have low verification score?

Snow showers in Nashville, rain on Jay peak. What a time to be alive.

Glad to see the GFS is most likely still alone.

Just the GFS and its ensembles. We'll see if the GGEM, UKMET or Euro catch on to this. Hopefully not, of course.

You sure it won't be the other way around? This is the third run in the row that the GFS has done this, so it's not like last night when you could maybe dismiss it as a fluke run. Not to mention we do have a monstrous 50/50 low and strong Canadian high.

Yep, it has a changeover to very heavy snow in the favored spots afterwards. Multiple inches per hour.

Well never mind. Incredible hit for the northern tier even if Kuchera ratios are a bit overdone. @psuhoffman come on this is an excellent run up your way.

Does that map count sleet as snow? If it does then it may be misleading, though I have a feeling that I-70 and north are still looking solid.

Yeah let's hope not. The storm strengthens at literally the perfect timing here.

Euro says early Thursday morning will be an incredible sight!

UKMET is so close to being a great hit here, I can’t even complain at this range.

This GFS is bringing back my dark memories of early December 2018 in the mid-Atlantic

Normally I’d trust the GFS over the GGEM (I recall the GGEM being not that good), but the drastic run to run shifts from the GFS don’t make it look very credible at the moment.

Wow... this is ungodly.

It is not wise to unnecessarily hype a storm when things are far from certain. Not sure if you remember March 2013 or March 2001.

I was 12 years old at the time in MD, and that was my second winter of tracking the weather. 2002-03 was nearly as good in the mid-Atlantic as it was in SNE, so I have all kinds of great memories of that one as well. I was actually out of town for the Christmas storm, which might be my one disappointment of the whole season, but I was told it delivered a quick 6-7" where I lived after changing over from rain. And then PDII remained my all time favorite for many years. I was too young to remember 1996 well.